Dark Horse Diaries: The Likelihood Of A Title Game Sans SEC

Vince Young’s end zone scamper to topple USC in one of the greatest college football games ever played ended an era. Texas’s hoisting of the national championship trophy in January 2006 ended the first portion of the Bowl Championship Series’s existence. From 1998 through 2005, all six BCS conferences accounted for at least one title: SEC 2 (Tennessee ’98, LSU ’03); Big 12 2 (Oklahoma ’00, Texas ’05); Big East 1 (Miami ’01); ACC 1 (Florida State ’99); Big Ten 1 (Ohio State ’02); Pac-10 1 (USC ’04). No team won multiple BCS championships in that era of equity.

But since 2006, the Urbsableszik Dynasty emerged to form the sport’s One Percent. No one has been able to loosen the SEC’s stranglehold on the crystal ball, as the question is no longer which conference will hold it come January, but rather which Southeastern program. Last season set a new benchmark in SEC domination, marking the first title game to pit conference foes against one another.

Said dominance has resulted in something of a lethargy among football fans. Every story needs conflict: The Godfather would have been pretty short had Sollozzo heeded Don Corleone’s advice about drug peddling. Breaking Bad‘s run would have ended if Walter White got his treatment money from Walt Jr.’s donation website. Likewise, the lack of mystery college football’s finale has provided resulted in a disengaged audience.

Fret not, those West of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line. While the SEC is again home to the likely best teams in the nation, the 2012 season could be the SEC Dynasty doesn’t necessarily end, but at least loosens its grip.

A scenario in which any team outside of the SEC wins it all might seem far fetched. BetVega.com has some of the earliest betting odds for the 2012 season’s BCS champion, and right on top at 19/4 is LSU. Not far behind, sporting the third best odds overall is Alabama at 11/2. Add 14/1 Georgia and 20/1 Arkansas, and the conference has four of the top eight teams.

Of course, Las Vegas sets odds not necessarily on teams’ strength, but what will generate the most action. This is hardly a newsflash. However, the odds have provided some keen insight into the future in recent years. Alabama had the second best odds last preseason; national runner-up and almost wire-to-wire No. 1 LSU had the fourth best. In 2009, Nick Saban’s Tide were the best overall odds and produced; same for LSU in 2007 and Florida in 2008.

The lone deviation of Vegas foreseeing the hoisting of the crystal ball in its crystal ball was 2010, when Cam Newton burst onto the scene and led Auburn on an unprecedented run. Such a scenario is possible again this year, but that a long shot can emerge from the SEC into the BCS title game is further testament to the dynasty standing on quicksand.

The SEC is good. Maybe too good. A team I projected as a possible BCS title dark horse is Georgia. The Dawgs are a dark horse in the sense conference mates LSU and Alabama are so loaded, a scenario in which neither one wins the league title is difficultly conceived. Yet, UGa. boasts the seventh best title odds among 123 FBS teams.

UGa., South Carolina and Arkansas are all coming off double digit-win seasons. Newcomer Missouri is not garnering a whole lot of attention, yet the Tigers finished last season just outside of the Top 25. Fellow newcomer Texas A&M came 17 points from finishing 12-1 instead of 7-6.

The conference’s depth is its greatest asset for sharpening championship meddle, but that it hasn’t cannibalized its own in this six-year run is astounding. It’s almost happened twice, but Florida in 2008 and LSU in 2007 benefited from wild seasons in the rest of the conferences. Such a tight rope is difficult to traverse so routinely.

DeathValleyVoice.com‘s Buzz Breeden told me before January’s title game that the 2012 Tigers were the group LSU fans placed their hope for a championship on. That the 2011 squad produced a 13-0 season was a jump start on the expectations. A deep, veteran lineup that weathered the regular season storm a year ago should theoretically be able to do so again, especially with Alabama coming to Baton Rouge and the Tigers avoiding the usual tough, non-conference test.

However, LSU does travel to Arkansas in the season finale. The high powered Hogs discovered their defensive chops in time to manhandle Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl. Bobby Petrino returns Tyler Wilson, arguably the league’s top quarterback, and gets both LSU and Alabama at home. The possibility for upset potential looms large in each contest. In turn though, Arkansas travels to South Carolina late in the campaign.

The Gamecocks have one of the nastiest defenses in the nation, and return perhaps the toughest tailback in Marcus Lattimore. Not long after though, the Gamecocks go to reigning ACC champion Clemson’s home. Indeed, out-of-conference challenges could throw a monkey wrench in the works. Alabama has no cake walk path to its big dates with LSU and Arkansas; the Tide opens with Sugar Bowl champion Michigan.

Those dominoes fall and no SEC team rises unscathed, and any pair of the talented, title contenders around the nation go unbeaten — USC, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Florida State are some candidates — and the dynasty’s interrupted.

Really, there could be no greater dark horse scenario for the entire 2012 campaign.