Going Out On A Limb: Pac-12 Edition

USC, USC, USC. Oregon, Oregon, Oregon. Discussion of the Pac-12 is focused almost primarily on the Trojans and Ducks — at least, in context of a conference championship. It’s justified. The two programs account for every league title dating back to 2003, and enter 2012 with what are likely the two most talented rosters.

What could rattle the Pac more to its foundation, then, than a Pac-12 title game that doesn’t feature the two overwhelming favorites?

Utah Wins The South

Bear in mind that the Going Out On A Limb series is unlikely scenarios that could happen, as opposed to outright projections. That said, Utah has the best opportunity to dethrone USC from its preordained perch atop the Pac-12 South. UU hosts USC in the Trojans’ first trip to Rice Eccles Stadium, a Thursday night tilt that fits the metrics of a trap game like a glove. The Utes played USC to a near-stalemate last September in Los Angeles, and return many of the same players who proved they could hang with the Trojans for 60 minutes.

Then again, we are talking about a team that lost to Washington, Arizona State and Cal by multiple touchdowns. UU also dropped the regular season finale to Colorado with a berth in the Pac-12 Championship hanging in the balance. Reversing such fortune into a 10 or 11-win season and the Pac-12 South title would be quite the leap. Building off the strong finish running back John White had to 2011 is a critical starting point, and integrating his production with the return of quarterback Jordan Wynn improves the Ute offense 10-fold.

The defense needs a makeover much less. Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei may not only be the best interior lineman in the Pac-12, but all of college football. He’s an absolute mountain who moves with surprising dexterity at his size (6-foot-4, 325 pounds) who draws in blockers like a planet pulling satellites into its orbit. As he attracts attention, it frees up gaps for Joe Kruger and Trevor Reilly to break into opposing backfields.

Utah’s defense was the stingiest in the conference last year, and ranked No. 19 nationally in points allowed. In a conference known for offense, it could be the deviation from the norm that trumps all.

Stanford Wins The North

Stanford couldn’t stay within single digits of Oregon, let alone beat the Ducks with arguably the two best teams in Cardinal history. Andrew Luck is gone, and so are Johnathan Martin, David DeCastro, Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener. So what chance does Stanford have of upending the Quack Attack this year, in Autzen? Not much of one.

But SU doesn’t necessarily need to in order to win the division.

Everyone has the Ducks’ Nov. 3 trip to Los Angeles circled on their calendars, and many project a Trojan victory. Other programs that have proven capable of slowing, or keeping pace with Chip Kelly’s lightning fast offense are few and far between, especially in the conference. But in 2010, Cal almost did so in Berkeley.

This season’s Golden Bear team is better than the ’10 version, which missed the postseason. In fact, Cal is a team I have written is poised to surprise in this season’s Pac-12 race. And what could be more surprising than the Golden Bears stunning Oregon in a renovated Memorial Stadium?

Cal has the ingredients to make such a monumental feat a reality: a stout and talented defense, and enough offensive weapons to sustain drives. Playing Oregon can be like struggling as a python wrapping itself around a victim. Every possession that goes without a score tightens the squeeze. The Golden Bear receiving corps is one of the conference’s best, likely second only to USC with Keenan Allen leading the way. Add that to a varied running game of 1000-yard rusher Isi Sofele and powerful short yardage back CJ Anderson, and Cal has the weapons to put points on the board. But more importantly, the variation can let Cal extend the length of those possessions, which means less time the Duck offense is running loose.

If Stanford can win out — not an implausible proposition — the Cardinal can win the North without beating UO.