2011 Preview Blitz: Sun Belt Schedule Breakdown
By Kyle Kensing
The Sun Belt has long been the Div. I-A/FBS forgotten child. Now that may change when the WAC undergoes a major change next season, but in the meantime the Sun Belt may still be confused for an FCS league by some. There’s potential for big things in the conference this year, though. Both FIU and Troy have the makings of potential to be breakout non-automatic qualifying stars. The rest of the league is even enough that the league slate itself should be entertaining.
Busting the BCS
FIU dropped a pair of single digit decisions to BCS conference opponents, Rutgers 19-14 and Texas A&M 27-20. The Golden Panthers were also in striking distance of Maryland before the Terrapins pulled away in the final minutes. This season, FIU has two prime opportunities to strike a blow against the Big Six in 2011.
FIU is a talented team, perhaps the best roster the Sun Belt has had. It earned a national, primetime broadcast in its Week 2 contest with Louisville.
The Golden Panthers host Duke in Week 5 in a match-up likely to result in a combined score over 60.
Another high quality match-up for Mario Cristobal’s bunch is its Week 3 meeting with in-state foe UCF. The two squads are among the better non-automatic qualifiers this season, and should provide a fun match-up, examined in greater detail below.
A Fortunate Draw
Arkansas State finished 4-8 last season, an ugly record to be sure. But the RedWolves were also the victim of five single digit losses, and played two of the conference’s top teams on the road (FIU and Troy). This season, ASU hosts both the Golden Panthers and Trojans. That’s a major boon to the RedWolves’ conference championship aspirations, which are very realistic with a potentially potent offense returning its top weapons.
Sun Belt vs. SEC
There are seven Sun Belt vs. SEC contests this season. A Sun Belt member hasn’t beaten an SEC opponent since ULM shocked Alabama in 2007. The next season, Troy put a scare into LSU that was only erased after a raucous third quarter rally. The SEC’s dominance isn’t likely to be threatened anytime soon, particularly this season with most of the seven match-ups featuring the Sun Belt’s weaker teams. The complete slate:
- Western Kentucky at Kentucky, Sept. 1
- FAU at Florida, Sept. 3
- North Texas at Alabama, Sept. 17
- Troy at Arkansas, Sept. 17
- FAU at Auburn, Sept. 24
- MTSU at Tennessee, Nov. 5
- Western Kentucky at LSU, Nov. 12
SCHEDULE SUPERLATIVES
Toughest Schedule
Boca Raton is a retirement hot spot due to its gorgeous weather and prime beach location. Too bad FAU doesn’t get to reap those benefits until the mid-season. The Owls open with FIVE straight road games, including an opening three of Florida, Michigan State and Auburn. That is an absolutely taxing slate.
FAU’s first home game is Oct. 15 when conference opponent Western Kentucky comes to town. WKU is one of just five teams playing in the brand new FAU Stadium, which is part of a massive campus overhaul that will result in a whole new sector called Innovation Village. The pushed back home debut is to ensure the stadium is ready to go in time.
A very close runner-up is Louisiana-Monroe, which has never been to a bowl game nor been over .500 since joining the Bowl Subdivision in 2005. This season’s schedule is certainly not conducive to the Warhawks snapping this streak. Out-of-conference, ULM opens the season at national championship contender Florida State, then after hosting Grambling travels to both TCU and Iowa.
As a result of playing three paycheck games in the non-conference schedule, ULM gets just five total home games.
Cupcake Cup
Considering Sun Belt programs need the split television and ticket revenues of playing BCS conference opponents, there really isn’t a member that can load up on softies. If anything, many Sun Belt teams end up being the cupcakes on which ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 members load up.
Top Non-Conference Games
1. FIU vs. UCF, Sept. 17
The caliber of Florida prep football is evident in the rise of these lower tier Sunshine State programs. Both programs are young, and each had monumental struggles very recently. Yet, each has quickly ascended the ladder and each is coming off an historic campaign.
There is a fun juxtaposition in the team’s styles. FIU is a more uptempo offense, trusting quarterback Wesley Carroll to toss it around. UCF is a defensive oriented squad, last year ranking in the top 15 nationally in rushing defense (eight), total defense (15) and scoring defense (eight). The Knights use a run-based offense, which quarterback Jeffrey Godfrey took over running from Rob Calabrese early on. Godfrey doesn’t pass often, but is effective when doing so.
The ante on this game is certainly upped if FIU handles business in the next match-up featured.
2. FIU at Louisville, Sept. 9
The Golden Panthers’ Friday night, ESPN showcase is a momentous occasion for the program. It’s FIU’s first nationally televised regular season game against a well-coached team. The Golden Panther offense will get a test from the newly stingy Cardinals.
3. Troy at Navy
Two of the better non-automatic qualifier programs of the last half-decade square off, and the possibility of offensive fireworks linger in Annapolis. The Naval Academy has produced many of the top rushing offenses over the last few seasons, and when paired with a high caliber passing opponent such as Troy, the result is typically combustible. See Navy’s match-ups with East Carolina and SMU last year, and North Texas a few season ago.
4. Arkansas State at Illinois, Sept. 3
Ron Zook’s Fighting Illini appear posed for a surprise run in the Big Ten. That said, things never quite go as planned for the Zooker, and what could possibly be more Zook’ian than Arkansas State pulling off a Week 1 upset?
5. MTSU vs. Georgia Tech, Sept. 10
That an ACC member is coming into Sun Belt territory is a somewhat noteworthy event. As mentioned above, almost always members of the Sun Belt take non-conference games against BCS conference members without the promise of a home return. The smaller schools get their lofty paycheck and reinvest in the program. In traveling to Murfreesboro, Paul Johnson is taking a risk few other coaches would.
It’s actually the second straight season Rick Stockstill has secured a home game against a BCS conference program. Last season in the opener, the Blue Raiders were edged by Minnesota, 24-17. Now had these two teams met last year with an eligible Dwight Dasher and healthy Josh Nesbitt, it would have had high potential. This year there’s less punch to it, mainly because MTSU is a question mark
Top Conference Games
1. Troy at FIU, Oct. 25
These two teams are the Sun Belt’s best on paper, which should make this the de facto championship. Both offenses are capable of putting up big numbers. An offensive shootout would be great exposure for the conference, and top quarterbacks Carroll and Corey Robinson can certainly provide it.
. FIU at Arkansas State, Oct. 18
One of ASU’s proving ground games, the RedWolves could take advantage of FIU napping in preparation for its game the following week vs. Troy.
Last season’s meeting in Miami was noteworthy for SaturdayBlitz.com Detmer Award candidate and stud wideout TY Hilton making the ASU defense look silly en route to scoring the game-winner.
3. MTSU at ULM, Nov. 12
Beyond Troy and FIU at the top, and likely Louisiana and North Texas at the bottom, the rest of the Sun Belt is seemingly interchangeable. There are three bowl bids up for grabs, and either of these two teams could secure one. Last season’s match-up in Murfreesboro was no sweat for MTSU, but the Warhawks were significantly better at home.
4. Troy at Arkansas State, Nov. 26
Both teams’ bowl aspirations will be tested in this penultimate regular season clash.
5. FIU at Western Kentucky, Nov. 5
The Hilltoppers showed marked improvement in their third season of FBS competition. Their final record was an unimpressive 2-10, but WKU found itself battling in games that previously would have been blowouts, dropping four conference games by a combined 14 points. Those affairs go differently, and WKU is playing in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. One such loss was a 28-21 decision at FIU.
Previously I mentioned the Troy-preceding game vs. ASU being a trap potential for FIU; coming in to face WKU and well-kept secret Bobby Rainey after the Troy match-up certainly has letdown potential.