Danny O’Brien Named Starting Wisconsin QB and What It Means For Badger Offense

To the surprise of few, Bret Bielema named Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien Wisconsin’s starting quarterback on Monday. O’Brien transferred to UW in late March and immediately became front runner in the competition to fill the very big shoes Russell Wilson left in Madison.

The Badgers are defending consecutive Big Ten championships and pursuing a third straight Rose Bowl berth, if not a BCS title game run. But much of those aspirations depend on the production UW gets from O’Brien.

The 2010 Freshman All-America selection is not Russell Wilson, a point that has been made clear to the point of redundancy since O’Brien announced his transfer. Wilson came to UW after three seasons as NC State’s starter, accruing 76 passing touchdowns, another 17 via the rush and over 9500 total yards in his time there.

Wilson’s dual threat abilities added an unprecedented dimension to the Badger offense that resulted in a 44.1 point per game average, sixth best in the Bowl Subdivision. Before UW became All Russell Wilson Everything, it was a team reliant on a multifaceted, powerful and stereotpyically Big Ten rushing game. The best Badger quarterbacks were those who could manage the passing game effectively enough to keep defenses honest while big ball carriers like Ron Dayne, John Clay and PJ Hill.

And that’s precisely why O’Brien and the Badgers will be just fine, even if he’s not Wilson.

O’Brien is certainly more Scott Tolzien than Russell Wilson. He won’t present offensive coordinator Matt Canada the opportunity to spread the field with frequent shotgun sets. In fact, such change in the play calling at Maryland was central to O’Brien’s departure. He was steady in the Pro Set James Franklin and Ralph Friedgen employed in 2010, but was the square peg to the round hole that was Gary Crowton’s spread.

A signature of O’Brien’s Freshman All-America season was keeping his turnover numbers low. He had a nearly 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, comparable to Tolzien’s output in 2010. The senior Tolzien operated from a Pro Set and threw 16 touchdowns (less than O’Brien in 2010) with a little south of 2459 (20 more than O’Brien). Those are hardly eye popping numbers, yet the Badgers averaged 41.5 PPG with the approach.

Now, Tolzien was significantly more accurate than O’Brien, completing over 72 percent of his attempts during the Badgers’ Rose Bowl run. Improving on two seasons of completion percentages around 57 is crucial if UW is going to continue putting up the big points it has the last two seasons. Given the weapons around him, that isn’t too difficult a proposition.

The offense will start and finish with Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball, though perhaps overlooked is James White. In 2010, Ball more resembled the prototypical Badger running back: stout and hefty. White was the deviation from that norm before Ball dropped around 20 pounds. With the shedding of pounds came an increase in ball carries. That, and Wilson’s many talents, took opportunities from White, a near 1000-yard back in his own right.

It’s unlikely Canada will call on O’Brien to whip the ball around the field the nearly 400 times he passed his freshman campaign at UM. If it’s closer to Tolzien’s 266, that will mean more carries for White.

When O’Brien is passing, he’ll have proven targets in the speedy, long ball threat Jared Abbrederis. Abbrederis was good for 17 yards per reception a season ago. The perfect counter is tight end Jacob Pedersen, a physically imposing tight end coming off an eight touchdown campaign and a style that could emulate Aaron Hernandez. Add Ball’s receiving ability from the backfield, and O’Brien should be able to settle in nicely.

Asking him to replicate last season’s eight games of 40-plus points might be unrealistic, but don’t expect the Badgers to fall too far off the torrid pace established in recent years.