Preseason Bowlotology Part 1: Dec. 15-24
By Kyle Kensing
Welcome to Bowlotology, SaturdayBlitz.com’s postseason projection breakdown. The 2012 season is still more than a week away, but it’s hardly too early to look to the end of the season. Just don’t consider this a wish for the season to fly by.
New Mexico
San Diego State vs. Washington State
The college football watching world has its eyes on Pullman and new head coach Mike Leach. Paul Wulff got the Cougars on the cusp, and Leach is there to take them back to the postseason. Washington State has the longest bowl drought in the Pac-12 — its last appearance was the 2003 Holiday Bowl.
Jeff Tuel might be the third or even second best quarterback in the conference, particularly playing in Leach’s aerial attack. The Cougar defense is not particularly good, but the offense should prove prolific hunt to keep WSU in the hunt for six wins. Much of its hopes hinge on WSU’s Week 1 showing against BYU.
Conversely, San Diego State is on its sole bowl streak in program history and should build onto it in 2012. Though Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman both split for the NFL, new quarterback Ryan Katz has a talented receiving corps at his disposal. Rocky Long is also toying with the idea of not punting when inside the 50, or attempting field goals. That’s one way to combat Andy Ludwig’s blase play calling. The SDSU defense will be stout, a trademark of Long’s throughout his career. A pairing against WSU would make for a nice juxtaposition of styles.
Famous Idaho Potato
Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
Boise is the last refuge for the Western Athletic Conference, and as odds-on league favorite Louisiana Tech is slated to spend the holidays with this creepy thing. The Bulldogs are on my radar as potential BCS busters; we will know how legitimate that potential is immediately, with La. Tech hosting Texas A&M in Week 1. Should Tech not shock the world, it’s Idaho or bust.
Sonny Dykes’ high powered offense could see a worthy counter in Toledo, a team that averaged better than 40 points per game last season. Though Tim Beckman left for Illinois, Matt Campbell was coordinator of the Rockets’ explosive offensive side. Back is the talented quarterback tandem of Terrence Owens and Austin Dantin, sure to steer UT through plenty more MACtion classics.
Poinsettia
BYU vs. Nevada
BYU is guaranteed an invitation to San Diego should it reach bowl eligibility; it will. The Cougars tackle a daunting schedule that will make winning 10 games unlikely, but BYU being in the hunt for yet another double digit victory campaign come December isn’t impossible. Riley Nelson kick started the offense, providing a complement to a very good defense (No. 22 in points allowed last season).
Pairing the Cougar defense up against the Pistol offense Chris Ault has mastered in Reno would make for an intriguing clash. UNR had to replace Colin Kaepernick a season ago, and Cody Fajardo was the player picked to linger in that shadow. He’s unlikely to ever fully emerge beyond that reach, but the explosive rusher is perfectly suited to the offense.
Beef ‘o’ Bradys
Pitt vs. East Carolina
There exists a level of unknown to Pitt with Paul Chryst coming on from Wisconsin. His offenses in Madison were routinely among the nation’s best, ranking in the top 10 each of the last two seasons. And like at UW, Chryst can build around a talented running back in the returning Ray Graham. Tino Sunseri’s consistency is critical for Pitt to inject some of that high octane Todd Graham preached and failed to deliver. However, the Panthers have been guilty of underachieving routinely, the chief reason the program has cycled through four coaches in a 12-month span.
East Carolina has had its own inconsistency recently, going 11-14 in Ruffin McNeill’s two seasons there. The Skip Holtz-coached Pirates teams were founded on defense, while McNeill brought to Greenville a pass-happy, uptempo offensive style. ECU’s inability to stop much of anything — the Pirates surrendered over 32 points per game — squandered the prolific output of quarterback Dominique Davis. There is a line four-deep to replace him, but whichever of the candidates does has an experienced group returning around him. That should facilitate big production in the air-it-out system.
New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State
Ellis Johnson inherits a nicely stocked cupboard, returning four of the top five rushers from the No. 20 ground attack. The Golden Eagles are the favorite to win Conference USA East with UCF serving a bowl ban, and repeating as conference champion would propel USM into a more prominent game. However, replacing Austin Davis is no easy feat. USM also draws an absolutely brutal schedule: Nebraska, Boise State and Louisville appear on the non-conference slate, and the Golden Eagles travel to both UCF and SMU in league.
Defending Sun Belt champion Arkansas State has a new head coach in former Auburn offensive mastermind Gus Malzahn. His style helped facilitate Cam Newton’s rise, and in Jonesboro Malzahn has another dual skilled talent around which to build his system. Ryan Aplin threw for over 3500 yards last season and rushed for nearly 600 under Hugh Freeze. The RedWolves defense will not be as good, losing NFL talent, but ASU is capable of contending for Sun Belt supremacy once more.
Maaco Las Vegas
UCLA vs. Boise State
Winning the default version of the Pac-12 South crown meant UCLA had to file a petition just to lose the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The Bruins won’t play in the Pac-12 championship, but Jim Mora will not need a special exemption to appear in the postseason. UCLA has no shortage of talent and could compete for second place in the division. Still, past Bruin teams have been talented but failed to match expectations. Until Mora proves to be the catalyst for more, projecting the Bruins for more than seven wins is in folly.
Meanwhile Boise State is becoming as much a Vegas regular as the Rat Pack. BSU likely won’t contend for a BCS bowl bid — a Week 1 date against Michigan State looms large. But the Broncos remain the team to beat in the Mountain West, and winning the Mountain West means going to Sin City. Again.
Hawai’i
Fresno State vs. SMU
What better way to spend Christmas Eve than watching what should be two of the most potentially exciting offenses from outside the Big Six light up Oahu? How Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert translates to June Jones’ West Coast system will determine how far SMU goes. He will have talented back Zach Line in his backfield to help shoulder the load, and a proven No. 1 target in Darius Johnson.
The Mustangs have yet to achieve the explosiveness Jones’s teams at Hawai’i, but have offset that with very underrated defense. The Mustangs held opponents to 23 points per game last season, and return talented pieces like linebacker Ja’Gared Davis.
Fresno State boasts premier off-season talent, including the MWC’s best running back in Robbie Rouse. Derek Carr could also prove to be the league’s top quarterback. No question the Bulldogs will put up points. It’s preventing them that will be the biggest concern for the team from the Valley.