Potential BCS Bowl Busters in 2012 Including Louisiana Tech, BYU, Ohio

For all the mathematics dictating Bowl Championship Series worthiness, the system has always had remainders, anomalies that left the computers spitting out syntax errors. It was true from the format’s inception, when Shaun King-led Tulane ran the table but was left out of the prestigious tier of bowl games. It remains true today, with non-automatic qualifier conference members being held to a higher standard for at-large participation than their Big Six counterparts.

Non-AQs have had greater success cracking the BCS since 2004, the first campaign such a program was invited. Beginning with Utah that year, seven teams from four schools outside of the BCS bubble have been invited it. Two of those four were able to parlay their success into BCS conference invitations.

There are programs that could sneak into one of the big five bowls in 2012, but no clear cut option like in years past. There are candidates more notable than others, however.

BOISE STATE

The Broncos have crashed two BCS bowls, but finished undefeated in four regular seasons. The last two seasons could have resulted in BCS bids, as well, given the Broncos’ losses were to two top 15 opponents. This is a program that, under Chris Petersen, knows how to reach the biggest stage.

• Schedule

BSU opens with its typically ambitious non-conference encounter. In 2009, it was Oregon. Virginia Tech was on the docket in 2010, and last season it was Georgia. Each of the Broncos’ last three season opening opponents won a double digit total of games, and the former two won their conferences to appear in the BCS. Michigan State is capable of extending that streak, and this is the first of those BSU opponents the Broncos are playing in a true road game (though the Va. Tech and Georgia games were in the backyard of each).

The Broncos play fellow potential BCS party crasher BYU in the first of what is going to become a fun, micro-rivalry over the next few seasons.

• Profile

No program is more synonymous with disrupting the Old Guard’s status quo quite like BSU. Since knocking off Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, BSU has been the darling of the non-AQs. This season is a question mark coming in because of the collective lack of experience on the roster. Still, if there’s anything Boise State has proven, it’s not to doubt it.

• Overall Outlook

This is a young, young team. There are aspects of the coming Bronco season that remind me of 2005. BSU was coming off a perfect regular season and had established national credibility, but opened the season with a trip to Georgia and were shellacked. Facing a strong MSU team in Week One is a tough initiation for a roster that will feature 18 new starters.

BYU

Brigham Young has been one of the most consistent programs in the last half-decade, winning 10-plus in five of the last six seasons. The Cougars have also been close to skipping the BCS turnstile, but could never quite produce a clean sheet.

• Schedule

BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe crafted an impressive schedule for the Cougars’ second season of independence (or half-an-impressive schedule, at the very least). BYU plays high profile games against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Boise State, in addition to extending its rivalry with Pac-12 dark horse contender Utah. That’s an outstanding schedule

• Profile

The last national champion from beyond the current Big Six’s sphere of influence was BYU in 1984. That’s hardly like talking Princeton’s 28 national titles, as the Cougars’ title came in most fans’ lifetime and during the modern era. Couple that with the consistency under Bronco Mendenhall, and BYU is certainly in the national consciousness. That goes a long way when it comes to garnering BCS favor.

• Overall Outlook

BYU roared through the final two-thirds of its 2011 slate to win 10 games and finish in the Coaches Top 25. This year’s Cougar team is better and more experienced than the last, but its daunting schedule should prove too cumbersome to navigate unscathed.

HOUSTON

An invitation to the Sugar Bowl was gift wrapped for Houston a season ago, but Southern Miss wrecked the party in the Conference USA championship game. That BCS bid that has always eluded C-USA remainded unattainable. Gone is record book incinerating quarterback Case Keenum, as well as head coach Kevin Sumlin.

• Schedule

The Cougars’ non-conference slate is not particularly daunting. UH initiates Texas State into the FBS in Week One, and fellow Lone Star-based program North Texas pays a visit later in the campaign. UH does travel to UCLA though, and the Bruins thumped the Cougars so badly in the Rose Bowl in 2010, it derailed the entirely season.

But the really big game on the UH non-conference docket is Week Two’s pairing with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs bring a very good team into Robertson Stadium for a showdown of two potential BCS busters.

In C-USA, UH travels to face three of the league’s potential bowl teams: Marshall, East Carolina and divisional rival SMU. UH avoids USM and UCF.

• Profile

Last season helped boost former Southwest Conference member Houston back into the national consciousness. The Cougars were, at one time, a nationally renowned bunch with a Heisman Trophy winner. Keenum conjured memories of Andre Ware, and the former’s void will prove difficult to fill. However, David Piland was the starter in Keenum’s injury-shortened 2010 so he has game experience and new head coach Tony Levine is not exactly a stranger to the air raid offense that powered Keenum and Co.

• Overall

UH has strung together some good seasons in the last half-decade, but the Cougars have always lost at least one game they shouldn’t. With a new coach and new quarterback, there are also new challenges — particularly early in the season.

That said, if the Cougars handle La. Tech and UCLA early, they are in great position for a late season showdown at SMU, as well as a second consecutive trip to the C-USA title game.