3 & Out: Dethroning The SEC Part 2, The USC Defense Could Be a Problem and a Critical Year For Boise State
By Zach Pugh
1st Down: Dethroning the SEC in 2012 part 2
Last week I wrote the Texas Longhorns are one of three teams that can dethrone the SEC in 2012. Yes, I was called crazy by a few people, but looking at the defense the Longhorns should have in 2012, I stand by my choice.
Here are a couple more options for knocking off the SEC.
Florida State
When you bring up the Seminoles’ return to prominence, you will be immediately told that’s what people said last year. It’s understandable — FSU hasn’t been in the national title hunt since 2000, but this year has all the makings for a BCS title run.
If Florida State finds itself in the BCS championship against an SEC opponent this season, the defense can carry the Seminoles to a victory. Nine starters return from a unit that ranked fourth in the nation last season. Six players are projected to be taken in the 2013 NFL Draft. They would fit right in the SEC with LSU and Alabama.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, only Alabama allowed a smaller percentage of rushes to go for five or more yards than the ‘Noles last season. FSU also averaged 3.1 sacks per game in 2011, which was eighth in the nation.
Jimbo Fisher is also a factor in this. Fisher spent time under Nick Saban and Les Miles before he made it to the Seminoles’ staff and has the defensive line to prove he picked up a thing or two about SEC recruiting strategy. The defense is loaded with depth on the line, led by senior Brandon Jenkins.
While the defensive line is lacking a bit in speed, the size of the men up front has grown since the arrival of Fisher.
For a deeper look at a Seminoles BCS title run in 2012, you can read my 3 & Out from Aug. 13
Michigan State
MSU makes the cut because of its defense. Are you picking up a theme here? While the Michigan Wolverines may be primed for more success in the next couple years, in a head-to-head match-up against the SEC elite, I’m more confident in the Spartan defense for a positive outcome in 2012.
The buzz is all about the defense in East Lansing and for good reason. Last season, the Spartans had the best unit in the Big Ten and has plenty of depth and veteran leadership to lead the charge this season.
Last season, Michigan State finished the year allowing just 277 yards a game, ninth against the run and 11th against the pass.
The Spartans have a defensive end tandem that is second only to South Carolina, with William Gholston and Marcus Rush (a fitting name since Rush racked up 58 tackles and four sacks in 2011). An opposing SEC quarterback would have a difficult time completing passes against NFL-level talent cornerback Johnny Adams and a veteran junior on the other side, Darqueze Dennard.
The linebacker group is another dangerous aspect. Running could be just as tough as passing against Max Bullough, the speed of Denicos Allen and the veteran presence of Chris Norman.
2nd Down: Does USC have enough defense for a title run?
There aren’t many weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball for the Trojans this season. It wasn’t enough to have Heisman favorite and potential first pick in the 2013 draft Matt Barkley behind center with Robert Woods and Marqise Lee as two weapons to wreak havoc on the nation, but then Penn State transfer Silas Redd came aboard to give the Trojans a much needed every down back.
Now, the issue is with depth. It’s hard to favor USC with their 70 scholarship players against other top teams such as LSU, Alabama and even Pac-12 foe Oregon and their 85 scholarship players. The obvious problem is depth on both sides of the ball. The Trojans aren’t able to have the same amount of quality back-ups (due to NCAA sanctions) as the top teams they will be competing with for a BCS title this season.
The defense could very well be the Trojans’ downfall. USC absolutely can’t afford injuries and unfortunately already lost two defensive lineman for what could be the whole season. The lack of experience on the defensive line results in just one player with two starts serving as the veteran.
Head coach Lane Kiffin has stated that he has limited physical play in practice to protect his limited roster. That makes getting into “football shape” much more difficult for both sides of the ball. Less time to work on tackling technique also translates to less hits for members of the offense. Yes, the players should know how to take a hit by now, but unless there is a consistent level of physical play, players could not necessarily be fully ready for a real game.
Due to academic ineligibility and injuries, the defense is returning five starters from a unit that even know was victorious against Oregon, still gave up 35 points. The Trojans also gave up 41 in a win against Arizona and 56 in a three overtime loss to Stanford.
Can the Trojans get past the Ducks for a Pac-12 title? While we can’t expect USC to match the Tigers and ‘Bama in size just yet, they haven’t been able to match the Ducks in speed within their own conference. They haven’t really been able to match Oregon’s speed the last three years and are small in comparison to the elite defenses such as Alabama and LSU.
3rd Down: The most critical year in Boise State history?
How in the world does a program replace the best quarterback in its history? Kellen Moore wasn’t behind center when the Broncos beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl; he was around for a 50-3 record with victories against Virginia Tech, Oregon (twice), Georgia and a Fiesta Bowl victory against TCU.
The Broncos are in the process of moving to the Big East for the 2013 season and along with another new conference affiliation, construction of a new 70,000 square foot football complex has begun. Boise State keeps making improvements to the football program and has maintained a consistent level of success over their tenure as an FBS school. But can the success continue?
Chris Petersen has been able to build a working attitude and system in Boise and even as the Broncos are faced with the biggest turnover in the FBS, Peterson still has the boys in blue oozing with confidence as they head into their 2012 season opener against Michigan State this Friday.
They don’t attract four and five star recruits, but have done just fine with recruiting the right players for their culture.
Junior Joe Southwick has the job of replacing Kellen Moore and has Peterson’s full confidence as he stated Southwick knows the system inside and out. Southwick has a quarterback’s best friend in a running game that features D.J. Harper and Drew Wright. Boise was able to rack up 2,235 yards on the ground last season and with Southwick, who is a much better runner than Moore, the Bronco running game will be able to hurt teams in more than one way.
Southwick also has two very consistent receivers to fall back on with Matt Miller and Mitch Burroughs.
The Broncos aren’t as inexperienced as people may think. They have 48 letterman returning and have an offensive line that has four players with starting experience. Robert Prince is the new man in charge of the offense and shouldn’t miss a beat with the offense as he has plenty of history with Peterson.
Boise State has been able to remain a consistent winning program year in and year out, but can the success remain? This season will be Peterson’s biggest and toughest test as head coach not just because of the absence of Kellen Moore, but also the fact six other players were lost to the NFL.
The defensive holes do appear to be filled, but how long will it take for the defense to put up the numbers from the 2010 season?
Will the Petersen system prevail in 2012?