CAA Preview – Week 6

At this point in the season, most college football teams have completed the majority of their out of conference schedule.  Teams of the Colonial Athletic Association have won 18 of their 20 OOC games involving FCS teams (not FBS or sub-Division 1 programs) for an amazing 90% winning percentage.  The conference’s prowess has gotten the attention of the nation, as a record eight teams were ranked in the top 25 of the TSN/Fathead.com FCS poll earlier this week.

It is arguable that the top of the Southern Conference is better than the top of the CAA, but the Colonial’s depth makes it a tougher conference top-to-bottom.  Towson head coach Rob Ambrose noted earlier this week that his Tigers face top 25 teams in each of its next six games.  So with all CAA teams but UMass done with their OOC schedules, it’s time for them to beat up on each other.  Who will come out victorious this week?

In the lone OOC game this week, Massachusetts takes on Central Connecticut State University this weekend.  At 2-2 the Minutemen come into the game having lost their last two games, against Boston College and Old Dominion.  The Blue Devils themselves have only two wins, having beaten one-win Wagner and Division 2 Southern Connecticut State.  UMass running back Jonathan Hernandez leads the CAA with 519 rushing yards through just four games, and Preseason All-CAA Defensive POY has picked up his play the last two weeks.  Massachusetts should be able to take this game at home.

It’s difficult to call one game the “CAA Game of the Week” because they all feature great matchups between talented teams.  But the game with the most on the line is William and Mary against Delaware.  The teams are in a shockingly similar position – they’re 3-2 with one loss to FBS teams, one conference loss and one victory against a Division 2 team.  The loser of this game will have to win the remainder of its schedule to reach the magical seven-FCS-win mark to be considered for the playoffs.

While the Tribe’s defense has played as well as expected, the offense struggled at quarterback.  The last two games, third stringer Michael Graham had gotten the offense into a rhythm but it was announced that he will miss this game with an illness.  Meanwhile Delaware surrendered 17 points in the fourth quarter to Pushuan Brown and the Maine Black Bears, losing 31-17.  While Jonathan Grimes remains the focal point of W&M’s offense, there is too much to overcome this weekend – a team with a consistent offense, an angry team coming off a loss, and the Blue Hens’ home field advantage.

After defeating Delaware at home last week, Maine travels to James Madison to take on the Dukes.  Last week JMU held the explosive Richmond offense to one touchdown drive of three yards…and that was it.  The Spiders had negative twelve yards rushing!  This Dukes team is doing something special on defense, and it’s going to need another similar output to take down the Black Bears.

Pushuan Brown was named the CAA’s Offensive POW following his 193-yard, three-touchdown performance against Delaware.  The Hens themselves have a pretty good defense but Brown was too much for them.  Brown has had at least 100 yards rushing every game except the team’s game against the University of Pittsburgh.  (Insert Big East comment here.)  But this Dukes’ defense stacks up even against that of the Panthers.  Brown may very well get his share of yards, but he hasn’t faced a defense like James Madison’s.  Even if Dae’Quan Scott can’t go with a shoulder injury, JMU’s running game and defense will come away with the win.

Maine’s brother from the old Yankee Conference, New Hampshire, hosts the Villanova Wildcats this Saturday.  Redshirt senior quarterback Kevin Decker has absolutely exploded this season, throwing for more than 1,000 yards in only four games with ten passing touchdowns and five more on the ground.  While Decker has solidified the quarterback position for the Wildcats, Villanova has struggled to replace four-year starter Chris Whitney.

Whitney led the Wildcats to the 2009 FCS national title and the semi-final round last season.  In 2011 redshirt freshman Dustin Thomas was expected to take control of the team, but he was injured in the second game against Towson.  Fellow freshman Marlon Calbi was ineffective in his lone start, so the team has turned to senior Christian Culicerto.  The shuffling at the position has resulted in Nova ranking last in the CAA in points and total yards.  Expect Decker to lead UNH to a win in this battle of the Wildcats.

Speaking of Towson, the biggest surprise of the conference to date, the Tigers host the Richmond Spiders this weekend.  Both teams suffered losses last week – Towson played Maryland tough but fell apart late, while Richmond took one on the chin from James Madison.  Richmond star wideout Tre Gray averaged 8.5 catches per game prior to last weekend, but the Dukes held him to only four receptions for 38 yards.  Despite beating down the Terrapins the first half, Towson scored only one field goal and wound up losing 28-3.

This game is the hardest to handicap this weekend.  Towson’s sophomore quarterback Grant Enders missed last week’s game with migraines, and his status is not currently known.  The Tigers offense has run as smoothly as possible with Enders at the helm but struggled to score against Maryland last weekend.  In order to win, the Tigers will have to take advantage of the Spiders’ injury-plagued defensive line and do what they do best – run the football.  Still, Richmond comes into the game hungrier and angry after getting stuffed last week.  It says here that Aaron Corp is able to find Tre Gray again and Richmond escapes with a close victory.

In the last game to preview, Old Dominion University takes its first top 25 ranking into Kingston to battle the Rhode Island Rams.  For the first time in the program’s brief history, a quarterback other than Thomas DeMarco will start for ODU after he suffered an ankle injury last week against UMass.  Freshman Taylor Heinicke relieved DeMarco in the second half and threw two touchdowns to help the Monarchs come from behind for the win.  The defense also came alive in the fourth quarter to help secure the win.

Rhode Island may only be 1-3 but it has had its chances to do better.  They were tied in the fourth quarter with Syracuse (insert second Big East comment here) before losing, and were defeating UMass on the road before giving up 20 fourth-quarter points to lose.  Senior quarterback Steve Probst, who leads the team in both passing and rushing yards, is third in the conference with 233 yards of offense per game.  The Rams’ best chance to win is to attack Heinicke at the line of scrimmage, as he is making his first collegiate start on the road.  But the Monarchs’ defensive line will be the key to the game and allow the Monarchs to get their second consecutive conference win.

In summary we’re going with Delaware, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Old Dominion.  Last week we were 2-2 and are now 6-3 on the season for conference games.  It won’t be surprising if we’re 0-4 with this week’s picks, since conference play is in full swing, and it’s tough to predict games against talented, evenly-matched teams.

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