2011 Preview Blitz: Dark Horse Conference Contenders
By Kyle Kensing
At least one contender emerges in a conference title race, that before the season was well below the experts’ radars. Consider recent precedent: Wake Forest in 2006. Missouri and Kansas in 2007. Cincinnati in 2008 and again in 2009. Michigan State last year. Plenty of programs in the coming season have the right ingredients for continuing this tradition.
History and future expectations say picking BC for the ACC championship is going out on a long, narrow limb. Since joining the Big East in 1991 and the ACC nearly 15 years later, conference titles have been an elusive milestone for BC football. In fact, the Eagle trophy case has just one, a split decision in BC’s last Big East season (2004). Meanwhile, the coming season’s schedule looks like a minefield with tough non-conference games and a three-week stretch of road ACC games waiting. Yet, this roster may have more talent from top-to-bottom than any recent BC squad. In tailback Montel Harris and linebacker Luke Kuechly, head coach Frank Spaziani has arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the conference.
Defense wins championship, and BC boasts one of the best defenses in college football. That’s reason enough to like the Eagles’ chances, but offensively factoring in a talent like Harris and the potential of quarterback Chase Reddig, BC has a tantalizing look.
Should BC survive its October trial of at Clemson/at Virginia Tech/at Maryland, Florida State must come to Chestnut Hill after the New England autumn frost has hit full stride.
Butch Jones’ first season replacing Brian Kelly at UC wasn’t exactly stellar. The Bearcats were an offensive juggernaut under Kelly, yet struggled to establish an offensive identity under Jones. In its eight losses, UC averaged just 17 points a game. The Bearcats’ woes are a testament to the all-important feeling out period between a coaching staff and players. With that out of the way and some valuable, experienced talents back, UC is primed to return to the Big East’s upper echelon.
Zac Collaros and Isaiah Pead have as much collective potential as any backfield in the conference, perhaps even the nation. DJ Woods adds a reliable receiving option. That should kickstart the offseason, and likely have a trickle down on the defense. UC failed to hold any FBS opponent below 27 points but was also facing one of the most lopsided time of possession disparities in college football (27:37, No. 110 overall).
In the Big East, UC hosts Louisville, UConn and West Virginia while drawing Syracuse on the road. ‘Cuse failed to win a single home conference game last year.
Last year’s Hawkeyes underachieved immensely and lose a bevy of talent. That would seem like a recipe for a step toward full-fledged mediocrity, but Iowa should actually improve in 2011. Running back Marcus Coker could be a breakout superstar taking over top rushing duties. James Vanderberg has applicable game experience and gained ample tutelage under Ricky Stanzi. Riley Reiff is as talented an offensive lineman as there is in college football, and will pave the way for the rest of the Hawkeyes. And even with its defensive losses, the Hawkeyes have no shortage of talent on that side of the ball.
Iowa’s rush defense was top 10 last season, but this year the secondary should reach such levels against the pass. Shaun Prater, Jeremiha Hunter and Micah Hyde lead that unit, while Mike Daniels takes over as the defensive line’s force a la Adrian Clayborn.
The schedule is tailored for a surprise run. Iowa doesn’t open Big Ten play until Week 6. The Hawkeyes’ conference slate does bookend with the two most difficult road games: Penn State and Nebraska. Between that though is a manageable stretch. Michigan State returns to the scene of its regular season beatdown, and Michigan/Northwestern must also both play in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes avoid Ohio State and Wisconsin, as well as an Illinois team that could emerge as a conference title dark horse in its own right.
Oklahoma is a unanimous preseason favorite not only for the Big 12, but the whole BCS championship. Oklahoma State’s garnering most of the remaining hype and what’s left is focused on Texas. A&M is flying pretty low below the radar, but really shouldn’t. The Aggies have one of the most surprisingly stout defenses returning in 2011. After the OSU loss in September, TAMU didn’t allow another team to surpass 30 points until the Cotton Bowl loss vs. LSU. Von Miller is a tremendous loss, but there’s plenty of talent returning in Damontre Moore, Coryell Judie, Sean Porter and Dustin Harris.
The move to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback paid immediate dividends, and with that season under his belt he should flourish. Wideout Jeff Fuller is underrated given the talented receivers the conference has in Justin Blackmon and Ryan Sproles, but Fuller’s name should be more recognizable as the season progresses. Cyrus Gray should also be poised for a breakout year, and maybe the Big 12’s top running back by year’s end.
Hosting both OSU and Texas should be a major boon to the Aggies’ championship aspirations. If the defense can replicate its incredible showing from last season’s Oklahoma game in Norman, the door is open for the best A&M season in decades.
Ruffin McNeill’s first Pirate squad was a peculiar bunch. ECU knocked off C-USA big dogs Tulsa and Southern Miss, but lost to Rice. The identity of the program completed changed instantaneously, from that of methodical defensive stoppers to explosive offense. To call the ECU defense porous would suggest there was something solid somewhere to have holes. The Pirates gave up points in bunches, but that can be attributed largely to a youthful corps. A year of experience should shore that up somewhat, and having the defensive-minded John Wiley as associate head coach should leave an imprint.
ECU will continue to score in bunches. Dominique Davis had one of the highest outputs for an FBS quarterback in all the nation last year. The coming year should bring more of that. The Pirates host both Southern Miss and UCF, as well as up-and-coming UAB. The former two are the clear cut favorites in C-USA East, and UAB has talent. That’s essentially the division’s three best teams coming to Greenville, while in interdivision play the Pirates miss SMU and Tulsa.
Dan Enos had a rough first year, assuming head coaching duties from Butch Jones. The Chippewas plummeted near the MAC ceiling, bottoming out in a 17-14 home loss to Bowling Green. Last year’s CMU bunch was young, and should be better for the wear entering 2011.
Ryan Radcliff has the potential to be the MAC’s breakout star. Radcliff threw for over 3300 yards and 17 touchdowns. Should his first year as a starter help his maturation process and he cuts down on his turnovers, he’ll be dangerous. The offense shoring up its issues will bolster the defense, which actually played pretty well last year. The 26 points per game allowed were more a result of the offense forcing it into extra possessions than any glaring flaws.
The Chippewas have the most favorable schedule of any MAC team. Northern Illinois, Ohio and Toledo all come to Mount Pleasant, while CMU avoids Temple and Miami altogether.
Brady Hoke left Montezuma Mesa with a fully stocked cupboard and on the cusp of being a legitimate contender. All that separated the Aztecs from a perfect 2010 were 15 points. The experience of four very close losses should translate into a few more wins, even with SDSU playing a challenging schedule that includes OOC trips to Michigan and Army. Ronnie Hillman is the Mountain West’s best running back, and Ryan Lindley is behind only Boise State’s Kellen Moore in the quarterback discussion.
Despite the solid foundation Hoke left Rocky Long to build on, there’s no question TCU and Boise State have significant edges over the Aztecs. But a key statistic from 2010 that would translate into a surprise MWC title run for SDSU is 6-1. That was the Aztecs’ record at Qualcomm Stadium. It would have been 7-0 without numerous blown opportunities in a four-point loss to Utah. Both BSU and TCU come to The Q. Last year in Fort Worth, SDSU took TCU to the brink in a 40-35 decision.
For a program that has produced two undefeated teams and a debatable national champion in the last seven years, Utah’s seemingly off the grid in Pac-12 talk. Stanford and Oregon are garnering the lion’s share of headlines, and rightfully so, while an intriguing Arizona State is getting the South’s buzz. Perhaps staying low key is how Kyle Whittingham likes it.
The Utes have apparent flaws to address, namely heavy graduation on the offensive line and the loss of what felt like 10 years of contribution from running back Matt Asiata. UU became offensively anemic down the stretch last year, but quarterback Jordan Wynn was playing hurt. Wynn’s a genuine talent and should he stay healthy, will have an All Conference caliber year.
The good news is that even with flaws, Utah’s in a division loaded with other flawed teams. UU hosts likely South favorite ASU and an experienced UCLA bunch. The Utes travel to Arizona, but Arizona Stadium has hardly been an impenetrable fortress — dating back to its Nov. 2009 loss there to Oregon, UA is 4-4 at home.
Georgia’s picking up steam among the punditry network, so the Dawgs may not be that much of a true dark horse. Given how much further ahead of the curve the SEC West is than the East though, should UGa. get to the SEC Championship game and pull off an upset it would remain a huge surprise. Aaron Murray is the conference’s best quarterback, so Mark Richt has that to build off of. Murray captained an offense that scored 32 points per game, playing much of the season without talented AJ Green. That should soften the blow of his leaving, much like adding Isaiah Crowell compensates for Washaun Ealey’s transfer.
The Dawg defense has more questions to address than the offense, losing both Akeem Dent and Justin Houston to the NFL. Athletic Brandon Boykin is back though, supplementing a secondary that finished No. 17 in the FBS last year against the pass.
UGa. misses all three of the West’s heavy favorites: Alabama, LSU and Arkansas. Reigning SEC East champion South Carolina must come to Athens, and Georgia’s more talented than Florida on paper. The Dawgs should win the Jacksonville showdown. From there, UGa. is one title game upset shy of a BCS bowl. The opener against Boise State will speak volumes for Georgia’s ceiling.
Aforementioned Phil Steele emphasizes net close wins and losses in deciphering a team’s record, and no one in the Sun Belt was bitten harder by the net close loss bug than Arkansas State. Six of the RedWolves’ eight losses were by a combined 34 points, and five of those were by a combined 22 in conference play. A few breaks go differently, and ASU is 9-3 with a New Orleans Bowl appearance. Alas, all head coach Hugh Freeze can do with those is use them as building blocks.
These RedWolves are experienced and should cash in those losses for victories this time around. Quarterback Ryan Apling is impressive as a dual-skilled weapon and the other top skill players from last year are back: tailback Derek Lawson and wideouts Dwayne Frampton and Allen Muse. That’s a healthy corps from an offense that averaged over 400 yards per game. The defense will need to tighten up exponentially — ASU allowed more yards than it gained and was 91st in the FBS.
ASU hosts likely league frontrunners FIU and Troy.
The 180 Vandal football has done under Robb Akey’s guidance is astounding. A poorly covered kickoff against Fresno State kept UI from bowling a second consecutive season, but that the Vandals were even in that position is a testament to Akey’s abilities. Idaho would never have been a legitimate WAC contender in year’s past, but the pieces are in place to rectify that.
Brian Reader is a more than component replacement for Nathan Enderle at quarterback. Reader filled in while Enderle recovered from injury in 2009, and made good on the opportunity with 801 yards passing and six touchdowns. He was even better in limited opportunities last season, cutting down his turnovers from six to one, and throwing another five scores. Reader looks like the WAC’s best quarterback headed into the season, and has surrounding him a talented array of weapons. Princeton McCarty enters his third season as a major contributor at running back, and aerial scoring threat Justin Volteng supplements the receiving corps. Robert Saivii is a tenacious tackler and returns to lead the defense.
UI is one of the many programs benefiting (competitively at least) from Boise’s departure. The Vandals get Louisiana Tech, Hawaii and Fresno State all at home in the beautiful Kibbie Dome. Cutting down on those long trips should benefit the Vandals greatly. UI has a great chance at nine wins and a league championship.