USC’ing Something in Trojans Not There

Clinging to the past prevents one from working toward the future, and many a college football pundit is living like it’s 2004.

"USCBest in the Pac-12 South? Probably, although if ASU lives up to Erickson’s proclamation, it could be a tossup."

Attribution on the above quote goes to Joe McDonnell over at FOXsports.com in his Pac-12 preview. This isn’t intended as a call out against McDonnell, a sports media staple of Southern California (his predicting UCLA third in the Pac-12 South on the other hand…). McDonnell’s opinion is hardly unique. A majority of outlets have the Trojans tabbed atop an admittedly questionable South. Athlon went so far as to pencil in the Trojans for the inaugural Pac-12 title game and preseason top 20 ranking, the former being predicated on USC winning its appeal to the NCAA (it lost just four days after I picked up the Athlon preview).

Inevitability, every preseason there are those programs almost universally projected for greatness that fail to deliver. My own prognosticating is Mendoza Line quality at best, so when I get something right I have to shout it from the rooftops. I did not buy into Ole Miss in 2009. I did not buy into Washington last season. And I don’t buy into USC this year, anymore than I did last season when a disconcertingly loud conservation of these same Trojans going 13-0 started.

The difference between USC and the aforementioned two programs is USC has a pattern of recent success. Ole Miss rides success in modest waves with peaks proportionate to the valleys. Washington was once a powerhouse, but in just the second phase of a complete program overhaul a decade behind. The Trojans remain a fixture in football fans and media members’ minds, thanks to a very recent and very impressive run.

Take Phil Steele, whose exhaustive research I hope to one day emulate at even a fraction. His preseason publication picking USC at or right near the top of the Pac is as sure as oxygen is essential to life. The 2011 version is no different, finding USC in the futilely frustrating top spot of its division with no pay-off.

Understandably, a significant portion of faith vested in the Trojans comes from starting a very talented and well-seasoned quarterback. Matt Barkley is entering his third season as the No. 1 quarterback and barring something catastrophic, he’s NFL bound. So far so good, right?

My lack of excitement for this USC team may be based on my luke warm attitude on Barkley himself. His talent is undeniable, and to reiterate he will be an NFL selection — perhaps a first rounder. However, there exists this misconception he’s not far behind Andrew Luck as the conference’s best quarterback. Well, in two seasons, 26 total games, he has 41 touchdowns and 5500-plus yards. Those are outstanding totals, but his 26 interceptions and 61.3 percent completions are less so.

Compare those figures to Arizona’s Nick Foles, who in three fewer games has thrown for over 200 yards more. Granted Foles is in a more pass oriented offense, but he’s also thrown seven fewer interceptions and has a completion percentage four points higher.

Barkley is a very good quarterback, and should continue to improve to his junior year as he did from freshman-to-sophomore years, but it’s a leap to suggest he’s a clear second, or even third best quarterback in the Pac. But relying on Barkley’s far more logical than assuming the ground game will return to its championship form.

Pete Carroll recruited running backs after LenDale White and Reggie Bush left like his life depending on it. In 2007, the Trojans had a mind-boggling six prep All-American tailbacks. Yet, USC hasn’t had a runner near the level of either Bush or White since their departures. Marc Tyler may carry on to TMZ like a Heisman back, but he has a long way to go. He went through waves of greatness last season, peppered with lulls of mediocrity. Such has been the case for most highly touted Trojan backs post-Bush: CJ Gable, Joe McKnight, Stefan Johnson; none have performed at first team All-Pac levels, albeit for Johnson, largely due to something out of his control.

USC did boast defenses in 2007 and especially 2008 that carried underachieving offenses. Those days are long gone. At nearly 27 points per game surrendered, the Trojans finished in the bottom half of the Bowl Subdivision. That hadn’t happen since the days of Petros Papadakis putting on the cardinal-and-gold. Meanwhile, the Trojans lost Jurrell Casey, Shareece Wright and Malcolm Smith, and face four top 30 scoring offenses in Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State and Utah.

Last season’s Trojans finished 8-5, but were also the beneficiary of fortuitous close decisions. Credit where it’s due, USC made the plays necessary to outlast the Arizonas, but neither game was exactly a shining testament to the Trojans’ might. The home defeat of Arizona State featured the normally surefooted Thomas Weber missing a 42-yarder late that would have given A-State a lead with less than 100 seconds left, after the would-be tying point, a PAT was blocked.

The UA game was the very next week, and decided by three points. UA could muster only three touchdowns, all Foles passes, but racked up over 400 yards. The beginning of Alex Zendejas’ unraveling was evident on this nightcap. He missed a gimme field goal in the first quarter, which was the initial of three Wildcat possessions to reach the Trojan red zone that yielded no points.

A single play goes differently in each contest, and we’re talking about a sub-.500 team.

Ultimately, a team’s preparedness starts at the top, and that brings us to the final question mark that separates these Trojans from those of recent memory. Lane Kiffin is 15-11 as a collegiate head coach. Exclude is final season, and that’s the same number of losses Carroll had in his entire USC tenure.

Kiffin is young and has a very small sample size from which to judge, so presumably he’s growing as a coach. Expecting the epiphany to come in just his third season with as much talent going out as coming in is asking for a miracle. The immediate descent of the defense has to be seen as troubling, particularly given it was about the same quality his one season at Tennessee. Monte Kiffin’s defensive credentials are well established, but a young corps and lack of depth mean baptism by fire. In the potent Pac, that’s not going to produce a shut-down unit.

The Trojans are most certainly not a bad team. History will likely prove Kiffin more comparable to a Larry Smith than a Paul Hackett. He’s just not a Pete Carroll, and that’s what pundits need to understand. All empires fall eventually.