Introducing The Detmer, A Non-AQ Heisman

Dec. 10, 1990 Sports Illustrated

Bodog released its preseason Heisman Trophy odds earlier this week. Stanford’s Andrew Luck heads the pack, unsurprisingly. Perhaps equally as unsurprising is the non-automatic conferences and independents (sans Notre Dame, who is held to AQ standards) are sparingly represented. Boise State quarterback and 2010 Heisman finalist Kellen Moore is on the board at 15/1, and Houston quarterback Case Keenum checks in at 35/1. Players from these conferences have a difficult road in reaching New York. In the new millennium, non-AQs have been represented at the Heisman presentation just three times: TCU’s LaDainian Tomlinson in 2000; Hawaii’s Colt Brennan in 2007; Moore last season. Cracking the nation’s elite is just as difficult for the non-BCS individuals as the non-teams. Look at recent standouts like UCF running back Kevin Smith and Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick who couldn’t even get a sniff of the bronze statue.

The five non-BCS conferences and 75 percent of the independents are differentiated from the Big Six in virtually every other facet, so it only makes sense the best players from this subdivision-subdivision have an award for its best player. Just as fitting is for this honor to bear the name of the last player from one of these universities to win college football’s top honor, 1990 Heisman winner and BYU quarterback Ty Detmer. SaturdayBlitz.com will track this completely exclusive* field’s progress throughout the season. Meet the preseason watch list after the jump.

*Exclusive because I just made it up.

Bryce Beall, RB, Houston

2010 Stats:

Pros: Houston’s passing offense garnered most of the attention in the Cougars’ successful 2008 and 2009 campaigns, but Bryce Beall performed just fine under the radar. Without his through-the-tackles rushing, the UH offense wouldn’t hum. He’s explosive, as three straight seasons averaging better than 5 yards per carry demonstrate.

Cons: Beall has been unable to match the success of his freshman campaign, when he finished just shy of 1300 yards. Sharing the backfield with Keenum, he becomes something of an afterthought, serving more as complement than focus to the offense. That he isn’t a pass catching back is a detriment to his productivity in an offense so heavily predicated on the pass.

Matt Brown, RB, Temple

2010 Stats:

Pros: Matt Brown’s reliable enough, in his first two seasons with the Owls averaging more than 5 yards on every carry. He combines a small frame with breakaway speed to make for an elusive tackle, akin to Colorado’s Rodney Stewart or San Diego Charger Darren Sproles.

Cons: Brown emerged as Temple’s No. 1 rusher due to teammate Bernard Pierce’s injury problems. A healthy Pierce means fewer attempts for Brown, who at just 5-foot-5 and 175 pounds is a classic third down back yet hasn’t demonstrated a pass catching knack.

Alex Carder, QB, Western Michigan

2010 Stats:

Pros: Alex Carder isn’t a dual threat quarterback in the traditional sense of the word, but he’s a quarterback able to rush. He has great size at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds and playing in the pass-happy Western Michigan offense, he’ll get plenty of opportunities to air it out. The result should be some eye-popping numbers.

Cons: He was accurate enough at 63 percent completion and a 5:1 touchdown to turnover ratio, but when Carder struggled, so did the Broncos. Of his 12 interceptions, Carder threw 10 of them in defeats. Loss magnifies a quarterback’s failings, and shoring that up in pressure situations will bolster both Carder, and the Broncos.

Austin Davis, QB, Southern Miss

2010 Stats:

Pros: Like the aforementioned Carder, Austin Davis can go to the ground effectively but his game isn’t reliant on that facet. It’s merely an additional weapon. He’s typically very good about letting the game come to him, and plays within that context. Three times he threw for a 70 percent or better completion percentage.

Cons: Davis’ arm isn’t overly impressive, so he’s unlikely to put up huge numbers. USM will score in bunches, and he’s the driving force behind that, but he’s more facilitator than stat stuffer.

Dominique Davis, QB, East Carolina

2010 Stats:

Pros: Ruffin McNeill’s time under Mike Leach at Texas Tech certainly translated to ECU (for better or worse). The Skip Holtz Pirate teams were defense, defense, defense. McNeill’s have been offense, offense, offense and that allowed Dominique Davis to register monster numbers.

Cons: Turnovers were an issue for Davis. He finished with a touchdown:interception ratio barely over 2:1. With ECU’s run game finish 99th in FBS, he found himself in situations having to force passes. The Pirates will likely lack ground punch again.

Chandler Harnish, QB, Northern Illinois

2010 Stats:

Pros: NIU peaked in the AP top 25 last season and ended 2010 with 11 wins thanks largely to Chandler Harnish having the best season of his career. He’s seasoned entering his senior campaign with a much improved ability to pass, making him a much more complete dual threat quarterback than he was in his sophomore season. New head coach Dave Doeren brought on former Indiana offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who helped Ben Chappell’s ascension. Canada could help Harnish maximize his passing ability, and he has the potential to register stats akin to Dan LeFevour’s at Central Michigan.

Cons: Head coach Jerry Kill is gone, as is All MAC running back Chad Spann. The Huskies’ new staff shouldn’t hinder Harnish’s progression, but not having Spann will certainly be a test as defenses key in more exclusively on Harnish.

Jake Heaps, QB, BYU

2010 Stats:

Pros: BYU has had no shortage of standout quarterbacks in its history, including producing the namesake of this honor. Jake Heaps is the third in a proud line of talented, one syllable first-and-last name playmakers to call Provo home with John Beck and Max Hall preceding him. BYU is dubbed the Quarterback Factory, and many regard Heaps has the kind of talent to continue that legacy.

Cons: Perhaps it can be attributed to freshman growing pains but Heaps did struggle with his accuracy as the lowest completion percentage and worst touchdown:interception ratio among the pocket passing QBs on this list exhibits. His improvement will have to be very immediate with the Cougars opening at Ole Miss, at Texas and vs. Utah.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego State

2010 Stats:

Pros: Ronnie Hillman has It. There’s that quality running backs destined for Sundays have, and Hillman exhibits it every time he carries the ball. Like a souped-up Charger in a drag race(old school version, of course), Hillman hits a gear that just powers him for extra yardage. Last season’s Aztecs were a surprise, thanks largely to his debut contributions. New head coach Rocky Long showed a proclivity for the rush in his time at New Mexico, and while I don’t expect Hillman to get more than his already healthy 262 carries, he will remain an offensive focal point.

Cons: Sophomore slumps occur regularly enough to give the cliche validity, so that’s a potential issue. Hillman also isn’t the biggest of backs at just 180 pounds.

TY Hilton, WR, Florida International

2010 Stats:

Pros: A catalyst behind the most successful season in Florida International history was the multi-talented TY Hilton, an out-route, long ball wide receiver and prolific kick returner. Hilton has the speed and size of a cornerback, which FIU coach Mark Cristobal utilizes in numerous ways: as the Golden Panthers’ top passing target, in special teams, and carrying the ball on Jet formations.

Cons: The FIU offense isn’t particularly aerial, which limits the numbers Hilton can accrue as a wideout. His stellar 2010 on special teams should result in his receiving fewer kicks as opposing coordinators will look to boot away from him. Furthermore, playing in the Sun Belt is an immediate disadvantage.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

2010 Stats:

Pros: Perhaps no other non-AQ player had the buzz coming into 2010 that Case Keenum carried. Losing him early to injury derailed the Cougars’ season, but he was granted an additional season of eligibility. He’s a savvy pocket presence with a big arm, and fully exploits the freedoms allowed in Kevin Sumlin’s offense. UH plays an uptempo, aerially strong offense that will provide Keenum ample opportunity to produce.

Cons: Keenum’s nearly yearlong layoff could mean rust early, and in Week 1 he will meet the same team that knocked him out in 2010. Whether that fires his competitive engine or forces Keenum to play tentative will shape the Cougars’ season.

GJ Kinne, QB, Tulsa

2010 Stats:

Pros: Todd Graham left Tulsa for Pitt, but in his stead is the Golden Hurricane’s offensive coordinator of the past four seasons, BIll Blankenship. That’s good news for GJ Kinne, who will continue to have freedom in what has traditionally been a wide open offense. Kinne has shown explosiveness, surpassing 300 yards passing six times last season. He’s another of those quarterbacks who has demonstrated a willingness to run that really complements his overall game. He had one game of 190 yards rushing last year, against Houston.

Cons: Accuracy has been an issue for Kinne, who in two seasons of significant playing time has had completion percentages of 60.9 and 59.8. Neither is necessarily bad, but neither are those figures all that good.

Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego State

2010 Stats:

Pros: Of the quarterbacks on this list, Ryan Lindley is perhaps the most built for the NFL. He’s tall (6-foot-4), has played in a Pro Style offense, and has shown a big arm. He’s also battle-tested, which should translate to a career season in 2011.

Cons: Lindley’s accuracy has been shaky at best. His big arm is too often used for arm punts, and that has been costly in tough Aztec losses. His two highest turnover games were against TCU and Utah, both of which were decided by less than a touchdown. His decision making will have to have improved immensely.

Jonathan Massaquoi, DE, Troy

2010 Stats:

Pros: Forget non-BCS, Jonathan Massaquoi might be the most dangerous defensive lineman in the nation. Troy’s big man feasts on opposing backfields, producing more tackles-for-loss than any returning player in college football. His stats are comparable with those NFL draftees and All-Americans Da’Quan Bowers and Nick Fairley racked up.

Cons: Defensive players are at an immediate disadvantage, on top of the other disadvantage of playing Sun Belt competition. Massoquoi is a beast, but there’s only so much a pass rusher can do against double teams, which he’ll surely face with increased regularity.

Bryant Moniz, QB, Hawaii

2010 Stats:

Pros: I imagine playing quarterback at Hawaii is a little bit like playing a real life version of the old NFL Blitz game. It’s wide open, exciting and high scoring. Bryant Moniz flourished in the system last season, and should surely do so once again.

Cons: Moniz ended 2010 on a sour note, throwing more than 1/4 of his interceptions for the entire season in the bowl game loss to Tulsa. His decision making in that contest was perplexing. Whether that was an aberration or a mark of a strange regression will determine his senior campaign.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

2010 Stats:

Pros: Kellen Moore is a proven winner. Boise State’s elite status was established well before he donned the blue-and-orange, but Moore has helped elevate the Broncos to even greater heights with his savvy quarterbacking. He may not be an NFL scout’s dream, but he’s certainly a college coaches. Moore boasts both big play-ability, yet precision and honed decision making.

Cons: Uh…well, realistically it’s tough to find anything to pinpoint as standing between Moore and being the most dominant non-AQ player in college football aside from injury. Stranger things have happened though. Defenses will be priming for him, and for most teams on the Broncos’ docket this is their shot at making a name.

Kyle Padron, QB, SMU

2010 Stats:

Pros: June Jones certainly gives quarterbacks the green light, and Kyle Padron capitalized in his first full season as starter. Padron beat out eventual FCS champion Bo Levi Mitchell by being more accurate and better fitting the SMU offense.

Cons: Padron’s accuracy took a significant dip from 2009 to 2010. In ’09, his completion percentage was above 67, and plummeted nearly 8 points last year. Meanwhile, his touchdown to interception ratio remained roughly the same, in the 2-and-change range.

Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple

2010 Stats:

Pros: Bernard Pierce is a prototype feature running back: strong, fast, difficult to tackle, able to attack the offensive line’s holes. When healthy, he’s among the nation’s best backs. Just ask UConn, a team Pierce torched for nearly 170 yards.

Cons: Struggles with durability have hindered Pierce’s production each of the last two seasons, and it was particularly of issue last year. Al Golden did a great job of utilizing Pierce when available, but a change in coaches leaves questions. Steve Addazzio’s Florida offenses never featured tailbacks too heavily, so his amount of carries could drop. That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing given his health concerns, but when splitting so many touches with Matt Brown it’s cutting down an already diminished slice of the pie.

Robbie Rouse, RB, Fresno State

2010 Stats:

Pros: Fresno State’s “Mighty Mouse” is about as quick as they come. When his afterburners are firing, he can peel through the line and past the secondary in no time. He’s adept at making something out of nothing, and has been consistent with his touches whether serving as the No. 1 or third down back.

Cons: Rouse became the Bulldogs’ featured back with Ryan Matthews gone for the NFL, but he managed just eight touchdowns in that role. His size could be a problem, particularly on goal line sets.

Trent Steelman, QB, Army

2010 Stats:

Pros: Army’s option offense gets its power from the steely-nerved Trent Steelman. He runs the system about as well as any triple option quarterback in the country, and actually finished near the top of Patrick Johnston’s Positive Impact Factor ratings at In The Bleachers. His ability to effectively run the triple option led Army to its first bowl appearance in nearly 15 years.

Cons: The Cadets play a daunting non-conference schedule, and Steelman will face these challenges behind a young offensive line. In addition, the Army offense isn’t exactly explosive so while his contribution is steady, it’s not necessarily sexy. He won’t put up the kind of numbers Ricky Dobbs did at Navy, for example.

Ed Wesley, RB, TCU

2010 Stats:

Pros: Ed Wesley is a compact, powerful rusher that combines strength and speed. He isn’t nearly as prolific nor will he be, but in terms of physical presence he’s reminiscent of former Horned Frog LaDainian Tomlinson. His 6.5 yards per carry are certainly impressive, and show an ability to shed tacklers few running backs can match. He’ll be a key focal point of the offense as a new quarterback assumes duties from Andy Dalton. He should hit 200 carries on the year.

Cons: Against more stout defenses, Wesley’s production took a major dip. Against BYU and Utah, he averaged less than five yards per game and failed to surpass 60 yards in either contest. To prove himself the true feature back in a talented backfield, Wesley will have to produce against the stiffer competition.

Think we missed someone, want to nominate a non-AQ star, or are interested in tracking this process as a Detmer voter for the 2011 season? Leave a comment.

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