Alabama, Wisconsin Begs Question: Will Scheduling for the Playoffs Lead to Cupcake Diets?
By Kyle Kensing
The limited availability of playoff berths once the new system commences come 2014 has some programs looking to gussy up their menus for postseason consideration. One philosophy is that which Wisconsin athletic director (and former Badger head football coach) Barry Alvarez apparently prefers: bolster the Strength of Schedule.
Said Alvarez to Andy Baggot of The Wisconsin State Journal
:
"If you want to be a player (in the national championship equation) and strength of schedule is going to be a part of it, then you really have to consider (a different approach)."
To that end, UW sought a match-up with Alabama. Such a home-and-home series would have fans and media salivating: Alabama, winner of two of the last three BCS championships; a program more indicative with the sport than perhaps any other. Wisconsin is no slouch itself, striving for a third straight Big Ten championship and top tier bowl game appearance. Consider such an offering a Fleming’s filet mignon.
Alabama would rather skip to the dessert menu. The Tide passed on UW’s offer, a move indicative of a much different mindset: wins are what win over critics.
Alabama’s out-of-conference scheduling has not been egregiously poor during Nick Saban’s tenure. His team played Big Ten opponent Penn State in Happy Valley last September. The Tide opens with reigning Sugar Bowl champion Michigan this season. In the season opener of the 2014 campaign, the first with the new playoff format, UA opens with West Virginia.
‘Bama has not shied from playing high profile opponents in the past, but it has also fattened up its win column with plenty of cupcakes.
Offsetting its trip to PSU, the Tide played teams from the Sun Belt (North Texas), Kent State (MAC) and FCS (Georgia Southern). That’s two opponents with exactly zero bowl appearances since 2004. And while GSU is a standard bearer in the FCS, it’s still FCS vs. SEC.
The remainder of ‘Bama’s non-conference slate for the coming season consists of two Sun Belt foes (Western Kentucky and FAU) and the usual Homecoming bodybag from the FCS (Western Carolina). The combined 2011 win total for those three teams is nine — seven for which WKU accounted.
Championship discussion begins and ends with the SEC, the epicenter of college football’s universe. SEC programs are given a pass for choosing pastries over red meat, because the conference is so rigorous. Yet, the combined conference record of UA foes in 2011 was well below .500.
Last season, the treacherous conference schedule narrative that is the SEC’s hallmark bolstered Alabama’s championship game case. Indeed, the Tide played two teams in the final top 10 regular season poll, Arkansas and LSU. But of its other six conference opponents, none finished above .500 in the league. That hardly registered a peep come December, because for the past half-decade or so it’s been accepted fact that navigating the SEC is all the measuring stick a championship contender needs.
Things happen. Florida was young and not as good as advertised in the pre-season. Defending national champion Auburn was also youthful and adjusted to life after Cam. Injuries hamstrung Tennessee, and Mississippi State failed to build on its strong finish to 2010. Conversely, Alabama’s nearest title game challenger Oklahoma State came out of a Big 12 Conference that finished much stronger than expected in the pre-season.
Baylor was not in the initial top 25, but became a top 10 winner behind its Heisman winning quarterback. Kansas State emerged from virtual oblivion to win 10 games. Even Iowa State, the team that shocked OSU and denied it the title game invite, far exceeded pundits’ expectations by making a bowl.
Overrating or underrating a conference based on pre-season perception is a flaw of the BCS, and the precedent ‘Bama’s “no thanks” to Wisconsin sets is it will be a flaw of the playoff system, too. Maybe Alabama will rethink this approach — UW certainly has. The Badgers have been guilty of visiting the bakery for some tasty cupcakes a time or two itself, last season playing a UNLV team that hasn’t been relevant since Randall Cunningham was
punting
quarterbacking, and just-barely-Division I South Dakota.
LSU is an interesting study in both philosophies as it pertains to the current landscape.
Les Miles’ Bayou Bengals traversed a veritable landmine last season, facing national runner-up Oregon on a neutral field in Week 1, then traveling to West Virginia later that same month. Both teams were eventual BCS bowl game winners. This season, LSU takes a much different approach. All four of LSU’s non-conference games are at home. Washington is a decent enough opponent, a representative from a power conference coming off a winning season. But the rest of the slate is comprised of UNT, Idaho and Towson: hardly a murderer’s row for a national championship contender.
What makes the 2012 LSU scheduling interesting is this season’s team is the one Tiger faithful had championship aspirations vested in. When I spoke to DeathValleyVoice.com lead editor Buzz Breeden before January’s BCS championship, he said the 2011 Tigers’ conference championship and title game appearance had the program a season ahead of schedule.
Were that the outlook when the Tigers’ schedule was formulated, it would suggest a methodical process of rocking the boat as little as possible for a legitimate title contender.
That said, LSU is playing a challenging conference schedule on paper. The Tigers travel to Auburn and Florida, both of which should be improved from 2011. LSU also heads to Texas A&M in the Aggies’ first SEC season. TAMU head coach Kevin Sumlin takes over a team that very well could have finished 2011 at 12-1. Alabama and Arkansas await for showdowns to determine SEC West supremacy, and a South Carolina squad looking for its third straight double digit-win campaign looms.
So maybe LSU can get a pass for treading lightly in the non-conference. But maybe various factors can impact its conference opponents to take some of the luster off what appears to be a daunting docket. We won’t know months out from each match-up, and we certainly cannot know years beforehand. Therein lies much of the challenge of schedule making, a reliance on assumption.
Applaud the UW approach of trying to take the bull by the horns, and turn it into filet mignon. I’ve always been more of a steak guy than cupcake eater.