On Mountain High: Final Week of the Regular Season…Already?!

It’s December 2. Already?! Dang, I can’t believe this is the last week of the regular season. While the Mountain West and Big 12 are playing the final slate of conference games, other conferences like the C-USA, Pac 12 and Big 10 are crowning conference champions.

If this were 2012, the Mountain-USA faction would be showcasing conference champions in a battle for an assumed BCS berth. In the Mountain West, TCU is hoping to climb high enough in the ranks to garner an at-large BCS bid. In the Horned Frogs way, however, is Houston. With a win in the C-USA championship, the Cougars would be guaranteed a berth in a BCS bowl.

Regardless of how high TCU can climb after a win Saturday or whether Boise State gets an at-large BCS berth, the Mountain West conference stands to be well-represented during Bowl Season. This marks the seventh consecutive year the conference has had five bowl-eligible teams, all of which are in action on the final weekend of the regular season.

Before we delve into where each team projects to play in the bowl games – nothing has been decided yet – let’s focus on this week’s matchups and what is at stake for the teams involved.

Wyoming at Colorado State (+6)
Pick: In 1968, the Cowboys and Rams introduced the Bronze Boot into a rivalry known as the Border War. Since then, Wyoming holds only a 22-21 edge in a game which dates back more than 100 years. This year, Wyoming is headed toward a bowl game while Colorado State is hoping to avoid another 3-9 season.

After four weeks of the season, both teams held identical 3-1 records and both appeared destined for bowl eligibility. Since then, Colorado State has lost seven-in-a-row and a once-promising season could be the last for the Rams’ head coach. Steve Fairchild has lost two straight to Wyoming and with another loss, it will be the second time in four years that the Rams have finished the season on a losing streak of at least eight games. In 2009, Colorado State started 3-0 but then lost nine-straight to close the season.

Saturday’s matchup will feature a pair of true-freshman quarterbacks in Wyoming’s Brett Smith and Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson. It will be the play of each team’s running game that will be the difference though. CSU’s Chris Nwoke has burst onto the scene recently as one of the top running backs in the Mountain West. Since taking over as the starting running back after six games, Nwoke has rushed for 810 yards in the last five games. He has twice eclipsed the 200-yard mark, including a career-best 269 yards last week against Air Force – it was the third-highest single-game total in CSU history. The sophomore running back has secured at least the 10th-best rushing season in Ram history and with another big game, he could climb as high as fifth if he hits the 200-yard mark once more.

Defensively, Wyoming is going to have a tough time stopping Nwoke as they haven’t had much success stopping the run this year. Seven times this year Wyoming has allowed a rusher to surpass 100 yards and they are only 4-3 in those games. Offensively, Wyoming will clearly need to rely on Smith to have a good game. The true freshman leads the Cowboys in rushing with 679 yards and is ranked ninth all-time in total offense for a Wyoming quarterback. If he can rack up a combined 348 yards, a feat he’s accomplished twice this season, he will move into fourth-place all time with a bowl game left to play. Even if he can get to 260 yards, his season average per game, he’ll move up to fifth.

Nwoke and Smith are clearly the offensive players to watch in this contest and they should be the focus of each team’s defense. The winner in the 103rd Border War will be the team who better prepares to stop their opponents star. In this case, I see that team being Wyoming and I see this loss costing Steve Fairchild his job.

Wyoming wins/covers 31-24

UNLV at TCU (-38.5)
Pick:At this point there’s not much that can salvage UNLV’s season. In Bobby Hauck’s second year rebuilding, his Rebels have won just two games, against Hawaii on September 17 and against Colorado State on October 29. They became New Mexico’s first and only win a couple weeks ago and, with the exception of New Mexico, they’ve allowed at least 31 points per game to their opponents and have only surpasses 21 points once – scoring 38 against CSU. Actually, after listing off all that, I guess a win against TCU would be a step in the right direction. Can you build momentum heading into the off-season?

It’s not all bad for UNLV though. Clearly in rebuilding mode, the Rebels have a young team that should improve as Hauck’s tenure lengthens. There are 35 freshman, both red-shirt and true, on the Rebel roster and only 15 seniors. They do lose seven three-year lettermen, but none of those players were Hauck recruits. Statistically, UNLV’s top three running backs, sophomore Tim Cornett, true freshman Dionza Bradford and sophomore Bradley Randle will all return and the battle for the starting position should be fierce. The trio has combined for 1726 yards this season and 12 touchdowns. The Rebels desperately need a quarterback however as sophomore Caleb Herring, 1004 yards on just 54 percent completions, cannot be relied on to carry this team to a bowl game within the next two years. A competitive game Saturday could do wonders for Hauck’s recruiting efforts.

Against TCU, a competitive game could be defined as losing by fewer than 30 points. In four meetings in Fort Worth, UNLV has lost by at least 30 points and this year UNLV is the third-worst scoring defense in the FBS, allowing 39 points per game – TCU averages 40.36 offensively.

TCU, 18th in the most recent BCS rankings, has had a season that has been disappointing at times yet also filled with success. Guaranteed at least a share of the Mountain West title, a win over UNLV would give the Horned Frogs a third-straight conference title and a third-straight season undefeated in conference play. Like CM Punk at Money in the Bank, the Horned Frogs are poised to leave the Mountain West as defending champions and riding a 24-game unbeaten streak in conference play. If they can jump two spots in the standings and finish in the top-16, they would qualify for an at-large bid into a BCS Bowl… so long as a BCS bowl is willing to select them.

TCU’s success this season is due in large part to the play of quarterback Casey Pachall. After the departure of Andy Dalton to the NFL, the sophomore quarterback took over having thrown only nine passes during his redshirt freshman year. He has been outstanding for the Horned Frogs this year and will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12 next year. This year, Pachall is completing 67 percent of his passes and is averaging 230 yards per game with a total of 2,530 yards and 24 touchdowns. He’s thrown just six interceptions this year and against Boise State a couple weeks age he had a game for the ages with 473 yards, and five touchdowns to one interception.

I could delve deeper into the reasons TCU wins this game but I think it’s pretty obvious. Although UNLV has had success running the ball recently, the Horned Frogs allow less than 130 yards rushing per game. With UNLV’s inability to stop teams from scoring points in bunches, I don’t see TCU having much troubls winning this game and covering the spread. The win will give TCU it’s fourth-straight season with at least 10 wins and eighth time in last 10 seasons under Patterson.

TCU wins/covers 49-10

New Mexico at Boise State (-48.5)
Pick: Does this game really have to take place? Is there anything of value for either team? Boise State gets one more shot to work out the frustration of another season not playing for the BCS title and New Mexico gets one last chance to get a second victory. Only twice this season, however, have the Lobos prevented an opponent from scoring 31 or more points and that doesn’t bode well for their chances against Boise.

For most teams, an 11-1 record and a top-10 BCS ranking would be a stellar season. For Boise State, it’s just another reminder that this non-automatic qualifying team is not good enough to compete for a national championship. Kellen Moore, the NCAA’s winningest quarterback, takes the field at Bronco Stadium for the final time and that doesn’t bode well for New Mexico’s chances at ending a 20-game road losing streak. With a win, Boise should do enough to get an at-large berth to a BCS game. Although they won’t be conference champions and Houston will most likely get the automatic non-AQ bid, Boise would still finish the season ranked in the top-7 which should be enough.

After the hiring of former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie, the future of of the Lobo program is a bit brighter , but until he takes over after season’s end, New Mexico will most likely log its third-straight 1-11 season. On offense, the Lobos are a complete mess. Their top running back is a guy named Crusoe Gongbay who has 496 yards on 101 carrier. I might be mistaken but I don’t see a Gongbay for Heisman campaign starting any time soon. Gongbay is the only Lobo with more than 300 yards rushing and it’s not like quarterback B.R. Holbrook has done much better under center. Although he’s completing 60 percent of his passes, he’s only totaled 1345 yards and four touchdowns. The one bright spot has been true freshman Deon Long who has hauled in 39 catches for 713 yards and four touchdowns.

Boise’s offense is quite a different story. They have the top offense in the Mountain West averaging 474 yards and 43 points per game. While Moore is the star and the main attraction on this squad, the offensive output has not been relegated to just a passing attack – which averages 302 yards per game. With Doug Martin leading the rushing attack, the Broncos average 174 yards per game on the ground. After losing its top two receivers from a year ago, Tyler Shoemaker and Matt Miller have stepped up and filled that void. Shoemaker has been outstanding with 853 yards and 14 touchdowns on 52 catches. With so much offense and a poor opposing defense, this game will be over by the time the clock runs out on the first quarter.

Boise wins/doesn’t cover 45-0

Fresno State at San Diego State (-8)
Pick: Until next year when Fresno joins the Mountain West, San Diego State is the only California team in the conference. Although the Aztecs haven’t had a solidified “rival” since the Mountain West began in 1999, the Bulldogs of Fresno are the closest the Aztecs can come to a rivalry. SDSU has played Fresno 50 times, more than any other team in SDSU history and once both are back in the same conference a full-fledged rivalry game should be established.

This year’s game features two of the countries best running backs in SDSU’s Ronnie Hillmand and Fresno’s Robbie Rouse – a former San Diego high school star. Hillman is the fourth-best rusher in the coutry with 134.4 yards per game and Rouse is right behind him, sort of, at 8th overall with 124.4 yards per game. I’d expect both teams to heavily rely on the running game and if Hillman is fully healthy I expect him to have the most success.

SDSU quarterback Ryan Lindley, statistically the best in Mountain West history, takes the field at Qualcomm Stadium for the final time and I’d expect him to put on one last big show for the home-town fans. He was a first-round NFL draft prospect at the beginning of the season and while his stock has dropped during the season, a big output this week would help elevate his status heading toward bowl season, senior all-star games and, eventually, the NFL draft.

Regardless how the season ends, it will be a somewhat successful campaign for the Aztecs. SDSU has clinched back-to-back winning season for the first time since 1995 and 1996 and have won four road games for the first time since 1986. They will also go to a bowl game in back-to-back seasons, the first time that feat has been accomplished in team history. A win would complete a second-straight 8-4 season and could result in a bid to play in the Poinsettia Bowl, giving the 21 seniors honored tomorrow night one last chance to play and win in front of a home crowd.

San Diego State wins/doesn’t cover 27-24