CAA Preview – Week Four

In these last two weeks of college football, we have been teased by one conference game in the Colonial Athletic Association.  Two weeks ago Towson defeated Villanova 31-10 and just as this author predicted, last week UMass rallied to beat Rhode Island, 36-27.  The Minutemen scored 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to come away with a win, getting more than 200 yards rushing from senior Jonathan Hernandez. 

This week there are three games pitting CAA teams against each other, as the conference schedule starts to pick up.  Old Dominion plays its first conference football game in Newark, DE, against the Fightin’ Blue Hens.  James Madison follows up its thrilling, last-second win at Liberty with a trip to The College of William and Mary.  In the third CAA matchup, the University of New Hampshire attempts to tighten up its defense against the undefeated Richmond Spiders.  We’ll have a preview of these games and all others involving CAA teams after the jump.

Last season the UNH Wildcats made the second round of the FCS playoffs on the strength of its defense, which ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense (16.5 points allowed per game).  Two of its five returning starters on defense (LB Matt Evans and DE Brian McNally) were Buck Buchanan Award finalists last season.  But 2011 has been a different story, as New Hampshire has already surrendered 58 points to Toledo and 41 points to Lehigh.  Quarterback Kevin Decker has led the way for the Wildcats on offense with 492 passing yards, four touchdown passes and a completion percentage of more than 70%.

Meanwhile Richmond has started its season with three straight wins heading into the weekend, having defeated Duke, Wagner and VMI.  2010 First Team All-CAA WR Tre Gray has 18 receptions for 310 yards and two touchdowns through three games.  The defense has given up only 15 points per game.  With a healthy Aaron Corp stabilizing the quarterback position, Richmond has already reached half of its 2010 win total.

Until New Hampshire shows that their defense has righted the ship, the smart money is on Richmond to win this contest.  Richmond is playing with momentum and supreme confidence after earning the conference’s only win over a BCS program this year (to date).  The Wildcats had a bye last week and head coach Sean McDonnell is sure to have addressed the team’s defensive woes.  However, Richmond’s offensive line should be able to protect Corp from Evans and McNally, allowing the Spiders to win in a shootout.

Heading further down Interstate 95, the James Madison Dukes will take on the W&M Tribe in Williamsburg, VA in the first conference game for both teams.  Although both teams have 2-1 records and won last week by three points on late field goals (JMU as time expired, W&M with three minutes left), the results had vastly different reverberations for their teams.  The Dukes were playing a high-powered Top 25 offense in Liberty on the road and scored the winning field goal with no time remaining.  Meanwhile the Tribe struggled to defeat New Haven of Division II land at home, getting the decisive three points late in the fourth quarter.

During the tenure of head coach Mickey Matthews, the Dukes have been a run-oriented offense.  This season Dae’Quan Scott is averaging 91 rushing yards per game in addition to chipping in with four touchdowns.  Quarterback Justin Thorpe has performed his job without spectacular statistics, throwing for 340 yards at a completion rate of almost 66%.  Meanwhile the Tribe are switching starting quarterbacks in hopes of jump-starting the offense.  The ineffective Michael Paulus is replaced by backup Michael Graham for this game.  No matter the quarterback, the Dukes should expect to see several rush attempts by Jonathan Grimes.

It is difficult to explain William and Mary’s offensive woes this season.  The offensive line returned five players who had 41 starts last season, and senior Grimes is one of the top running backs in the CAA.  Typically the quarterback receives too much blame when things aren’t going well, but in this scenario it may be the correct assessment.  Paulus has completed less than 40% of his passes in three games for less than 200 yards and one touchdown against one INT.  The Tribe’s best chance is to run with Grimes and keep Scott on the sidelines, keeping the score as low as possible.  But the Dukes have too much momentum for the Tribe and should open its conference slate with a win.

In the third and final conference game, Old Dominion University takes another historic step in its current incarnation of football.  It played its first two seasons as an FCS Independent, accumulating a record of 17-5.  After winning their first three games in 2011, the Monarchs take the longest current winning streak (eight games) into Delaware to take on (GULP) the 2010 FCS national runners-up.  Welcome to CAA Football!

Last season ODU played unexpectedly well against two top 25 teams in W&M and the Cal-Poly Mustangs, losing by a combined 17 points in electric atmospheres.  The problem the Monarchs will face the next eight weeks is that it requires depth to play such high-caliber teams week after week.  While the starters on offense, defense and special teams have proven themselves against inferior competition, the team’s depth is relatively unproven.

(Author’s note – an analysis of the Monarchs’ performance to date can be found here.)

With respect to Jonathan Grimes and the Tribe last season, the Monarchs have not faced a team of Delaware’s quality in its previous 25 games.  Sophomore Andrew Pierce is among the national leaders in rushing yards per game.  The team returned four starters from last season’s offensive line that allowed him to rush for 1,655 yards in 15 games last season.

The Hens lost All-American quarterback Pat Devlin, who made the practice team of the Miami Dolphins this season, and were expecting Trevor Sasek to take his place.  But Sasek was injured in the season opener to Navy.  Tim Donnelly has performed admirably in Sasek’s absence, completing more than 80% of his passes with a three-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.  On defense the Hens lost several starters in the secondary, including two All-Americans.  But the defensive line should continue to excel and lead the team back to the playoffs this season.

The Monarchs’ best chance to win is to play mistake-free football and force at least one turnover on special teams.  Old Dominion has blocked three punts the last two games, all of which led to touchdowns.  Quarterback Thomas DeMarco must exploit the Hens’ youthful secondary and get the ball regularly to his talented receiver corps.  But ODU has not played an offensive line of this quality to date, and the largest crowd it has faced on the road was an announced 11K at Georgia State.  The pick is to go with Delaware, who will run Andrew Pierce regularly against Old Dominion in a rude welcome to the conference.

Four other Colonial teams have OOC games on the schedule.  UMass plays at Boston College, the next-to-last opponent a CAA team faces this season (Towson plays at Maryland next weekend).  The Eagles come in winless in three contests while the Minutemen are 2-0 with wins over Holy Cross and Rhode Island.  Boston College lost to Duke last weekend, which lost to Richmond in the first week of the season.  But a BCS atmosphere may be too much for UMass quarterback Kellen Pagel, who is making only his second career collegiate start.

The Minutemen share first place in the CAA with Towson University, who hosts Colgate after a bye last week.  The Tigers have outscored their opponents 73-13 in two games.  Of particular note is that the Raiders’ All-American running back, Nate Euchas, will miss his second consecutive game with an undisclosed injury.  Expect the Tigers to dominate both lines of scrimmage against this PFL team and secure its third win of the season.

The winless Rhode Island Rams play their first home game of the season, setting up a Ram-on-Ram contest with Fordham University.  The URI Rams lost its games against Syracuse and UMass by a combined 16 points, so the team is better than most programs with 0-2 records.  Fordham comes into the game with a 1-1 record, suffering a big loss to Connecticut and defeating Columbia by a touchdown.  Rhode Island should handle this PFL team that lost 23 lettermen from last season’s 5-6 record.

Lastly, Villanova hosts Pennsylvania University.  Wildcats head coach Andy Talley will start senior Christian Culicerto after Marlon Calbi literally and figuratively dropped the ball last week in a loss to Monmouth.  While Penn won nine of its ten games last season, it lost 15 starters from last year’s squad.  The Quakers have played only game to date, a loss to Lafayette last week.  Despite Villanova’s challenges this season, its pure athleticism along with a seasoned quarterback will set it up for its first win of the season.

Maine has the lone bye week among CAA teams this season, but there is more than enough excitement from the teams in action.  It says here that Richmond, James Madison and Delaware each earn their first CAA wins of the season.  Other than UMass, all other CAA teams in action against OOC opponents should win this weekend.  Next week there are four conference games that will be examined, but much will be learned from this week’s conference games.