2011 Preview Blitz: Big Ten Schedule Breakdown

Say, you hear anything interesting about the Big Ten this offseason?

The recently vest-less Ohio State’s cloudy forecast doesn’t put a damper on the whole Big Ten. In fact, the Buckeyes’ likely de facto elimination from contention opens what could be the most exciting conference championship race. Who is in the best position to be the Big Ten’s Leader? Which team will etch its name into the conference annals as a Legend? How many groaner puns can I squeeze out of the Big Ten division names? The more intrepid among you, continue reading to find out.

HOME IS THE WHERE THE ZOOK IS

By virtue of playing all four of its non-conference games at home, Illinois play in Memorial Stadium eight times. That’s 66.7 percent of the entire schedule. The Illini don’t leave Champaign until Oct. 8 when they travel to Indiana. If that wasn’t fortuotous enough, three of Illinois’ four road games are against the Big Ten teams that failed to reach a bowl game (Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota).

Even losing three supremely talented players (Mikel Leshoure, Martez Wilson and Corey Liuget), with Nathan Schleehasse returning to captain the offense and such a favorable schedule the road map is laid for a surprising season.

NOT ALL CAMPS ARE FUN

Nebraska’s initiation to the Big Ten is at Camp Randall Stadium, home to last season’s Rose Bowl qualifying Wisconsin Badgers. UW has lost in Madison just four times dating back to the 2004 season. Barring a lopsided aberration against Penn State in 2008, the road map to beating UW at home is to keep the score low. Consider these losses: vs. Iowa, 20-10 (2005); Ohio State 20-7 (2008); Iowa, 20-10 (2009). Granted games from six years ago have no bearing on the present, but there is something to be gleaned from this trend.

Oddly for a team that excels defensively, last season’s Cornhuskers struggled in low scoring games. Nebraska scored a combined 46 points in its four losses, so simply containing the ground-based Badger offense is no guarantee for victory. Ball control and capitalizing on the few opportunities UW will allow are the keys.

REUNION

Coaches will often schedule their former programs in a goodwill sort of nod, generally a few years after said coach has established his new home. Through sheer coincidence, new Michigan head coach Brady Hoke will face his former defensive coordinator Rocky Long and the San Diego State Aztecs Hoke coached to a Poinsettia Bowl victory. Whether players like Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman, whose games were cultivated under Hoke will know what to expect more from their former coach, or if the coach will have his players pegged should provide a fun back-and-forth.

The Aztecs are Michigan’s final tune-up before diving into conference, and Michigan is a chance for SDSU to announce its presence on the national stage.

SCHEDULE SUPERLATIVES

Cupcake Cup

The award for the conference’s weakest schedule goes to Indiana, in a walk. Perhaps to give the Hoosiers a shot at the postseason, Bill Lynch slated some buttery, heavily frosted non-conference opponents in recent seasons. First-year IU head coach Kevin Wilson will reap the benefits of playing a team that languished in the MAC (Ball State), an FCS opponent (South Carolina State), and a Sun Belt foe that has failed to bowl for nearly a decade (North Texas). Though SCSU is no slouch, IU’s true test of the OOC slate is Virginia, which comes to Bloomington in Week 2. Otherwise, the Hoosiers have no excuse to not entering conference play with three wins.

Toughest Schedule

A tough selection, because really no one schedule jumps out as particularly rigorous — at least, based on non-conference games. Penn State, for example, plays Alabama and a very good Temple, but its other OOC matchups are Indiana State and Eastern Michigan (based on last season, I’d be inclined to take ISU between those two). PSU might actually have the most daunting conference slate, ending the season with Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin all consecutively, including the latter two on the road.

Best Out-of-Conference Games

1. Michigan State at Notre Dame

The annual trek down to South Bend, or up to Lansing gets overshadowed by Notre Dame’s other rivalries with USC, Michigan and of late Stanford. But this season when the Spartans and Irish square off under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus, BCS implications could be on the line. Both teams are outlier BCS bowl game contenders according to my less-than-scientific prognastications.

2. Ohio State at Miami

As of this writing there’s still no indication how bad things will get for Ohio State. Assuming nothing changes, or even if it does, the Buckeyes will be without the Tattoo Five when they travel to Coral Gables. Most pundits suggest the Hurricanes are at least a season from being a major player under Al Golden

3. Penn State vs. Alabama

Sept. 6, 2003. That’s the date of Penn State’s last non-conference loss in Beaver Stadium, a 27-14 decision vs. Boston College. In 2010 the Tide rolled all over the Nittany Lions in Tuscaloosa, and as of May 28 ‘Bama has the second best odds to win the BCS championship, 11/2 according to Vegas. A strong PSU defense draws a Crimson Tide offense breaking in a new quarterback, either Phillip Sims or AJ McCarron.

4. Illinois vs. Arizona State

The Illini and Sun Devils both ended their 2010 campaigns on positive notes, and each comes into the season with a coach potentially on the hot seat eager to meet high expectations. ASU ventured into Big Ten territory a season ago and nearly stole a win in Camp Randall, so Memorial Stadium shouldn’t rattled the visitors. Vontaze Burfict setting his sights on Nathan Scheelhasse will make for one of the more fun defender-quarterback pairings in the early season.

5. Northwestern at Boston College

Two players who could certainly play their ways onto All-America teams will line up on opposing sides of the ball in this intriguing Week 1 matchup. NU quarterback Dan Persa returns from a ruptured Achilles’ to lead the Wildcats into Chestnut Hill, where linebacker Luke Kuechly leads a stacked BC defense.

Best Conference Games

1t. Ohio State at Nebraska/Nebraska at Wisconsin

The aforementioned Nebraska-Wisconsin game at Camp Randall is about as quality a primer for the Big Ten season as one could want. It could also be a preview of the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. Similarly, the first-ever Big Ten game played in Lincoln is a heavyweight tussel, with or without Tressel.

A Buckeyes-Huskers conference title game is also possible, though perhaps less likely due to tOSU’s uncertainty.

3. Ohio State at Michigan

Jim Tressel was Ann Arbor’s nightmare, winning nine of 10 in the storied rivalry. With the page turned on that chapter of Buckeyes-Wolverines

4. Wisconsin at Michigan State

By virtue of losing an early season matchup in East Lansing, Wisconsin was just a co-champion and did not get the opportunity to play for a BCS title. The shake-up in conference alignment meant some scheduling shake-ups as well, and one is UW traveling to East Lansing again. Kirk Cousins went 20-for-29 with three touchdowns to lead the Spartans in scoring 34 points on the Badger defense. MSU would need to have another prolific outing to once more trump UW and put itself in position for a second league title. Of course, UW isn’t the only significant rematch with championship ramifications on the Spartan schedule.

5. Michigan State at Iowa

MSU lost just two games in the 2010 season, but by a combined 73 points. The Spartans’ regular season loss, the loss that kept MSU from an outright championship and potential BCS title game was a 37-6 beatdown at Iowa. Well, on Nov. 12 MSU goes back to the scene of its Halloween eve massacre when it draws the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. Kirk Ferentz is breaking in many new starters this season, but Iowa should remain a serious threat in the Big Ten. Iowa is certainly capable of playing the spoiler role effectively.