2011 Preview Blitz: Mountain West Schedule Breakdown

It was oh-so-close. The Mountain West was moments away from becoming top heavy enough to force the Bowl Championship Series’ proverbial hand and make it an auto-bid conference. A marquee lineup of Boise State, TCU, Utah and BYU lasted just hours, and within five months three of the four were gone. A single season incarnation of the MWC ushers in the new era of conference branding, before the true transformation begins.

THE GREAT CONTROVERSY

This season’s MWC Championship is almost assured to be settled in something* of a rubber match between TCU and BSU. The Frogs edged the Broncos in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, a favor BSU returned in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. Either squad is capable of crashing the BCS picture for a third time, anteing up the stakes of this already huge game a few million dollars more. With so much on the line, it’s perplexing the conference brass would move the matchup from Amon G. Carter Stadium, where TCU hasn’t lost since Oct. 2007, to Boise Stadium where BSU hasn’t lost since the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl.

TCU’s agreement to join the Big East was never explicitly given as a reason for moving the Nov. 12 de facto championship game, but given the timing and frankness with which this occurred, it’s not exactly a far leap to make. Venue tips the scale heavily in Boise’s favor. The Broncos are arguably the best home team in college football, right down to utilizing its blue turf with a style uniform that almost camouflages them.

*BSU beat TCU 34-31 in Dec. 2003, coincidentally played at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The game predates either program achieving BCS-level success.

HOME SWEET HOME

San Diego State constructed its resurgence at home. The Aztecs went 6-1 at Qualcomm Stadium last season, and in their sole home loss were driving for the winning score before Ryan Lindley’s interception deep in Utah territory. SDSU is one of the SaturdayBlitz.com conference championship dark horses, predicated largely on hosting both BSU and TCU.

SDSU averaged 36.6 points per game in its seven road games. SDSU’s average output didn’t dip much on the road — 3.5 points per game — but defensively, the Aztecs were notably better defensive in The Q improving from 28.3 to 16.7 points per game.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO AIR FORCE

Since Troy Calhoun took over as Air Force’s head football coach, the Falcons have lost just five games at their USAFA home in Colorado. Four of those opponents were ranked in the Top 25 at the time, Navy in 2008 being the only that wasn’t. Its ability to hold serve at home has served AFA well, which has been to four straight bowl games. That ranked opponent mark though is of note.

Air Force’s sole home win over a ranked foe under Calhoun was in his first season, an overtime defeat of TCU. The Frogs happen to play at AFA in Week 2, and barring a hot start by SDSU will be the only ranked team to come through the Falcons’ neck of the woods.

ALL YOUR INDEPENDENTS ARE BELONG TO AIR FORCE…AS WELL

AFA plays an interesting non-conference slate. Two FCS opponents come to Colorado, South Dakota and Tennessee State. As a result, the Falcons must win seven games to qualify for the postseason. In addition, AFA plays its usual tilts with Army and Navy. Those are to be expected as installments of the annual Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series. But the Falcons also take a trip to Notre Dame, meaning they will play three of college football’s four independents. AFA is the only program to play that many independents, thus it seems only fair should the Falcons sweep, they be named honoree Independent Champions of 2011.

NON-CONFERENCE RIVALS

The SEC is rich with inter-conference rivalries between Florida-Georgia, Alabama-Auburn, Ole Miss-Mississippi State, LSU-Arkansas, and Tennessee-Alabama. The old Pac-10 season would conclude with the Crosstown Showdown, The Big Game, The Duel in the Desert, The Apple Cup and The Civil War. In the Big Ten, they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, Paul Bunyan’s Ax and bragging rights on the Ohio-Michigan border.

While the Mountain West does feature the Border War pitting Colorado State and Wyoming, as a whole it’s devoid of rivalries. Most of the current MWC plays a yearly rival, but these are out-of-conference games. UNLV has its matchup with Nevada; New Mexico and New Mexico State square off; TCU and DFW area neighbor SMU play; and Air Force has its Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series.

Establishing more in-conference rivalries could prove beneficial to building the conference’s brand, but those have to happen organically. Fresno State joins the MWC next year and has something of a rivalry going with BSU, and UNR’s membership in the conference brings over its pre-existing Fremont Cannon skirmish.

SCHEDULE SUPERLATIVE

Toughest Schedule: Boise State

BSU is a clear favorite to win the Mountain West, but should the Broncos finished unbeatean and punch another BCS ticket, it may be the program’s hardest earned. The Broncos journey into SEC territory to face Georgia in Week 1 is highly anticipated, but it’s just one of five non-conference games against 2010 bowl qualifiers. All of them — UGa, Tulsa, Toledo, Fresno State and Nevada — are likely to do so again in 2011.

UGa is the only likely to pose BSU a real challenge, and maybe Fresno State by virtue of hosting, but few programs can claim such an out-of-conference slate. The Broncos draw three more ’10 bowlers in conference: SDSU, AFA and TCU. The two games most likely to determine BSU’s MWC Championship fate are in consecutive weeks, with the Frogs coming to Boise Nov. 12, and the Broncos taking to San Diego the following Saturday.

Cupcake Cup: Wyoming

This is a tough label to hand the Cowboys, based solely on Nebraska taking the hike up to the 7220-foot elevated War Memorial Stadium. But the Huskers represent UW’s only out-of-conference affair with a 2010 bowl team, and presumably its only against a 2011 bowler. UW travels to Bowling Green, which finished 2-10 a season ago, and to Utah State, which went 4-8. Two FCS opponents open the Cowboys’ slate, as Weber State and Texas State both come to Laramie.

Colorado State was in the running by virtue of playing Northern Colorado and four FBS opponents unlikely to reach this year’s postseason (UTEP, Colorado, Utah State and San Jose State) but ultimately UW’s slate had just a bit more frosting.

Top Non-Conference Games

1. Boise State vs. Georgia

(in Atlanta)

A 48-13 pasting at Georgia was the meat of a recent program worst three-game losing skid spanning the end of ’04 and early ’05. The Broncos dropped the 2004 Liberty Bowl to Louisville, then ’05 openers at UGa and Oregon State. This is a much different team from that version, but the memories of getting trounced in SEC Country remain. A win in Atlanta would be a feather in this already proud program’s cap, but Georgia is playing to prove that preseason hype is warranted and opening with a defeat of a preseason Top 5 would help Mark Richt tremendously in a make-or-break campaign.

2. San Diego State at Michigan, Sept. 24

Brady Hoke gave his defensive coordinator, Rocky Long, a fully stocked cupboard with which to work as SDSU’s new head coach. And through sheer coincidence, Long gets to put those components in action against Hoke. SDSU suffered heartbreaking road losses early last season against Missouri and BYU, and later against TCU down the stretch. The combined margin of defeat in those three games was 11 points. Should SDSU parlay the lessons of those defeats against a Michigan bunch undergoing major changes, a big upset could ensue in the Big House.

On the Cougars’ last foray into Jerry World, they shattered the BCS dreams of Oklahoma. TCU will try to avoid a similar fate in this former MWC rivalry’s renewal from a layoff of…12 months.

4. San Diego State at Army, Sept. 10

The Aztecs’ Week 2 trip is the longest distance an FBS team based on the continental United States will travel for one game also in the continental United States.

5. Boise State at Fresno State

Fresno State was never able to fully reestablish its dominance on the WAC after BSU usurped the crown in 2001. The Bulldogs will get a chance to make a statement for their impending MWC arrival, welcoming the Broncos into the Valley.

Top Conference Games

1. TCU at Boise State, Nov. 12

2. TCU at San Diego State, Oct. 8

The Aztecs were five points shy of pulling off a monumental upset last season in Fort Worth. TCU marks SDSU’s first chance at a truly landmark victory in this resurgent period.

3. Boise State at San Diego State, Nov. 19

Should BSU knock off TCU the week prior, SDSU lingers as the perfect trap game. The Broncos dropped their last game at Qualcomm Stadium, the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl defeat against TCU.

4. TCU at Air Force, Sept. 10

5. Air Force at Colorado State, Nov. 26

Some pundits, including Phil Steele, have Colorado State pegged as a surprise bowl team. The Rams will need to hold down the fort in Fort Collins, with likely Nos. 3 and 4 San Diego State and Air Force coming to town.

BONUS: New Mexico at San Diego State, Nov. 5

One down season was all UNM brass needed to see before dismissing Rocky Long, the program’s most successful head coach of modern times. His successor, Mike Locksley, is 2-22 since manning the controls in Albuquerque. Long gets the opportunity to personal put a stamp on the Lobos when UNM comes to Qualcomm