Saturday’s Chalkboard: Pac-12 Match-Ups

Oregon’s march to the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game appears to be an inevitability. What happens in the South though is anyone’s guess. The conference’s de facto title game happens Saturday in Eugene when the Ducks face ineligible USC. Arizona State, Utah and UCLA remain in the hunt to be a sacrificial lamb, but all need victories this weekend. None are guaranteed one.

Washington at Oregon State

WASHINGTON: Force turnovers

Oregon State has been one of the worst teams in the Bowl Subdivision in turnover differential, ranking No. 100 overall. The Beavers are on a three-game skid leading into this match-up, failing to exceed 13 points in that stretch. A big reason is the Beavers’ inability to hold onto the ball. UW is exactly even with opponents in giveaways-takeaways. Pressuring Sean Mannion into bad throws will tip that scale to the positive for Nick Holt’s defense.

OREGON STATE: Make this game about Nick Montana

What has made Washington successful is its ability to attack defenses with equal parts run and pass. Keith Price’s injury forces unproven Nick Montana under center. He lines up with the supremely talented Chris Polk in the backfield alongside him, but OSU must stack its box and eliminate Polk’s opportunities. Undoubtedly, Polk will have his number called frequently. If the Beavers limit Polk’s production, it forces the game into Montana’s hands.

FACTOID: Oregon State’s second consecutive losing season marks just the second time in Mike Riley’s career his teams have missed bowls in back-to-back years.

Utah at Washington State

UTAH: Blackjack!

A player goes bust if he exceeds 21 in blackjack. Such is the case for Utah football. In the Utes’ six wins, no team has scored more than 21 points. Washington State is a high point potential offense akin to the Arizona squad Utah bested two weeks ago. The Utes won that contest by forcing turnovers (two interceptions of Nick Foles) and winning the special teams battle (two blocked punts).

WASHINGTON STATE: Go on Halliday

Marshall Lobbestael, Jeff Tuel, now Connor Halliday — Washington State’s been at its best when employing a potent passing offense. The Cougars’ bowl resuscitating defeat of Arizona State was the result of Halliday winging the ball around the field at a record-setting pace. It greatly benefits Wazzu that Utah has been most prone to giving up big passing plays in its losses.

FACTOID: Represented in this game is the Pac-12 member with the longest consecutive bowl streak, Utah at eight; and the longest bowl drought, which is Wazzu’s seven-year run.

Colorado at UCLA

COLORADO: Force Kevin Prince out of his comfort zone

UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince is most effective when he sets up the pass via the rush. Prince threw for nearly 200 yards and no turnovers against Arizona State — Utah forced him to throw 24 times (about eight more than Rick Neuheisel typically likes) and intercepted him twice. Colorado’s defense has struggled to muster much of anything, but if it can keep the Bruins’ rushes short, particularly Prince’s, it will force him to pass. That only works to CU’s advantage.

UCLA: Play with confidence

The Bruins are a difficult team to get a beat on. In wins over Washington State and Arizona State, UCLA has defended well and run its ground-based offense with efficiency. The passing has come from successful employment of the rush, and things just clicked. But then UCLA has had games like Arizona and Utah when it was completely overmatched and seemingly threw in the towel like Arnold Skaaland. The Bruins must show poise early and play with passion to reach bowl eligibility. UCLA is the better team, it just needs to act like it.

FACTOID: Colorado head coach Jon Embree’s son, Taylor, is a wide receiver at UCLA. Prepare to hear this roughly 5,000 times during tomorrow’s broadcast.

USC at Oregon

USC: Test the UO secondary often

As the season’s progressed, it’s increasingly difficult to argue that USC doesn’t have the best receiving corps in the nation. Robert Woods is a phenomenal No. 1 target, and Marqise Lee is hardly a downgrade as Matt Barkley’s second receiver. Opponents have been successful throwing for many yards on the Duck secondary (nearly 2400 yards total) — Cliff Harris’s absence (and lack of presence when available) has been evident. Even with two interceptions last week against Stanford, UO is vulnerable in this facet of its game and the Trojan receivers won’t suffer the same clangs as Stanford’s receiving corps.

OREGON: Force the tempo

This is an obvious game point, but it’s the most important facet of what Oregon does under Chip Kelly. The Ducks have a way of forcing opponents to panic, which leads to mistakes. UO is adept at converting errors into points, and the more points scored, the greater opponents’ desperation becomes.

FACTOID: Since losing to LSU in Week 1, Oregon has scored fewer than 41 points only one time (34 against Washington two weeks ago). Only Oklahoma State and Houston have been more prolific.

Arizona at Arizona State

ARIZONA: Dominate the ball

Arizona State is on a two-game losing skid, and most telling in the Sun Devils’ defeats to Washington State and UCLA is that both had possession nearly five minutes longer. An offense like Arizona’s isn’t condusive to long, clock-consuming drives — UA ranks No. 83 in time of possession due to its porous rush defense and inability to establish a consistent run of its own. However, the Wildcats must find ways to get Keola Antolin and Ka’Deem Carey going early. Otherwise, the Territorial Cup will spend another year in Tempe.

ARIZONA STATE: Get ahead early

In its losses to *deep breath*: Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, Oregon State, USC and Utah, Arizona fell behind by double digits early. In all but the Okie State and oddly Colorado contests, UA battled back to within single digits in the second but the deficits proved insurmountable. For all intents and purposes, UA is a second half team. The key to defeating the Wildcats is putting it in a hole too deep to escape. A Jamal Miles kick return would certainly bolster that effort.

FACTOID: Arizona and Arizona State have met in the annual Duel in the Desert 84 times previously. UA leads the series, 46-37-1. Last year’s double-OT encounter was the first to go extra frames.

Cal at Stanford

CAL: Grind the tempo to a halt

Cal’s offense is not particularly good. The Golden Bears have been best when forcing opponents into slowed down, somewhat ugly contests. Andrew Luck can put points on the board, so Cal’s best hope is to keep it away from him as long as possible. Isi Sofele should get the lion’s share of duty and the passing playbook should be largely scrapped save for short slants.

STANFORD: Blitz the Bears

Zach Maynard is prone to poor decisions, especially when pressured. Stanford’s an effective blitzing team. Expect Chase Thomas coming through on numerous high pressure defensive calls, and the Cardinal to take advantage of forced passes.

FACTOID: The Big Game is the oldest of the Pacific rivalries, dating back to 1892. Jeff Tedford is 7-2 against Stanford since becoming Cal’s head coach in 2002.