2011 Preview Blitz: Big East Schedule Breakdown

In the short Bowl Championship Series era, the Big East has undergone numerous major changes. Another is forthcoming, and might be the first in a landslide of widescale metamorphosis. Finally, it’s positive. Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech all left the conference within the last decade, leaving an eight-team league. The eight-member version is in its final season with TCU on deck for 2012, and more partners possibly coming.

Expansion will be a tremendous positive for the Big East. In the meantime, there’s more good than bad on the 2011 docket. West Virginia hasn’t had a stranglehold on the conference crown like Virginia Tech’s on the ACC, but the Mountaineers have been the most consistent program. WVa. should again be the pace-setter, but the race behind it should be wide open. And, if recent history holds true, someone could emerge from that pack the surprise BCS entrant.

The Grand Finale?

Predicting the Big East has recently proven an exercise in futility. Connecticut emerged from a confusing cluster to go to last season’s Fiesta Bowl, Cincinnati won consecutive titles as pre-season underdogs, and a postseason-less Pitt kept West Virginia out of the 2007 BCS Championship. Pontifications on a December Big East game in May are probably as worthwhile as Bear Sterns stock, but on paper the final week’s match-up between USF and West Virginia might be for all the marbles.

USF finished 2010 with momentum and plays an advantageous schedule, drawing just a single cold climate road game after Nov. 1 (Nov. 5 at Rutgers) and closing with three home games. West Virginia is, of course, among that trio, and the Mountaineers are the clear pre-season favorite. The WVa. defense was ranked No. 3 in points allowed (13.4 per game) and returns key components like Julian Miller and Bruce Irvin.

For a conference lacking a championship game, nothing could be better than a final week showdown with the title on the line. And West Virginia has dropped its last two trips to Tampa, which would add deeper sub-plot. Should this scenario come to fruition, it will somewhat compensate for the Backyard Brawl no longer being the Mountaineers’ finale.

Marquee Mountaineer Match-ups

WVU should be playing for a Big East championship. With its stingy defense and offensive maven Dana Holgorsen now working with the conference’s best quarterback Geno Smith, the team’s frontrunner status is deserved. But will the Mountaineers be going for that ultimate couch fire, the BCS Championship? Two games in September will be integral in that path.

Never a team to shy from challenges out-of-conference, West Virginia travels to Maryland in Week 3. New UM head coach Randy Edsall trumped West Virgina a season ago en route to the Fiesta Bowl. Of course, the Holgorsen-led Mountaineers will have a much different offensively feel from Bill Stewart’s bunch, which scored just 13 points in that defeat.

Should the Mountaineers handle the Terps, Week 4 looms as one of the premiere non-conference games in the entire season. LSU comes to Morgantown, bringing its own BCS championship prospects. The two teams had a back-and-forth clash in Death Valley last season, with the homestanding Tigers coming away victorious, 20-14. The LSU defense is always stout, and with WVa. returning what it is, a low scoring affair seems likely.

12 Torturous Days

Meetings with Buffalo and Maine ease Pitt into 2011, but a Week 3 trip to Iowa sets off a difficult stretch that will test Todd Graham’s first Panther team’s meddle. The Hawkeye defense was top 10 against the rush, but No. 84 against the pass. Graham will need to have worked the magic he had success employing at Tulsa with Tino Sunseri to have a shot in Iowa City.

The Panthers return home to host a talented Notre Dame bunch, then just five days later draws USF in the Big East opener. The short turnaround time is especially noteworthy given the significant differences between the two squads. Both offenses are predicated on speed, but Kelly’s spread employs a quick-strike passing game while quarterback BJ Daniels is the focal point of an option offense for USF.

A possible aid to Graham’s prep time is that USF and Notre Dame coincidentally meet in Week 1, so the Panther coaching staff and players might need only to break down a single piece of game film.

Making A Home Under The Dome

Call Syracuse head coach Mad Max, because he’s been a Road Warrior. Interesting tidbit from Syracuse’s eight-win season: the Orange did not win a single conference game in the Carrier Dome, but were perfect away from it. Oct. 1 is an important date on the Orange’s 2011 calendar. That’s when Rutgers comes calling, and the Scarlet Knights pose Syracuse’s best chance for a home conference win since beating…Rutgers on Nov. 21, 2009.

That ’09 defeat of the Scarlet Knights was also SU’s last home win over any FBS opponent. Its two wins under the dome were over Colgate and Maine, two FCS programs. That dubious streak should end in Week 1 when SU hosts a rebuilding Wake Forest. Toledo then comes to the Carrier Dome in Week 4, giving SU a pretty realistic crack at 3-0 at home when RU comes calling.

Schedule Superlatives

Toughest Schedule: Louisville

A case could be made for Pitt given the Panthers’ tough close to September and mid-October meeting with Utah. But Pitt plays just five road games total; UL has almost that many just in conference. The unforunate facet of playing an odd number of conference games means drawing more road than home games in alternating seasons, and it’s that time for Louisville.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the four games UL play on the road are against pre-season favorite West Virginia; a tough USF; UConn in late November, under what will surely be taxing weather conditions; and the conference opener against Cincinnati. Keeping with that theme, the Cardinals’ two toughest non-conference opponents will also be played on the road: rival Kentucky on Sept. 17 and North Carolina on Oct. 8.

Weakest Non-Conference Schedule: Connecticut

No one in the conference plays an embarassingly weak non-conference schedule, but by virtue of facing not a single 2010 bowl participant, UConn get this distinction. The Huskies’ marquee OOC match-ups are Week 2 at Vanderbilt and Week 3 vs. Iowa State. Both are BCS conference members, sure, but both have historically finished at or near the bottom of their leagues.

UConn draws a pair of MAC opponents, Buffalo and Western Michigan, which won a combined eight games (six of which were by WMU). UB also had the dubious distinction of losing to Akron, the only team to do so in 2010. The Huskies’ pedestrian non-conference slate starts with Fordham, an also-ran in the FCS’ Patriot League.

Marquee Non-Conference Games

1. West Virginia vs. LSU, Sept. 24

2. USF at Notre Dame, Sept. 3
An unconventional match-up pits the Bulls option offense against an Irish defense that ranked in the top 25 in points allowed last season. USF averaged a full three touchdowns fewer in losses than in its victories. The Bulls’ performance against UND will show if they matured in the off-season, and set a foundation for the campaign.

3. Pitt vs. Utah, Oct. 15
These teams went to overtime at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and the Utes were able to expose major flaws in the Panther offense that proved to be both Pitt and Dave Wannstedt’s undoing.

4. Louisville at North Carolina, Oct. 8

Defense is Charlie Strong’s calling card, as his first UL team exhibited. The Cardinals were the 19th best FBS team in points allowed behind such returning contributors as Daniel Brown, Greg Scruggs and Dexter Heyman. In UNC, UL meets a defense with its own aggressive style and quality players. Quinton Coples is among the top returning ends in the nation. The defensive prowess these teams possession, combined with key losses on their respective offenses, should translate to a good old fashion grind-it-out meeting.

5. Cincinnati at Tennessee, Sept. 10
Butch Jones’ first season leading two-time defending Big East champion Cincinnati didn’t quite go as planned. The Bearcats were sluggish defensively and failed to establish an offensive identity. There are ample pieces for a resurgence, and a trip to Rocky Top will serve as an interesting barometer. UC’s first road game of 2010 (which was also it’s first game, period) at Fresno State was a microcosm of 2010 — disjointed and lost.

Zac Collaros and Isaiah Pead have the potential to be an explosive tandem. If they can show that against an SEC defense — even a middling one — that bodes well for UC’s chances to return to Big East contention.

Marquee Conference Games

1. West Virginia at USF, Dec. 3

2. Pitt at West Virginia, Nov. 25
The annual Backyard Brawl rivalry game has provided many classic moments. A juggernaut Mountaineer team was kept from the BCS title game in a home loss vs. Pitt in 2007. That Panther team were decided underdogs; this year’s version will presumably be an underdog as well, but has the makings of a team potentially in the conference title hunt by this juncture.

3. Louisville at Cincinnati, Oct. 15
Each of these teams intrigue me for different reasons. Both are wild cards in this Big East race, possessing different airs of unpredictability. For UL, it’s who will step up for the departed Bilal Powell and Adam Froman. For Cincy, the question is if Jones can get the pieces already in place to click. These two meeting so early in the conference slate sets a tone for each. The winner will prove itself top 25 potential, and the loser will flounder around .500.

4. West Virginia at Syracuse, Oct. 21
It’s been a long time since Syracuse was worthy of the national spotlight. The Mountaineers coming to town brings ESPN and a Friday night, national broadcast. What better way to return to the big stage than with a win? As mentioned above, SU should be 3-0 at home for its meeting with Rutgers, and by the time WVa. comes to the Carrier Dome will realistically sit at 5-1.

The Orange tripped up WVa. in Morgantown a season ago, holding the Mountaineers to their second lowest output of the regular season, 14 points. The win was truly serendipitous — Geno Smith threw nearly half of his interceptions for the entire year on that one afternoon, and SU quarterback Ryan Nassib threw for just 63 yards. Yet, the Orange came out victorious. If SU can conjure up some more magic, a surprise title run won’t be out of the question.