Big Sky Conference Preview/Predictions: Week One

This Thursday night, the Big Sky Conference will begin a new era as four new teams enter the conference expanding membership from 9 to 13 football-playing members, and the first week of games  (all non-conference) are not short on intriguing match ups.

Some of these games involve Big Sky teams taking on FBS foes like Arizona State, Idaho, Fresno State, and more, while others take on other FCS opponents like Montana playing host to South Dakota.

Here’s our weekly Big Sky Conference preview, complete with keys to look for in each game along with predictions.

Bummer’s Big Sky pick-em record:  0-0 conference, 0-0 overall

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Eastern Washington @ Idaho

With Idaho joining the Big Sky in “non-football” sports and potentially joining the conference for football sports too if a FBS Independent schedule does not work out, one can consider this game as a way for the Vandals to prove their “FBS manhood”.  Unfortunately, they play a difficult opponent in Eastern Washington who should be greatly improved from a 6-5 record last season.  Looking at the Eagles, they are likely to have one of the best passing attacks in all of FCS this season with experienced returners at receiver in Nicholas Edwards, Brandon Kaufman, and Greg Herd.  The Eagles also have high hopes in SMU transfer QB Kyle Padron to replace Payton Award winner Bo Levi Mitchell.

The Vandals have many more question marks on offense however, breaking in new starters at quarterback and running back.  While starting QB Dominique Blackman and RB Ryan Bass have showed promise heading into the season, Idaho especially need to rely on WR Justin Veltung and C Mike Marboe to lead the way.  Along with the fact Eastern Washington also has less question marks on defense, especially returning LB Zach Johnson from injury and CB TJ Lee, look for the Eagles to pull off the FCS over FBS “upset” in what could likely be an offensive shootout.

Eastern Washington 34, Idaho 24

Northern Colorado @ Utah

With a 0-11 season in 2011, Northern Colorado has no where to go but up.  Unfortunately, the Bears play a daunting match up against a Pac-12 team in Utah during the first week.  While the odds of the Bears keeping things close are slim to none, keep an eye on the defense especially at LB Clarence Bumpas who led the team with a whopping 145 tackles last season along with DT Devontae Chapple.

Looking at Utah, the Bears will have a very difficult time containing preseason All-American NT Star Lotulelei.  Additionally, it will be interesting to see how the Ute offense emerges this season with QB Jordan Wynn and RB John White in the backfield.

Utah 49, Northern Colorado 7

South Dakota Mines @ North Dakota

While many teams are taking on FBS foes in week one, North Dakota will take on Division II transitional South Dakota Mines.  North Dakota has some nice talent returning on offense in RB Jake Miller, who rushed for 942 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2011, and WR Greg Hardin, who received 43 catches for 549 yards in nine games before suffering a year ending injury.  Additionally, look for North Carolina transfer QB Braden Hanson to find success against the South Dakota Mines Hardrockers in an easy victory for North Dakota.

North Dakota 35, South Dakota Mines 10

Sacramento State @ New Mexico State

Sacramento State had high expectations heading into 2011 and with wins over Oregon State and Montana, the Hornets looked like they could make some noise in the Big Sky.  Unfortunately, Sacramento State finished 4-7, and with losing many key starters from last season expect the Hornets to be at the bottom part of the Big Sky this season.  One strength however is at linebacker with Todd Davis who had 96 tackles last season along with Jeff Badger.  Also keep an eye on SS Ryan McMahon in the secondary.

Looking at the Aggies, QB Adrew Manley returns from a injury in 2011 and has some nice playmakers at receiver in Kavan Walker and Kemonte’ Bateman.  New Mexico State should win their opener easily at home.

New Mexico State 34, Sacramento State 17

Southern Utah @ Utah State

Southern Utah has a lot to prove in its first season as a part of the Big Sky Conference and with preseason all-american QB Bran Sorensen, the Thunderbirds will have a shot to make some noise.  Southern Utah has the offensive line to succeed, but will need a few more recievers along with a RB in Mike Tagliaferri to step up for the offense to put up points against Utah State.

As for Utah State, the Aggies have some solid experience at linebacker and in the secondary with LB Bojay Filimoeatu, CB Nevin Lawson, and CB Jumanne Robertson.  Along with QB Checkie Keeton and RB Kerwynn Williams in the backfield for the Aggies, Utah State should emerge victorious even though Southern Utah will keep it fairly close.

Utah State 27, Southern Utah 23

Azusa Pacific @ UC Davis

UC Davis will enter the Big Sky Conference with a week one match up against new a Division II member in Azusa Pacific.  The Aggies will hope to become more consistent in 2012, as their 2011 4-7 record included victories over Cal Poly and Causeway Cup rival Sacramento State, but a loss to Division II Humboldt State.  Even though their record won’t likely show it with a tougher schedule, UC Davis will be improved in 2012 returning QB Randy Wright and RB Colton Silveria along with a great defensive end in Bobby Erskine.

Azusa Pacific returns 6 starters on offense along with 5 on defense, most notably RB Terrell Watson and LB Sean Barber.  Even though UC Davis lost to a Great Northwest Athletic Conference foe in Humboldt State in 2011, don’t expect it to happen in 2012 against the Cougars.

UC Davis 21, Azusa Pacific 14

Chadron State @ Montana State

Montana State has emerged as one of the favorites to win the FCS National Championship this season, and rightfully so returning play makers on offense in QB Denarius McGhee and RB Cody Kirk.  Additionally, the Bobcats have a tremendous defense, especially up front with DT Zach Minter and LB Jody Owens.

However, in Montana State’s last meeting against Chadron State in 2006, the Eagles pulled off the upset 35-24 one week after Montana State knocked off Colorado.  In the first night game in the history of Bobcat Stadium, don’t look for another upset to happen.

Montana State 52, Chadron State 6

Northern Arizona @ Arizona State

Northern Arizona is another Big Sky team with high hopes in 2012 with 15 returning starters, most notably star RB Zach Bauman.  Additionally, QB Cary Grossart is looking to have a big year and improve on his 2,745 passing yards last season, especially with returning targets in Ify Umodu and Dejzon Walker.

While Arizona State is looking to take another step down this season with incoming head coach Todd Graham, the Sun Devils are still playing with much more talent throughout the field, especially with LB Brandon Magee returning from injury and RB Cameron Marshall.  Northern Arizona has the talent on offense to keep it interesting for a little bit, but Arizona State will win this one.

Arizona State 38, Northern Arizona 20

Idaho State @ Air Force

Idaho State is a team that should improve in 2012, especially returning WR Rodrick Rumble and his 1,348 receiving yards in 2011.  Additionally, the Bengals return a decent quarterback in Kevin Yost, along with four starters on the offensive line.

However, defense is going to be a huge concern for Idaho State this season, especially with only four returning starters.  To make matters worse, the Bengals will try to contain Air Force’s unique option offense with Mike DeWitt and Wes Cobb in the backfield.  Additionally, the Falcons have a solid linebacker in Alex Means.  Air Force will run all over Idaho State in week one.

Air Force 38, Idaho State 17

South Dakota @ Montana

While many would consider this game the Big Sky Conference game of the week for week one, we’ll give the Grizzlies all the attention next week when they take on Appalachian State.  Looking at the Montana offense, the Grizzlies will settle on Trent McKinney at quarterback, but watch for the depth at running back in Peter Nguyen and Dan Moore.  On defense, the Grizzlies have solid talent at linebacker in Jordan Tripp, John Kanongat’a, and Brock Coyle.  CB Nate Harris is suspended for this game as a result of “a violation of team rules”, but other corners in Sean Murray and Josh Dennard should fill the void there.

South Dakota will likely take a step down from a 6-5 record last season, especially with only 3 starters returning on offense and a tougher schedule moving to the Missouri Valley Football Conference.  However, the underlying story line in this game is in Joe Glenn, South Dakota’s new head coach.  Joe Glenn was the head coach at Montana for three seasons leading the Grizzlies to the 2001 FCS (then 1-AA) National Championship before leaving for the head coaching position at Wyoming after the 2002 season.

Even with the question marks surrounding lack of returning starters and Montana’s off season issues, the Grizzlies will win their season opener in Washington-Grizzly Stadium.

Montana 31, South Dakota 17

San Diego @ Cal Poly

Cal Poly has high hopes heading into 2012 and is the only other Big Sky team to take on another FCS opponent in week one.  However, the Mustangs only return eight total starters sans a solid crop of running backs in their wing-t option offense and will need WB Deonte Williams and FB Gabriel Umoh to step up in the backfield with returning QB Andre Broadous.  Additionally there are unproven players in the front seven, but Cal Poly will count on MLB Kennith Jackson and DT Sullivan Grosz as playmakers.

It will be interesting to see how Cal Poly’s defensive front responds to a solid running back in San Diego’s Kenny James who rushed for 1,208 yards and 12 touchdowns last season.  The strength on the defense for the Toreros will be at linebacker led by Zach Dunaj, not to mention a solid player in DE Blake Oliaro.  San Diego will have the potential to take advantage of a few question marks surrounding the Mustangs, but look for Cal Poly to emerge victorious.

Cal Poly 24, San Diego 17

Carroll College (MT) @ Portland State

This match up will actually be more interesting than most people think.  Although at the NAIA level, the Carroll College Fighting Saints are a powerhouse with six National Championships in the past ten seasons.  The Saints return five starters on both sides of the ball including reigning NAIA Player of the Year RB Chance Demarais.  The Saints opened their season last weekend with a victory over Montana State-Northern 31-6.

However, Carroll College will face a whole new level of competition in Portland State.  The Vikings return a great linebacking corps led by Ian Sluss along with four returning starters on the offensive line.  While Carroll College has the potiential to keep things interesting, expect Portland State to roll.

Portland State 38, Carroll College 14

Weber State @ Fresno State

Weber State has flown under the radar in the past, and this season seems to be another one of those years where the Wildcats could surprise with 14 total returning starters and a workable schuedle.  While Weber State has a nice group of running backs in RB CJ Tuckett and FB Tevia Tolutau, Fresno State’s new 3-4 defensive front led by OLB Travis Brown should be able to contain the Wildcat ground game.  On offense for the Bulldogs, Weber State will have a tough time stopping RB Robbie Rouse who rushed for 1,607 yards and 13 touchdowns last season and Derek Carr has the potential to emerge at quarterback.  Look for Fresno State to start their first season in the Mountain West with a victory over the Wildcats.

Fresno State 41, Weber State 20