Going Out On A Limb: Mountain West Edition

The WAC isn’t really going away, it’s just rebranding as the Mountain West. OK, so that’s not technically true, but the conference born of longtime WAC members like BYU and Utah is replenishing its ranks in the new era of college football from parts of the WAC.

It’s a surprising metamorphosis given in the early stages of Realignment Apocalypse 2010, the MWC was looking like the fifth best conference. Utah, BYU, TCU and Boise State were all too briefly in the fold; after this season, none of the four will be. Meanwhile three former WAC programs — Fresno State, Hawai’i and Nevada — join the fold. San Jose State and Utah State are waiting in the wings.

This is BSU’s farewell tour before heading to what I can only assume will be hipsters’ favorite conference due to its ironic name, the Big East. Smart money is on the Broncos claiming the conference championship Casey Pachall and TCU robbed them of a season ago, but this column isn’t called Smart Money. We are going out on a limb, and no limb in the Mountain West is more out there than projecting the field to come away with the league title.

Here’s an interesting fact to chew on, though: Boise State has not won an outright conference title in two seasons. Considering all Chris Petersen’s program has accomplished in that same time — winning 24 games, finishing in the top 10 twice, knocking off Virginia Tech and Georgia in the backyard of each — the Broncos’ inability to claim sole possession of championships in leagues cynics like to call inferior is shocking. The possibility of a third such campaign exists.

Nevada Wins The Mountain West Conference Championship

There isn’t any team in this year’s Mountain West as good as 2011 TCU, but 2012 Boise State isn’t 2011 Boise State. Make sense? This BSU also isn’t the 2010 version, just like Nevada is not the Nevada of 2010, when the Wolf Pack was a top 10 team. But like 2010, I am calling for the Pack to howl in Reno when the Broncos pay a visit. Boise State’s last trip to Reno led to the most Tom Rinaldi moment of Tom Rinaldi’s career.

Cody Farajado is an exciting dual threat quarterback. He has a long way to go before he’s compared to Colin Kaepernick, but he has shown flashes of becoming the same kind of game-changer. Kaepernick didn’t exactly torch Boise State in November 2010 — he rushed for 45 yards and threw just more completions (19) than incompletions (16). Fajardo doesn’t need to be Superman to challenge the Broncos, but he does need to find a new Rishard Matthews. Matthews did torch the Broncos in 2010. Look for sophomore Aaron Bradley to emerge as a new potential 1000-yard receiving.

The schedule breaks favorably for UNR to win the conference. In addition to Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Wyoming must all come to Reno. The road hurdle that will be most intriguing is a Sept. 22 trek to Hawai’i. The Warriors will be down in Norm Chow’s first season as head coach, but Honolulu has been less-than-Paradise for the Pack. UH was Nevada’s sole loss in an otherwise unblemished 2010.

San Diego State Has A Program Record 10 Wins In Sight Entering Bowl

Rocky Long is as savvy a defensive mind as there is in the West. His hire was a key reason Brady Hoke had such quick success in turning San Diego State from a regular Mountain West cellar dweller into a program seeking its third straight bowl. The university athletic department did right by him, hiring Long to take over for Hoke after the unceremonious way he was let go from New Mexico.

His fingerprints are all over this defense, which should compensate for the loss of Larry Parker. The talented cornerback was one of the nation’s best defensive backs a season ago, but the beauty of Long’s scheme is that it allows playmakers to emerge and flourish. Look for Gabe Lemon to step up and becoming the defensive difference maker.

Gone are Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman, two losses from the offense that would seemingly make as bold a scenario as a 9-3 regular season seem implausible. Hillman ranked close to more celebrated backs like LaMichael James and Montee Ball in yards last season — and that’s precisely why I see the SDSU offense improving. Coordinator Andy Ludwig grew too reliant on Hillman. The receiving corps lost a lot of talent, and Ludwig’s play calling was tight-fisted. One might not guess it from Lindley’s 447 attempts, which was actually up from 2010, but Ludwig had him throwing a lot more swing passes and various other short yardage routes, which resulted in a dramatic, 700-yard decline in his production.

Hillman rushed 311 times last year, an astounding number in this day and age. He also caught 24 passes. It’s incredible he didn’t face more injuries. His absence, and combined with the abilities of those in the passing game, will force Ludwig to open the playbook.

Oregon State transfer Ryan Katz is more than capable, and is surrounded with an experienced bunch of targets that realistically, could be the best in the Mountain West. Colin Lockett became the go-to guy last season, and Gavin Escobar was among the country’s best pass-catching tight ends. Add USC transfer Brice Butler, and the Aztecs are formidable aerial threats.

The Aztecs face many of the better teams on their schedule away from Qualcomm Stadium: Washington, Fresno State, Boise State, Nevada and Wyoming are all on the road. SDSU will likely have to run the table in the Q for nine wins to be attainable.