On Mountain High: BCS realignment could work in Mountain West’s favor

In 2006, the Great Northwest Athletic Conference (GNAC), of which my Western Washington Vikings were members, dissolved as a football conference after the Humboldt State Lumberjacks left for the California Collegiate Athletic Association and the football members of the conference were down to Western, Central Washington and Western Oregon.

For the next two years, Western and Central Washington opted to join the North Central Conference (NCC), comprised of some of the best Division II football programs in the country. If I was a betting man, I’d bet my life savings that Western’s decision to join the NCC instead of going independent as Western Oregon did, was the straw that broke the camel’s back and directly led to the cancellation of Western’s football program.

For two seasons, the Western athletic department spent thousands of dollars on travel expenses for multiple trips to the Midwest. At the same time, we struggled to match up against top-caliber schools, some of which are no longer Division II schools, but instead Division I-FCS. When Dixie State joined Division II and the GNAC brought back football, the future of the conference was bright. Although it was rumored that Simon Fraser was on it’s way to becoming an NCAA and GNAC member, by that time the damage had been done. Western did not have enough money to survive state budget cuts and the football program became a budget-cut casualty.

I’m not trying to use this column as a rant. Instead, it should be considered as a cautionary tale to those schools chasing big money and more prestige.

For starters, be careful what you wish for. Billy Donovan once chose to leave Florida to coach the NBA’s Orlando Magic but quickly realized it wasn’t what he wanted and returned to Florida. Donovan’s decision, for the most part, affected only a small collection of individuals and could quite easily be fixed by Orlando hiring another head coach. It’s not as easy to go back on a decision to change conferences. I’m looking at you, TCU.

This week has been a tumultuous week regarding conference alignment. Texas and the Oklahoma were on the verge of joining the Pac-12 in its first season of expansion since 1976. Texas A&M already reached an agreement to join the SEC and in a middle-of-the-night agreement, Pittsburgh and Syracuse jumped from the Big East to the ACC.

Amid all the changes, NCAA President Mark Emmert, formerly the president at the University of Washington, issued a cautionary statement to the NCAA institutions choosing or considering switching conferences. Although the NCAA cannot interfere with how NCAA institutions choose to align, Emmert urged the schools to not just think about the allure of more money from a bigger conference, but instead consider the potential toll on the students-athletes and how increased travel, particularly mid-week, could have a drastic impact on academics.

Travel expenses for TCU, which is joining the Big East next year, will undoubtedly increase with more trips from Texas to the East Coast. In addition, while most of the realignment discussions center on TV contracts and football-generated revenue, the effects of a conference change will dramatically affect all the other sports that compete in weekday games and events.

This week, in a move that appears to further curb conference realignment, at least for the time being, the Pac-12 chose against adding Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma state, a move primarily related to Texas’ Longhorn Sports Network.

Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, arguably three of the Big 12’s top institutions, with Texas and Oklahoma as the biggest, now must go crawling back to the Big 12 with their tails between their legs to regroup and figure out how to salvage and stabilize a conference they were trying to desert.

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again. Amid all this talk of BCS-conference realignment, the Mountain West is sitting in a pretty good position right now. As one of the youngest conferences in the NCAA, the Mountain West was a byproduct of the WAC’s decision to expand from 10 to 16 teams back in 1996. After operating as an 8-team conference from 1999 to 2005, the Mountain West added TCU. In 2012, the Mountain West will expand once again, also at the WAC’s expense, and increase it’s team total to 10.

In my opinion, the 12 teams is the ideal conference size, allowing for separate divisions and a conference title game. Once you start expanding to 14 or 16 teams, the battle to win a conference championship and claim an automatic BCS berth becomes increasingly difficult and more teams stand to get left out of the national title discussion.

Air Force has been rumored to be on the Big East’s radar in the event the Big East loses any more teams, particularly to the SEC. The Mountain West cannot afford to lose Air Force and therefore I think the Mountain West should attempt to expand once more and add an 11th and 12th team.

Like most conferences, the Mountain West already has it’s own television network, The Mountain. If it could secure two additional teams, possibly Baylor out of the Big 12 and another WAC school such as Utah State, the conference could split into two division and qualify for a conference-title game. This could enhance the Mountain Wests ability to become a BCS conference amid all the fluctuation with the current BCS conferences.

Given the Mountain West’s pending expansion to 10 teams in 2012, 2011 continues to be an important year with regards to Mountain West football. As we move toward conference play, the Mountain West currently has two teams ranked in the top-25 in Boise State and TCU. With big wins this weekend, San Diego State could join them and Wyoming could be knocking on the door.

Last week, a bad week for my picks, I incorrectly chose San Diego State AND Wyoming to both lose. This week, at 3-0, each team has a chance to knock off a ranked opponent and gain national respect. San Diego State travels east to play No. 22 Michigan while Wyoming hosts No. 9 Nebraska. A win for San Diego State surely puts the Aztecs in the top 25 for the first time this year and a win for Wyoming would give the program its first victory ever against Nebraska and first win against a top-10 team in Laramie since beating No. 8 Arizona State 45-43 in 1976.

Let’s get to this weeks picks. Like I said, last week was rough as I went 2-5 for an overall record 7-11 through three weeks.

San Diego State (+10.5) vs. Michigan
Pick: These two programs have only played once, back in 2004. In that game, for which Michigan had future-NFLers Chad Henne and Braylon Edwards at QB and WR, Michigan eked out a 24-21 victory at the Big House. In this week’s match up, San Diego State plays another 9 a.m. PT game but has the added bonus of trying to exact revenge on Brady Hoke for jumping ship after leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 record and bringing home Mountain West coach-of-the-year honors. I think the Aztecs pull off the upset and jump into the top-25 rankings.
San Diego State wins/covers 31-27

Portland State at No. 20 TCU (-45)
Pick: When trying to find a line for this game I came across this 45-point line favoring TCU. I know Portland State is an FCS opponent, but considering the Horned Frogs have struggled against spread passing attacks at Baylor and more recently Louisiana Monroe, I don’t see TCU winning this game by more than that 45-point margin.
TCU win/doesn’t cover 42-14

Sam Houston State at New Mexico (+5)
Pick: New Mexico is coming off two brutal losses to Arkansas and then Texas Tech by large margins. Although they are five-point underdogs, I think this is the most winnable game for the Lobos so far and if Mike Locksley hopes to keep his job past this season, these are the games he cannot afford to lose.
New Mexico wins/covers 31-27

No. 9 Nebraska at Wyoming (+21)
Pick: This is being dubbed The most anticipated event in Wyoming football history and marks the first matchup between the two schools in Laramie. Nebraska is coming off a 51-point showing against Washington at home in Lincoln, but the week before Nebraska nearly lost on the road at Fresno State. Wyoming needs to get out to a fast start if they hope to keep the game close into the second half. I think Wyoming competes and covers, but doesn’t secure the victory.
Wyoming loses/covers 45-28

Tulsa at No. 4 Boise State (-28)
Pick: Last week I thought Boise would have a tough time playing on the road against a Toledo squad who had never lost to a top-25 team at the Glass Bowl. Barring some Toledo errors, the Rockets could have kept the game close, but Kellen Moore and the Bronco offense exploded in the second half and Boise covered easily. Even though the spread on this game is 28, I think the Broncos should cover without problem at home.
Boise State wins/covers 48-17

Colorado State (+10.5) at Utah State
Pick: Utah State nearly pulled off a huge upset week one against Auburn but let the victory slip through the cracks in the final two minutes of the game. The following week they crushed FCS Weber State and following last week’s bye, they get the Rams at home where they are 49-29-2 in Homecoming games. After last week’s loss to Colorado, I think the Rams lose once against this week in a heart breaker.
Colorado State loses/covers 34-31

Southern Utah at UNLV (-10.5)
Pick: UNLV lost their first two games allowing 51 and 59 points to Wisconsin and Washington State. That being said, both games were on the road and when UNLV finally played at home last week, as 18-point underdogs to Hawaii, they laid a whooping on the road team, doubling them up 40-20. As 10.5 favorites this week and once again playing at home, I like UNLV in this one.
UNLV wins/covers 38-21