Proceed With Caution on Trendy Picks

These summer months lend themselves to endless speculation, estimation and chatter. Thus is the football fanatic’s version of a child shaking gift boxes on Christmas eve. Sometimes preseason prognostication works like the Stock Exchange wherein flimsy speculation can gain outrageous momentum. Recurring talking points from last summer that proved fruitless: an undefeated USC could challenge for a split national championship; Heisman candidate Jake Locker might lead Washington to a Pac-10 title; John Brantley will make Florida fans forget about Tim Tebow. The key difference between the gridiron and market though is that conjecture can get stocks bought and sold; only on-field production dictates a football prediction’s worth.

This summer’s Guessing Season is no different. Some narratives pick up more steam than others because really, there’s a logical enough foundation that an initially out-on-a-limb pick seems plausible. That, compounded with the inevitable unpredictability of each season is a combustible formula for pundits.

Take the aforementioned USC scenario. In retrospect, USC finishing 8-5 makes more sense than the hypothetical, championship-splitting 13-0 that became so popular summer. Yet, a traditional power with a battle-tested quarterback and name-recognized coach playing in an unpredictable conference seems a safer pick than what really happened: an unproven JUCO transfer and head coach yet to make his bones navigating a team through the nation’s toughest conference.

Assuredly, surprises will emerge — not necessarily as meteorically as Auburn, but they’re coming. The formula for what constitutes a surprise though is somewhat routine: a favorable schedule, experience, positive finishes to the end of the previous season, demonstrably high-level ability. Locker and Washington’s irrational build-up proved misguided because Locker had never shown the ability to be regular consistent, and the Husky defense was among the conference’s more porous. UW is a program on the rise, but little coming out of ’09 realistically suggested a ceiling much higher than the seven wins it eventually reached.

UCLA is generating considerable buzz as a PAC-12 up-and-comer. Don’t buy the hype.

UCLA was offensively anemic last season, and grew progressively stale as the year progressed. True, Kevin Prince’s mid-season injury did alter the Bruins’ approach somewhat, but the difference between Prince and back-up Richard Brehaut isn’t substantial enough to have elevated the No. 104 scoring offense and No. 100 yards gained offense to much greater heights. The Bruin quarterback situation is no more stable now than it was a year ago, and is perhaps even more suspect with the addition of scrambler Tim Hundley. Hundley fits the Pistol offense, which may or may not be Rick Neuheisel’s go-to. Even with a stud running back in Jonathan Franklin, the indecisiveness surrounding the offense is too serious a question mark to suggest UCLA will be much improved.

Major, fundamental flaws are the most difficult to overcome, and there’s a glaring one on the East Coast. Rutgers took a big step backward from the progress Greg Schiano made his previous five campaigns. The Scarlet Knights’ struggles in a four-win season cannot be easily improved, as RU was the single worst pass protection team in the nation. Solving such catastrophic line issues in one offseason just isn’t feasible.

While Schiano’s track record of exceeding expectations lends credence to faith in a Rutgers rebound, the lack of faith some are showing Gene Chizik is perplexing. Chizik’s Auburn tenure has gone much better than most anyone could have predicted, ending his first season with an Outback Bowl win and of course, earning last season’s BCS Championship.

Chizik does have gaping holes to fill, most Cam Newton’s void left at quarterback. The AU offense does return a talented, two-headed backfield not unlike the Cadillac Williams-Ronnie Brown combo that led a perfect AU team in 2004. Such options should alleviate some of the initial pressure on whomever assumes quarterback duties. Quarterback inexperience is no rarity in this year’s SEC, as ESPN SEC blogger Chris Low wrote this week, and few first-year starters will have the depth surrounding him in his backfield mates that AU’s next starter will.

The Tigers also open with a manageable enough schedule to start 4-0 before the Oct. 1 trip to South Carolina. AU gets Utah State, Mississippi State and FAU at home and travels to face a very young Clemson. AU won’t be in the SEC, and thus by default BCS Championship races again, but the Tigers seem better than the basement dweller some pundits have suggested they will be.

Undoubtedly, Auburn’s stock would be higher had Russell Wilson taken his talents to SEC Country rather than Madison. Wilson’s style more closely resembles what Chizik employed than Bret Bielema’s conservative style at Wisconsin. Hence, the sky high hype surrounding UW is another narrative of which to be cautious.

Granted there’s plenty to love about this Badger team, Wilson included. The backfield of Montee Ball and James White forms arguably the most formidable rushing attack in college football. UW also returns a solid receiving corps and talented defenders. Wilson has proven his meddle, starting at North Carolina State for three seasons and in that time passing for nearly 80 touchdowns. But the comparison this blogger made via Twitter is that the separately impressive Wisconsin team and Russell Wilson could be like prime rib and mint chocolate chip ice cream. Both taste great on their own, but the combination doesn’t work.