2012 Pac-12 Schedule Released: Stagnant Rotation

The Pacific 12 Conference released its 2012 Wednesday. All non-conference slates are filled, so barring any unforeseen circumstances — like when San Jose State dropped its game with Arizona State in 2010, forcing the Sun Devils to add Portland State — this is the complete docket for the year.

What immediately jumped out at me was that cross-division match-ups that did not occur in 2011, will not be played in 2012 either. When the Pac expanded to 12 teams, the decision to maintain a nine-game league slate was rendered. Right call. That’s five divisional contests, and four inter-divisional. Logic would dictate Team X plays its five games in the division, then the rotation for the remaining four goes as follows:

Year One: Team X plays at A, vs B, at C, vs D

Year Two: Team X plays Teams vs E, at F, vs A, at B

Year Three: Team X plays Teams vs C, at D, at E, vs F

Year Four: Team X plays Teams at A, vs B, at C, vs D thus bringing the rotation full circle. Furthermore, an incoming freshman will have played at every conference venue, including those outside his division.

But that’s not the case. The Year One slate just repeats, the only difference is that home games from 2011 are now on the road in 2012, and vice versa. To help make better sense of this, let’s use Arizona as an example. The Wildcats played at Washington, at Oregon State, vs. Oregon and vs. Stanford in 2011. UA draws those same four squads, only at the opposite venue. That means for two straight seasons, UA and Cal/Washington State won’t see each other. That makes zero sense.

To further compound the shock, the Pac last used a rotating system in 2005. That was the last season with an 11-game schedule, and thus the last time the then-Pac-10 played eight games. Each team had to miss someone. In ’05, UA missed Washington State. That makes three straight times on a rotating scale Arizona and Wazzu have not played. They might as well be in separate conferences at that point.

I would love to know the determining process. But in the meantime, here’s the breakdown:

ARIZONA

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
85-55 (47-35 Pac-12)

Despite the strong overall record featuring three BCS bowl teams, Arizona does garner some favor. It avoids consecutive road games and plays away from Arizona Stadium just four times all season. All four are in conference. The opening stretch is brutal, though, and a tough start is what did in this past year’s team. The combined record of three of UA’s first four opponents in 2011 is 34-6.

9/1: vs. Toledo
9/8: vs. Oklahoma State
9/15: vs. South Carolina State
9/22: @ Oregon
9/29: vs. Oregon State
10/6: @ Stanford
10/20: vs. Washington
10/27: vs. USC
11/3: @ UCLA
11/10: vs. Colorado
11/17: @ Utah
11/23 (Fri.): vs. Arizona State

ARIZONA STATE

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
72-68 (38-45 Pac-12)

Arizona State plays a lukewarm schedule by virtue of missing both Washington and Stanford from the North. The Sun Devils’ opening stretch isn’t much fun, though. After its every-other-year-, state mandated affair with Northern Arizona, ASU draws four straight bowl teams, three of which won their game.

9/1: vs. Northern Arizona
9/8: vs. Illinois
9/15: @ Missouri
9/22: vs. Utah
9/29: @ Cal
10/11 (Thurs.): @ Colorado
10/18 (Thurs.): vs. Oregon
10/27: vs. UCLA
11/3: @ Oregon State
11/10: @ USC
11/17: vs. Washington State
11/23 (Fri.): @ Arizona

CAL

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
84-60 (49-36 Pac-12)

The most obvious thing is the Big Game coming on Oct. 20. Terrible. The Golden Bears play a challenging slate, particularly as one of the North teams to draw USC. Furthermore, they get the Trojans immediately after playing Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.

9/1: vs. Nevada
9/8: vs. Southern Utah
9/15: @ Ohio State
9/22: @ USC
9/29: vs. Arizona State
10/6: vs. UCLA
10/13: @ Washington State
10/20: vs. Stanford (#smh)
10/27: @ Utah
11/2 (Fri): vs. Washington
11/10: vs. Oregon
11/17: @ Oregon State

COLORADO

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
75-64 (46-37 Pac-12)
* FCS opponent beat a Pac-12 member in 2011

The Buffaloes begin their second season on something of an uptick. CU got both its conference wins in the season’s final month, and opens with a manageable enough slate. The Buffs should be 3-0 by the time they travel to Pullman to meet Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars. Coming out of the first half of the season relatively unscathed is the only chance CU has for this not to be an extremely long year: after hosting ASU on a Thursday night, CU goes to USC and Oregon in consecutive weeks, then returns home for Stanford. The Cardinal may not be the same juggernaut it was this year, losing Andrew Luck and David DeCastro/Jonathan Martin from the line. But Stanford should remain a force to be reckoned with.

9/1: vs. Colorado State (in Denver)
9/8: vs. Sacramento State*
9/15: @ Fresno State
9/22: @ Washington State
9/29: vs. UCLA
10/11 (Thurs.): vs. Arizona State
10/20: @ USC
10/27: @ Oregon
11/3: vs. Stanford
11/10: @ Arizona
11/17: vs. Washington
11/23 (Fri.): vs. Utah

OREGON

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
69-68 (37-44 Pac-12)

Three-time defending conference champion Oregon doesn’t leave the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium until Week 5, but pays the price in November. The Ducks are away from home three times in the final month, including a possible Championship Game preview at USC. Cal the following week is a definite trap game. In terms of 2011 record, UO plays one of the weaker all-around schedules and a decidedly favorable league slate.

9/1: vs. Arkansas State
9/8: vs. Fresno State
9/15: vs. Tennessee Tech
9/22: vs. Arizona
9/29: @ Washington State
10/6: vs. Washington
10/18 (Thurs.): @ Arizona State
10/27: vs. Colorado
11/3: @ USC
11/10: @ Cal
11/17: vs. Stanford
11/24: @ Oregon State

OREGON STATE

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
86-58 (43-40 Pac-12)

A daunting schedule has long been a trademark of Mike Riley-coached teams, and in 2012, the Beavers draw four teams coming off 10-plus win seasons (Wisconsin, BYU, Oregon and Stanford). That doesn’t bode well for a program desperately seeking to snap a bowl-less skid. The Beavs have the added misfortune of opening conference play against beatable foes UCLA and Arizona on the road.

9/1: vs. Nicholls State
9/8: vs. Wisconsin
9/22: @ UCLA
9/29: @ Arizona
10/6: vs. Washington State
10/13: @ BYU
10/20: vs. Utah
10/27: @ Washington
11/3: vs. Arizona State
11/10: @ Stanford
11/17: vs. Cal
11/24: vs. Oregon

STANFORD

2011 Composite Record
72-80 (39-44 Pac-12)

The post-Luck era begins with a pair of non-conference games that should allow David Shaw’s team to get settled in, but once things get cracking in Week 3, they really get cracking. The Cardinal face a brutal stretch starting with USC, three road games out of four, and a it gets just one home game in November.

9/1: vs. San Jose State
9/8: vs. Duke
9/15: vs. USC
9/27 (Thurs.): @ Washington
10/6: vs. Arizona
10/13: @ Notre Dame
10/20: @ Cal
10/27: vs. Washington State
11/3: @ Colorado
11/10: vs. Oregon State
11/17: @ Oregon
11/24: @ UCLA

UCLA

2011 Composite Record
82-70 (36-45)

UCLA benefits from starting with a very manageable stretch in conference, at least based off 2011 records. The first Pac-12 foe the Bruins see that finished this past campaign above .500 in the league is USC in the penultimate weekend.

9/1: @ Rice
9/8: vs. Nebraska
9/15: vs. Houston
9/22: vs. Oregon State
9/29: @ Colorado
10/6: @ Cal
10/13: vs. Utah
10/27: @ Arizona State
11/3: vs. Arizona
11/10: @ Washington State
11/17: vs. USC
11/24: vs. Stanford

USC

2011 Composite Record
82-74 (43-38)

Big expectations return to Tinsel Town, where USC is after not only another Pac-12 title, but the national championship. The Trojans benefit from not leaving Los Angeles County at all come November. Dates with Oregon and Notre Dame loom large in that stretch. Don’t sleep on the Thursday night clash with Utah to kick-off October: such games have proving troublesome for the Men of Troy in recent years.

9/1: vs. Hawai’i
9/8: vs. Syracuse (in East Rutherford, N.J.)
9/15: @ Stanford
9/22: vs. Cal
10/4 (Thurs.): @ Utah
10/13: @ Washington
10/20: vs. Colorado
10/27: @ Arizona
11/3: vs. Oregon
11/10: vs. Arizona State
11/17: @ UCLA
11/24: vs. Notre Dame

UTAH

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
67-73 (34-49)

The Utes have the most manageable schedule in the South, if not the entire conference by virtue of avoiding both Stanford and Oregon. That didn’t work out for UU this season, but after testing the Pac-12 waters, this is a team to watch as a dark horse divisional title candidate. Hosting USC early on a Thursday night is intriguing.

8/30 (Thurs.): vs. Northern Colorado
9/8: @ Utah State
9/15: vs. BYU
9/22: @ Arizona State
10/4 (Thurs.): vs. USC
10/13: @ UCLA
10/20: @ Oregon State
10/27: vs. Cal
11/3: vs. Washington State
11/10: @ Washington
11/17: vs. Arizona
11/23 (Fri.): @ Colorado

WASHINGTON

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponent
77-63 (40-43)

Half of Washington’s first six games are against BCS bowl qualifiers, and a fourth is against another double digit-win in USC. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Huskies is on the downslide of the schedule are four teams that finished with four wins or fewer this past season.

9/1: vs. San Diego State
9/8: @ LSU
9/15: vs. Portland State
9/27: vs. Stanford
10/6: @ Oregon
10/13: vs. USC
10/20: @ Arizona
10/27: vs. Oregon State
11/2 (Fri.): @ Cal
11/10: vs. Utah
11/17: @ Colorado
11/23 (Fri.): @ Washington State

WASHINGTON STATE

2011 Composite Record excluding FCS opponents
69-58 (44-39)

Mike Leach’s tenure begins in the location of his football roots. WSU traveling to BYU is an exciting opening week game before the Cougars play two FCS opponents. That means to bowl, the Cougars need seven wins. Such a mark has eluded this program since its last bowl. Leach will get them there, but Year 1 might be an uphill battle.

9/1: @ BYU
9/8: vs. Eastern Washington
9/15: vs. Portland State
9/22: vs. Colorado
9/29: vs. Oregon
10/6: @ Oregon State
10/13: vs. Cal
10/27: @ Stanford
11/3: @ Utah
11/10: vs. UCLA
11/17: @ Arizona State
11/23 (Fri.): vs. Washington