2011 Preview Blitz: SEC Schedule Breakdown

As SEC coaches land top recruiting class after top recruiting class, the conference’s dominance on the BCS Championship perpetuates. It also becomes increasingly clear the SEC is only likely to have its title stranglehold broken from within. This year could be that year. Last month, this very blog broke down how the top-heavy SEC West could have a shake-up so profound, it rumbles all college football to its corps. College Football News and OnsideKick.com’s Barrett Sallee was the first to suggest a three-team, 11-1 tie atop the division. The scenario’s realistic, but all three must survive stiff non-conference challenges before having the opportunity to split the division.

Earning It On The Field

Each of the SEC West’s preseason favorites face at least one genuine challenge outside of its SEC slate. Arkansas renews its rivalry with former Southwest Conference foe Texas A&M one week after traveling to Alabama. The Hogs tussle with the Aggies at Cowboys Stadium on Sept. 24. Arkansas dominated nearly every statistical facet of last season’s Southwest Classic, outgaining the Aggies by nearly 80 yards, but won just 24-17. Neither team scored in the fourth quarter, as Arkansas took the air out of the ball in the second half, controlling possession for nearly 17 minutes.

Of course, the Arkansas game was amid the Aggies’ quarterback controversy. Jerrod Johnson had a nightmare performance in the previous week’s loss at Oklahoma State, at 15-for-40 was arguably worse vs. Arkansas. The Aggies found stability with returning Ryan Tannehill under center.

Alabama travels to Penn State Week 2. Now, the Tide blasted the Nittany Lions last September in Tuscaloosa, but Happy Valley is quite the change in atmosphere. PSU has not lost a home, non-conference game since its disastrous 2003 campaign. The returning defensive corps at PSU is talented and should test the new ‘Bama quarterback — whether that’s AJ McCarron or Philip Sims.

LSU gets a double-dip of potential season-changers. The Texas-sized season opener in Arlington has fans salivating, but don’t nap on the Tigers’ trip to West Virginia a few weeks later. The Mountaineers are a talented bunch now led by an energetic and innovative head coach, Dana Holgorsen. Geno Smith could generate some excitement behind a dark horse Heisman candidacy should he outperform a stout Bayou Bengal defense.

Beware of Starkville

Dan Mullen has made Mississippi State a legitimate threat in just two years as the Bulldogs’ coach. MSU won nine games last season, and could have reached 11 wins. Learning to get over the hump in close games is what truly transforms a program, and if single digit home losses to BCS bowl qualifiers Arkansas and Auburn

The Bulldogs get two of the three SEC West favorites, LSU and Alabama, at home. Defending SEC East winner South Carolina must also travel through the isolated Mississippi town in an inter-divisional contest.

Dubious Streaks

Georgia has dropped three straight games in its rivalry series with Florida. That’s a head-hanging figure for Bulldog fans, and one Mark Richt’s more staunch critics hold over his head. While a win at the climax of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is seemingly necessary for Richt this year, his string of bad luck against the Gators is nothing compared to Kentucky’s futility against Tennessee.

The stage was set for UK to finally end its run of losses to the Volunteers last year. The Wildcats had already secured a place in the postseason and could deny UT one with a victory.

But the Volunteers’ 24-14 victory did more than propel them into the Music City Bowl; it extended UT’s run of victories over UK to a staggering 26. Twenty-six! How a break here or there doesn’t go the Wildcats’ way is perplexing.

Non-Conference Rivalries

Barring Vanderbilt, every SEC team has an SEC rival. Many have two. For Georgia, it’s Florida and Auburn; Alabama has Auburn and Tennessee; UT has ‘Bama and Kentucky; Florida gets UGa and LSU.

There are also more legitimate out-of-conference rivalries involving SEC programs than any other, with Florida-Florida State, Georgia-Georgia Tech and South Carolina-Clemson all closing out the regular season.

All three of these contests could have major implications in 2011. Should Florida State knock off Oklahoma in September, UF could play spoiler to the Seminoles’ championship hopes; and what a welcomed role that would be for the Gators. South Carolina and Georgia could find themselves each be jockeying for late season positioning in polls. One or the other figures to lead the East, and could have a BCS standing at stake while their respective ACC rivalries are young teams that may be fighting for their bowl lives.

Not including anything potentially on the line this season, these ACC-SEC crossover rivalries are important for guaranteeing each of these six programs at least one quality opponent every season.

Out for Revenge

Auburn won six single digit decisions en route to its seventh and final such outcome for the BCS title: at Mississippi State, vs. Clemson, vs. South Carolina, at Kentucky, vs. LSU, and at Alabama. Five of the six mentioned all get their shots at retribution against this season’s Cam Newton-less Tigers.

AU hosts Mississippi State on Sept. 10, travels to Clemson the following week, is back in the Palmetto State to meet South Carolina Oct. 1, comes to LSU Oct. 22 and of course ends the regular season with ‘Bama two days after Thanksgiving, Nov. 26. Only Kentucky misses out on another crack at Gene Chizik’s bunch.

Thanksgiving Appetizers

SEC programs are notorious for loading up on cupcakes prior to the home stretch. This season is no exception. The November barnburners scheduled:

• Nov. 5: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee-Martin; Ole Miss vs. Louisiana Tech
• Nov. 12: Tennessee vs. Middle Tennessee State; LSU vs. Western Kentucky
• Nov. 19: Alabama vs. Georgia Southern; Florida vs. Furman; South Carolina vs. The Citadel

An interesting tidbit about the Alabama – Georgia Southern game is that aside from potentially pitting the same season’s FBS and FCS champions head-to-head, GSU owes much of its tradition to ‘Bama. The Eagle uniforms are patterned after Alabama’s, and for a time the program was known as the “Blue Tide.”

SCHEDULE SUPERLATIVES

Toughest Schedule

It seems only feeling the Mad Hatter Les Miles, ever the king of late game theatrics, draw two frontrunners for other conferences’ championships in Oregon and West Virginia. Neither is in the Valley. The Tigers’ trip to Morgantown follows a Thursday night roadie at Mississippi State.

LSU also travels to Alabama in a contest that may determine the BCS Championship game.

Cupcake Cup

There’s a guaranteed response that follows any criticism of an SEC’s team’s non-conference scheduling: playing in the SEC grants you some leeway to get fat on cupcakes. There’s a certain level of truth to that, and most every team plays a Sun Belt and/or FCS opponent. But the majority of SEC members — 10 of the 12, in fact — draw at least one BCS conference opponent. The exceptions are Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Ole Miss does welcome a should-be improved BYU to The Grove, and travels to California for a date with Fresno State. MSU on the other hand goes no further than Birmingham for its out-of-conference slate. Sub-.500 C-USA teams UAB and Memphis are road trips for the Bulldogs, while Louisiana Tech and UT-Martin come to Starksville.

‘Bama is saved from this dubious via its trip to Happy Valley. Otherwise, the Tide plays Georgia Southern, Kent State and North Texas: not exactly a murderer’s row for a team with championship potential.

Top Non-Conference Games

1. Oregon vs. LSU, Sept. 3 (in Arlington, Texas)

This is a no-brainer, as it’s likely the best non-conference game all season.

2. Georgia vs. Boise State, Sept. 3 (in Atlanta)

The Broncos should have their highest starting position ever, and thus a very real shot at the national championship. Those aspirations go up in flames with any loss, even in Week 1. Georgia poses perhaps the toughest challenge to the Broncos’ BCS dreams, as TCU must play on the Smurf Turf where BSU is almost unbeatable.

UGa has had a tumultuous offseason. Two running backs left the program, leaving freshman Isaiah Crowell to shoulder an even larger burden than was already bestowed him. The stout Bronco defense is

3. LSU at West Virginia, Sept. 24

4. Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, Sept. 24 (in Arlington, Texas)

5. Alabama at Penn State, Sept. 10

Top Conference Games

1t. LSU at Alabama, Nov. 5; Arkansas at Alabama, Sept. 24; Arkansas at LSU, Nov. 26

The three games that will determine the SEC West and perhaps the national championship game should be on every college football fan’s calendar. The Hogs and Tigers accounted for two of Alabama’s stunning four losses last season, but both were on the road. This more talented Tide team needn’t leave Tuscaloosa for these epic clashes.

For one team to stay home, another had to draw two roadies, and the unlucky draw goes to Arkansas. The experienced offensive corps surrounding new quarterback Tyler Wilson means the Razorbacks should take little, if any dip from last year’s 36.5 point per game output. That’s important, as both LSU and Alabama figure to have top 10 defenses.

2. South Carolina at Georgia, Sept. 10

While three games are likely to determine the SEC West, one should suffice in the East. It will still officially be summer when the Gamecocks and Dawgs lock up, but November implications are on the line.

Last season, Marcus Lattimore had his breakout performance against UGa. The aforementioned Crowell will seek a similar kind of showing in his SEC debut.

This is an interesting game for Georgia, as the Dawgs managed to avoid LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from the West. That means UGa. could possibly have played every ranked opponent for the season by Week 2, barring a surprise overachiever.

3. Florida at South Carolina, Nov. 12

Steve Spurrier finally bested his former program last season in Gainesville, and this season could make it two in a row. The Gators appear to have an uphill climb back to BCS caliber, while USC is on the cusp of that. This season’s might mark the first time the Gamecocks are truly favored in this series.