What If: GJ Kinne Did Not Leave Texas?

G.J. Kinne committed to Texas in 2007, the culmination of an exemplory prep career that included All-America and Texas 3A Offensive Player of the Year honors. When Kinne arrived in Austin, UT had a quarterback entering his second season as starter. That quarterback who would go on to carve his name in Longhorn history as one of the program greats.

Replacing Colt McCoy would be a virtually impossible task — the musical chairs Mack Brown has played at starting quarterback since McCoy’s departure is evidence of that.

But had Kinne not transferred to Tulsa before the 2008 campaign, would he have found more success than the triumvirate of Garrett Gilbert, Case McCoy and David Ash? And with Kinne behind center, could Texas have avoided a pair of seasons not up to par with the program’s lofty standards?

SaturdayBlitz.com asked one of the blogosphere’s most insightful Texas Longhorn bloggers, Scipio Tex of BarkingCarnival.com:

What if G.J. Kinne had stayed at UT?

The most glaring problem UT faced in 5-7 and 8-5 2010 and 2011 seasons was inconsistent quarterback play. Gilbert’s ascension to the throne began prematurely, when McCoy went down with a rib injury during the 2010 BCS Championship game. Perhaps the pressure of spelling a legend in the biggest game of the year was too much for Gilbert. Maybe he wasn’t ready to live up to the lofty expectations heaped on him as the 2008 Gatorade Prep Player of the Year. Or maybe, it’s as simple as Gilbert just not being that good.

Whatever the reason, the Lake Travis High product was not ready to be the heir apparent. He threw just 10 touchdowns in ’10, but surrendered 17 interceptions. Despite his struggles with accuracy, Brown stuck with him throughout the campaign.

“The Texas coaching staff was so emotionally and strategically invested in Gilbert panning out as a recruit that Kinne would have had no chance to start in 2010, irrespective of Gilbert’s on-field performance or Kinne’s potential.” Scipio Tex said. “They engineered the depth chart precisely so that Gilbert would receive a coronation.”

Last week’s National Signing Day stressed the importance of star ratings in the recruiting process. Four and five star targets are called blue chips because of their high value. The greater the value, the more of an investment required in recruiting, and thus in cultivating them after they’ve signed on the dotted line.

Gilbert was a five star recruit, the rarest of prep talents. He was rated ahead of such notables as Aaron Murray, Tajh Boyd, and AJ McCarron. Only USC’s Matt Barkley was more highly regarded than Gilbert.

On Kinne’s Tulsa athletics bio, he lists Varsity Blues as his favorite movie. The high praise Gilbert brought with him to Austin made him a real life Lance Harbor — and that would leave the less celebrated Kinne as Gilbert’s Jonathan Moxon.

However, Moxon eventually got his shot, and the West Kanaan Coyotes rolled. Could UT have righted the ship amid the 2010 nosedive with a suitable reserve behind Gilbert?

“Perhaps it could be argued that we would have seen Kinne come in during Gilbert’s [Kansas State] meltdown,” Scipio Tex said, pointing out that such an appearance may have been mere “spot duty.”

The K-State game saw Gilbert rush for 93 yards and pass for 272 and a touchdown — he also threw five interceptions, and the Wildcats built a 39-0 lead before winning, 39-14. KSU would go 6-6 and play in the Pinstripe Bowl, while UT stayed home for the postseason.

Had a Kinne appearance resulted in more than just spot duty, and UT picked up another victory in its final stretch, the Longhorns would have bowled. A Pinstripe Bowl appearance is hardly illustrious, but the extra practice time would pay dividends into 2011.

And maybe, just maybe, Mike Davis could have given Longhorn fans his rendition of the Tweeder End Zone Dance.

Come 2011, Scipio Tex says Kinne’s presence would have really been felt.

“Kinne would have been the starter by at least Game 2 and it would have likely resulted in two more regular season wins: against either KSU, Mizzou, or Oklahoma State and a pretty decent uptick in our offensive performance,” he said.

Manny Diaz guided one of the most impressive in college football, and it was enough to earn UT eight wins, including the Holiday Bowl. Case McCoy and Ash tag teamed quarterback duties after Gilbert’s final flameout, and the duo was effective enough for a 7-5 regular season. But between them, the Longhorns lacked firepower. Each was just over 1000 yards passing. Ash’s rushing ability added a new dimension, but he struggled with accuracy. McCoy was much less turnover prone, but lacked explosiveness.

Meanwhile in Tulsa, Kinne was continuing along a torrid pace. He guided the Golden Hurricane into the Top 25 in 2010, throwing 31 touchdowns and eclipsing 3600 yards passing. His 2011 encore was 28 touchdowns and a first down below 3100 yards. He faced a considerable talent disparity in Conference USA, and thrived in a run-and-gun system — the same kind of atmosphere Gilbert now hopes will resurrect his career at SMU, as soon as 2012.

But if Kinne could have mustered at a pace just slightly less than his showing at Tulsa, the entire dynamic of Texas’s offense changes.

“That would have meant a 9-3 regular season and a likely Cotton Bowl against Arkansas,” Scipio Tex said.