CAA Preview – Week 5

Week Four of Colonial Athletic Association Football provided a wide range of games.  There was a shootout between top-25 teams.  There was a defensive struggle between another set of top-25 teams.  In a third game, a top-10 team held off an upstart program trying to prove itself in one of the best FCS conferences.  Fans of CAA Football should expect nothing less in this week’s action, which includes four conference games and the league’s final out-of-conference game against an FBS opponent.

Members of the conference have won 17 of its 18 games against OOC games against FCS opponents, and can claim Richmond’s win over Duke as another victory over Football Bowl Subdivision opponents.  (Readers may remember wins over FBS foes by JMU, William and Mary, Richmond, Villanova and New Hampshire over the last three years.)  The conference is looking to continue its tradition of sending four-to-five programs to the FCS playoffs this season.  After the jump, we’ll take a look at the weekend’s conference games that could impact the playoffs.

The most intriguing CAA game of the weekend takes place at the upgraded Bridgeforth Stadium, where James Madison hosts The University of Richmond.  The Dukes ran their way for 271 rushing yards to defeat the Tribe of William and Mary 20-14, completing three of its four pass attempts.  The heavy reliance on the running game should serve JMU well in upcoming games, as their starting quarterback has been suspended indefinitely for rules violations. 

While James Madison held on to win in a close, lower-score game, Richmond ended up losing to New Hampshire 45-43 for its first loss of the season.  The Wildcats scored 28 points against the Spiders in the second quarter, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns.  One of those two interceptions was provided by Buchanan Award candidate Matt Evans, who leads the CAA with 52 tackles through only three games.  Richmond QB Aaron Corp completed 35 passes for 351 yards; Tre Gray led Spider receivers with 16 catches and 194 yards.

The outcome of this game is difficult to predict without knowing how a change  in starting quarterbacks affects the Dukes’ offensive game plan.  James Madison defeated a solid W&M team despite attempting only four (FOUR!) passes; its defense surrendered only 14 points and allowed the Dukes to play ball-control on offense.  If Richmond solves the Dukes’ defense and puts up anywhere near 43 points, it will force unproven JMU quarterbacks to score points through the air.  We expect, though, that the Dukes clamp down the Spiders’ offense and deliver a JMU victory on Homecoming weekend.

Although William and Mary suffered a defeat against JMU, they may have found their long-term answer at quarterback in the loss.  Replacing Michael Paulus at starting QB, Michael Graham threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns against a top-tier FCS defense last week.  Graham will have another chance to make his case for to secure the starter’s position against a Villanova team that is struggling against inexperience and injuries.

Christian Culicerto led the Wildcats to a 30-21 victory of Penn last week.  The offense was aided by two 26-yard interceptions returned for touchdowns, including one with twelve seconds remaining in the game.  Villanova is struggling to get in the win column this season, losing games against a great Temple program, an upstart Towson team and Monmouth.  Coach Andy Talley chose to start Marlon Calbi over senior Culicerto against Monmouth, but turned to Culicerto after Calbi struggled.

Even on the road, an experienced Tribe team will prove to be too much against Villanova.  Michael Doss (179 rushing yards) and Dorian Wells (217 receiving yards) have been consistent threats for the Wildcats.  However, the steady Jonathan Grimes will prove to be too much.  Grimes is fourth in the CAA with 150 all-purpose yards per game.  Expect the Tribe to run Grimes regularly for a key road win in conference play.

Delaware travels to Maine for the Hens’ second consecutive conference game.  While the Black Bears had a bye last week, Delaware survived a scare against the CAA’s newest member (Old Dominion).  The Hens struggled through early mistakes to eventually hang on for a ten-point victory over the Monarchs.  Of more importance than the outcome of that game, sophomore running back Andrew Pierce suffered a minor knee injury.  As of the time of this article, Pierce’s status for this week is unknown.

Delaware enters the game 3-1 with its lone loss coming at the hands of Navy.  Maine comes in with wins against Bryant and Albany while giving the University of Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 35-29 loss.  Although both teams have received great individual performances to date, this game will be decided by the battle between Delaware’s offensive line and Maine’s defensive line.  Although Delaware managed only 80 rushing yards last week, it provided quarterback Tim Donnelly enough time to complete 26 of 39 passes for 304 against the Monarchs.

Maine has registered nine sacks through three games to date, including three by Michael Cole to tie for the league lead.  Conversely Delaware has surrendered only three sacks in four games.  The Hens’ offensive line returned four starters from last season’s FCS national runner-up team.  Even if Pierce cannot play against Maine, the offensive line will prove to be too much against the Black Bears, and UD will earn its second consecutive conference win.

In the final CAA conference game of the weekend, UMass travels to Norfolk to take on Old Dominion.  The game will prove to be an answer to the trivia question, “Who was ODU’s opponent in its first home conference game?”  After the 2011 season, the Minutemen will join the Mid-American Conference (MAC) for football.  It is not expected that UMass and ODU will play in the foreseeable future, considering UMass’ new FBS classification and the deeper tradition it has against other former members of the Yankee conference.  Old Dominion won’t face UMass in football for a long time.

Both teams come into this weekend following losses in its prior game.  The visiting Minutemen could not recover from early mistakes against Boston College of the ACC, while the Monarchs learned the importance of playing a full 60 minutes against CAA opponents.  Jonathan Hernandez, a senior running back for UMass, is tied for the league lead in rushing yards with 398, despite playing only three games.  His average of 133 rushing yards is 29 yards per game better than the second-best CAA rusher, Colby Goodwyn of ODU.

This game will come down to two simple factors.  Massachusetts must establish the run with Hernandez against the best run defense in the CAA through four games; Old Dominion has allowed 88 rushing yards per game, including only 80 last week against Delaware.  The second factor is ODU’s passing attack against UMass’ pass defense.  The Minutemen will be without two starters in its secondary entering this game; ODU’s passing game is built on getting the ball quickly to its receivers and letting them operate in space.

Through 26 games in two-plus seasons, Old Dominion has lost to all three top-25 opponents it has faced – William and Mary, Cal-Poly and now Delaware.  Until the Monarchs prove that they can defeat a top-tier FCS program like UMass, it is difficult to predict them to win.  Expect the Monarchs to play tough against another CAA team but make one mistake too many that leads to another close defeat.

In non-conference games, Towson heads south down I-95 to battle the Maryland Terrapins.  The sexy pick would be to choose the Tigers over Maryland; Towson is riding high with three straight wins while UMD stumbles in with losses in consecutive games.  But it’s too difficult to predict FCS-level talent to defeat BCS-level talent on a regular basis, so expect Maryland to win a game that will seem too close for fans uneducated to what Coach Rob Ambrose is building at Towson.

In the last two games involving CAA teams, New Hampshire hosts Holy Cross while Rhode Island travels to Brown.  The Wildcats have overcome allowing 47 points per game (including almost 60 against Toledo) by defeating Lehigh by seven in OT and Richmond by two on the road.  At 2-1, New Hampshire is putting itself in position to make the playoffs again this season; its defense should get on track this week against 2-1 Holy Cross team that has defeated inferior teams.  Meanwhile Rams’ quarterback Steve Probst leads Rhode Island against Brown, a team whose lone victory was over Stony Brook.  Probst and running back Travis Hurd will be too much for the Brown Bears.

To date, we are 4-1 in predicting CAA conference games; the lone incorrect pick came last week when we expected Richmond to defeat UNH but lost by two points.  This week we’re going with James Madison, William and Mary, Delaware and UMass to pull out wins.  Towson will lose a close game to Maryland while URI and Maine continue the CAA’s success against OOC FCS opponents.