2011 Preview Blitz: ACC Schedule Breakdown

Producing national contenders hasn’t been the ACC’s strong suit in the BCS era. The conference has just two wins all-time under the system and one national champion. A promising Florida State team could change that, if quarterback EJ Manuel effectively takes over where Christian Ponder left off.

Otherwise, this year’s ACC lacks true BCS contender chops. That’s no slight on a conference that top-to-bottom will be strong. Eleven of its 12 teams are very real bowl game contenders by my prognosis; nine should actually land in the postseason.

Running The Gauntlet

Boston College plays just a single home game in October, hosting Wake Forest on 10/1. From there the Eagles get consecutive trips to Clemson, Virginia Tech and Maryland. Waiting for BC’s return to Chestnut Hill? Florida State. That’s as brutal a four-game stretch as any played in the ACC.

BC plays the most difficult overall schedule in the conference, both in terms of 2010 record, home-away draws and 2011 talent. The combined 2010 record of the Eagles’ 11 FBS opponents is 87-54, and nine played in bowl games. The Eagles draw Northwestern at home to open the season, then UCF on the road, and takes to South Bend for the fifth consecutive meeting against Notre Dame since renewing that rivalry in 2007. Each team has two wins in that timespan.

In conference, the Eagles draw the opponents they’d likely beat on the road, Duke and Wake Forest at home, and the games BC would most benefit from hosting — Clemson, Maryland and Miami — are on the road. The program’s bowl game streak, currently at 12 seasons, should extend with All-America potential returners like Montel Harris and Luke Kuechly. It won’t be an easy road, however.

Difficult Debuts

Randy Edsall’s first four games as Maryland’s head coach are all in College Park. Not bad, right? Well the Terrapins open on primetime Labor Day vs. Miami, get a bye week, welcome Big East favorite West Virginia, then comes a very talented Temple squad. The Terps could be 3-0, and just as easily 0-3 when Towson kicks off UM’s October slate.

First-year Miami head coach Al Golden bested Edsall a season ago at Temple with a bend-don’t-break defense. UConn accrued 390 yards, but failed to score touchdowns on two red zone opportunities. Miami-Maryland bears a resemblance to Temple-UConn on a larger scale. Like last season’s Connecticut team, this UM team has a capable rushing attack. But the defense retuning in Coral Gables is stronger than what Golden had in Temple. The meeting is an interesting measuring stick for where each coach’s new program is. Both teams seem capable of double-digit wins, but seven wins is just as likely.

Coincidentally, the new sideline general of The U Golden opens in somewhat similar fashion. After traveling to Maryland for the opener, Miami hosts a suspension-depleted but still strong Ohio State, then Kansas State.

The Main Event

The BCS championship match-up in January could be decided the first Saturday of September when Oklahoma tussles with Florida State in Tallahassee. OU spanked FSU a season ago in what was the Seminoles’ worst and only double-digit loss, 47-17. Most telling that day was the Sooners’ nearly 400 yards passing.

Landry Jones is back under center and will pose the most difficult challenge FSU faces in an opposing quarterback once again. He led the Sooners in converting 28 first downs on the FSU defense. OU was one of four opponents to break the 20-point barrier against FSU. Not coincidentally, the Seminoles lost all four.

Backing Into Contention?

A Virginia Tech hallmark under Frank Beamer is playing an ambitious out-of-conference slate. Beamer has not shyed from competition: Boise State last year, Alabama and Nebraska in 2009, at Nebraska in 2008 and at LSU in 2007. Playing such games has built BCS championship road blocks for some very talented Hokie teams. It’s somewhat fitting in a season VT is as much “rebuilding” as Beamer’s program does that it plays a schedule condusive to a title run.

Now, that isn’t to imply the Hokies have a cake walk back to the ACC Championship game. The season opens with Appalachian State. As Labor Day weekend inches closer, you can bet you’ll hear more and more about this match-up given ASU’s FBS credentials and Va. Tech dropping a game to James Madison a season ago. In DeAndre Pressley, VT must contain a quarterback very much like the Hokies’ leader of a season ago, Tyrod Taylor.

That’s also the first game sans Taylor in shotgun. Also gone is 2009 breakout star Ryan Williams, as well as 2010 leading rusher Darren Evans. The three accounted for the lion’s share of rushing duties the last two seasons. Logan Thomas replaces Taylor, and David Wilson should see more work than his 113 carries of a season ago. Thomas earned praise coming out of spring ball, but needs to be sharp out of the gate against a game FCS challenger.

The Mountaineers and Week 3 opponent Arkansas State just might pose the most realistic OOC threats to the Hokies. VT faces an East Carolina team that ranked near the top nationally in passing with former Boston College quarterback Dominique Davis leading the attack, the Pirate defense was porous. Marshall awaits in Week 4, then VT jumps into the conference slate.

ACC play is very manageable for the conference’s BCS representative the last four seasons. VT’s four league road trips are to Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia and Georgia Tech. All four finished below .500 a season ago. Drawing Miami, Clemson, Boston College and Maryland in Blacksburg is certainly a boon to the Hokies’ conference title chances, and the Hokies avoid Florida State in the regular season. The makings for an unbeaten conference season are all there.

Bowling Reservations

Virginia hasn’t bowled since 2007. For Duke, the drought extends to 1994. Head coaches with the ability to get these programs back to the postseason man the sidelines, and each roster has enough talent to get the job done. But in a balanced ACC, following through on that potential means pulling off an upset or two. The Cavaliers and Blue Devils have some ripe-for-the-picking dates on their schedules.

Weeks 3-5, UVa. faces three teams I foresee bowling but all are winnable games for the Wahoos. First is ACC rival North Carolina. Just last year, the Tar Heels emphatically snapped a losing streak dating back to 2005 in Charlottesville, 44-10. Despite the tough loss, UVa. has had UNC’s number in recent years both at home and on the road. The last two meetings in Chapel Hill, Carolina has scored a combined

A pair of non-conference opponents then roll through Charlottesville, Southern Miss and Idaho. Both figure to compete in their respective conferences, and both bring with them capable quarterbacks. Containing Austin Davis and Brian Reader will be paramount for a Cavalier defense ranked 25th against the pass. Chase Minnifield returns off a six-interception 2010, while defensive end Cam Johnson will anchor the rush. The combination will challenge high-passing percentage offenses, which both USM and Idaho employ.

Defeating a Sun Belt opponent isn’t an upset per se, but given 1. Duke travels to Florida International, and the Blue Devils haven’t exactly been road warriors and 2. FIU has been to a bowl game in the last 15 years, the Golden Panthers can be seen as an important key to the Duke season. FIU toppled Toledo in one of the more dramatic bowl games of 2010. Head coach Mark Cristobal completely transformed the football culture at FIU, much in the same way David Cutcliffe’s working to do at Duke. Furthermore, FIU ranked No. 32 against the pass and Duke’s bread-and-butter will be quarterback Sean Renfree.

Road wins are going to be critical to any postseason aspirations Duke may have, as in addition to the FIU trip the Blue Devils go to UVa. and UNC. Taking two of those three will be critical, as will containing Georgia Tech in a late season showdown. The Blue Devils host a young Ramblin’ Wreck that head coach Paul Johnson has built on the triple option. Duke was among the nation’s very worst against the rush last season at over 200 yards per game surrendered.

Schedule Superlatives

Worst Non-Conference Schedule: NC State

The Wolf Pack play two FCS opponents, Liberty and South Alabama. UL is a very good team and could pose a legitimate challenge, and USA joins the FBS ranks in 2013, but drawing two teams from the lower subdivision in the same season, particularly for a program coming off a nine-win campaign is hard to excuse.

When Central Michigan and Cincinnati were added to the 2011 slate, one was among the best non-AQ programs and the other a BCS bowl qualifier. Through no fault of NCSU’s, both hit the skids under first year head coaches and combined to win just seven games in 2010.

Marquee Non-Conference Games:

1. Florida State vs. Oklahoma, Sept. 17

2. Florida State at Florida, Nov. 26

FSU thumped a disjointed Gator squad in Tallahassee last year. The reminders of 31-7, including mention at the Seminole spring game will be fuel for UF fires. And should FSU manage a clean slate to the point, the Gators will be playing to disrupt their rivals’ championship dreams.

3. Clemson vs. Auburn, Sept. 17

Auburn’s march to the national championship nearly took an early stumble last September when Clemson took AU to overtime. This time around, War Eagle heads into Death Valley with no Cam Newton. Both Tigers are going to be young, and the tone for their 2011.

4. Maryland at Notre Dame, Nov. 12

Randy Edsall’s UConn team famously sealed Charlie Weis’ fate in 2009, but new UND head coach Brian Kelly enjoyed success against those Husky teams when at Big East rival Cincinnati. This is a match-up of two squads that finished last season strong and could be dark horse BCS bowl candidates.

5. Boston College at UCF, Sept. 10

The BC rush defense was tops in college football last season; UCF boasted the No. 26 rushing offense and the Knights really started clicking in that facet with Jeffrey Godfrey running an option offense. UCF is an intriguing BCS-buster candidate, so a lot will be on the line when the Eagles come to Orlando.

The last time UNC traveled to Blacksburg was Oct. 29, 2009. It was a Thursday night, ESPN-televised game and the Tar Heels came away with a win. The 2011 installment of this match-up is another Thursday night broadcast. It’s also the Hokies’ “Orange Effect” game. Of course, uniform has nothing to do with performance, but it’s worth pointing out the last time the Hokies donned the orange helmets was their Orange Bowl trouncing.

2. Miami at Florida State, Nov. 12

Al Golden is initiated into the Sunshine State rivalry at Tallahassee, where Miami has won the last two. FSU’s last home win in this series was 2005, which is also the notorious Jenn Sterger. No, I’m not posting the video.

3. North Carolina at NC State, Nov. 5

The Wolf Pack boasts a three-game win streak over its in-state rival, last season winning a 29-25 nailbiter in Chapel Hill. NCSU’s combined margin of victory in the last two meetings is five points.

4. Miami at Maryland, Sept. 5