SaturdayBlitz.com Writer Roundtable: BCS & Heisman Favorites, 2012 Sleepers & Busts

Shaun Bummer

Favorite to play in the BCS championship game, and which team wins it: Florida State and Oregon, with Oregon winning – I know, I know neither are in the SEC, every SEC team has big question marks and should end up with at least one loss. Florida State and QB EJ Manuel will be greatly improved and have a great chance of running the table with an easy schedule. Additionally, Oregon will have no problems replacing LaMichael James and given USC’s questions on defense, the Ducks will win the Pac-12 Championship Game and play for the BCS National Championship.

Heisman winner: Matt Barkley – I know, a pretty obvious pick, but Barkley has the talent around him especially at receiver in Robert Woods and Marqise Lee to put up huge numbers. As long as the Trojans win at least 10 games and Barkley matches or exceeds his statistics from last season, he’s got to be the front runner in December.

This year’s biggest surprise: Purdue – The Boilermakers return some nice talent on defense in DT Kawann Short and CB Ricardo Allen. Additionally, Purdue has a workable schedule including Wisconsin at home and very winnable games down the stretch. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, the Boliermakers have a decent shot to be in the Big Ten Championship Game this season.

This year’s biggest bust: West Virginia – Sure, West Virgina’s offense will be great, but so is the rest of the Big XII’s. Remember the Mountaineer’s went 5-2 in the Big East last season just barely snagging the tiebreaker, and that a great deal of this expectations are based on West Virginia’s performance against Clemson in the Orange Bowl.

Jeff Contizano

BCS Title Game – Alabama vs. USC
I think these will be the two best teams in the nation by the end of the season. Both have so many strengths and both are flawed, but I think USC can stay healthy enough and with that potent offensive lineup will be hard to stop. Alabama, on the other hand, will win as they have under Saban, with a strong defense and a very dominant running game. QB AJ McCarron isn’t a slouch either.

Heisman Winner – USC QB Matt Barkley
I almost went with the homer pick and chose Denard Robinson, but D-Rob doesn’t have the weapons that Barkley has. Woods and Lee on the outside- not to mention a bevy of other talented receivers and tight ends- to go along with a pair of 1,000-yard backs in McNeal and Redd. Barkley is going to put up massive numbers this year, and I don’t see Robinson, Montee Ball, or anyone else coming close to him.

Biggest Surprise… and Biggest Bust
Surprise – Ohio State, Bust – Kansas State

Last season the Buckeyes stumbled through a myriad of problems; the loss of their Head Coach, a number of star players being suspended, not to mention the turmoil that surrounded the program as they limped to a 6-7 finish. But now, they have the answer to those problems in Urban Meyer. After assembling an elite coaching staff, Meyer will have the Buckeyes playing much better in 2012. Though they cannot go to a Bowl Game or win the Big Ten, I would not be surprised to see the Bucks win 9 or 10 games.

As far as this season’s bust, I think Kansas State could be it. Now, Bill Snyder has done an amazing coaching job in his most recent stint in Manhattan, but last year’s team won so many close games that at some point, their luck has to change. The Big-12 has newcomers in TCU and West Virginia, not to mention Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and maybe a resurgent Texas team as well. The Wildcats should still go bowling but they will not match last year’s win total.

Zach Pugh

play in the BCS championship game, and which team wins it? Florida State & Oregon. Oregon is the 2013 BCS champion. I already know fans from the SEC are going to be upset and call me crazy (putting it lightly), but hear me out. Both the Ducks & ‘Noles have the easiest chance of going undefeated with their schedules and should have enough quality wins to beat out a one loss SEC team.

Florida State makes it in because of its defense. Nine starters return from a unit that finished fourth in the nation last season and although there was an ongoing carousel of an inexperienced offensive line due to injuries, they are now experienced.

The FSU defense was up to par with last years’ national champs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, only Alabama allowed a smaller percentage of rushes to go for five or more yards than the ‘Noles last season. FSU also averaged 3.1 sacks per game in 2011, which was eighth in the nation.

Oregon has won the last three Pac-12 championships and no team within the conference has been able to match the Ducks in speed. The popular pick in the conference this season is USC, but the Trojans’ path to a BCS title runs though the quack attack.

Oregon wins the 2013 BCS championship with a speedy offense and for the first time under Chip Kelly, the defense could be elite because of the defensive line, which has grown bigger recently. What conference has dominated the last six years with overpowering defensive lines?

– win the Heisman? The preseason prediction of picking the Heisman Trophy the last two years has been made a fool of the last two years with Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton winning the award. Let’s give it a shot, shall we?

It’s hard to go against Matt Barkley as the favorite, but Wisconsin running back Monte Ball is my favorite because he will most likely be relied on even more this season since Wisconsin will be without Russell Wilson and can lead the Badgers to a Big 10 title.

Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel is my dark horse candidate along with West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith

– be this year’s biggest surprise? Utah. It’s hard not to think the Utes weren’t ranked because they are the Utes. Sure, they’re in the Pac-12 now, but they will continue to fight for respect until a Pac-12 title is won.

Utah has been looked over by many (including myself) as a contender in the south division. Fellow Saturday Blitz colleague Kyle Kensing was the first to open my eyes to the potential of the Utes this year. They are returning 16 starters, nine on offense including junior quarterback Jordan Wynn. Wynn, along with the defensive line, is extremely underrated. That line features a future first-rounder in Star Lotulelei.

Utah has USC at home and the Trojans need to be very careful going into Salt Lake City. Don’t be surprised if the Utes and Ducks are battling for Pac-12 supremacy come championship time.

– be this year’s biggest bust? South Carolina. There are too many “if” scenarios for the Gamecocks. The defensive line is the best in the nation, but only one member from last year’s secondary returns (safety D.J. Swearinger) and only one player with experience at the linebacker position returns (Shaq Wilson).

Marcus Lattimore returns, but has yet to make it through a complete season and will be running behind a very inexperienced line with not much support on the outside. Connor Shaw was brilliant against Kentucky, but his play declined as the season progressed against SEC opponents.

South Carolina can make it to eight or nine wins, but they are expected to compete for a BCS title. Sorry Gamecock fans, but that is a bust.

Jeff Twining

– play in the BCS championship game, and which team wins it?

As I mentioned above, I expect Michigan to make it into the BCS championship where they will face off against… wait for it… the USC Trojans. Both programs feature senior quarterbacks with very different styles of play. “Shoelace” Robinson is a shifty runner with lightning-quick speed while Barkley is more the pro-style quarterback who sits in the pocket and picks apart defenses.

USC is hungry to win a national championship this year coming off a two-year bowl ban and with Barkely returning for his senior season. USC is the early-favorite to win BCS championship, just like Barkley is the early favorite to win the Heisman. But with all that being said, I am picking the Hoke-and-Robinson-led Michigan Wolverines to win the 2013 BCS championship game. Wait, does that make them 2012 champions or 2013 champions? Hmmm…

– win the Heisman?
The first time I ever saw Keith Price take a snap was in 2010, the year he backed up preseason Heisman contender Jake Locker at Washington. It was week four and Price’s only pass in his entire career to this point was a three-yard completion in a week two blowout against Syracuse. It was early in the fourth quarter against USC and the Locker was leveled on the previous play forcing him to the sidelines. It would be one thing if Price was running a play from mid-field in the second quarter. But instead, Price found himself at USC’s one-yard line, trailing the heavily-favored Trojans 28-23. One play later the Huskies were ahead 29-28 and Price had just thrown the first touchdown of his collegiate career.

After a surprising 2011 campaign, during which Price excelled under center and led the Huskies to an Alamo Bowl berth where they came up short in one of the highest-scoring college football games of all time, I am putting Keith Price’s name at the top of my list of Heisman dark horses.

Through the first six games of last season, Price was putting up numbers that put him in the discussion as one of the top D-I quarterbacks of the 2011 season. He had led the Huskies to a 5-1 start while throwing for 1,466 yards and 21 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. From that point forward, the Huskies’ season unraveled a bit and they went 2-4 down the stretch. Regardless, if Price had been able to maintain his stellar start throughout the entire season he would for sure have been in the Heisman discussion by year’s end. That’s why, this year, I think Price is going to take one more step forward and further establish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the Pac-12 and, possibly, in the nation

– be this year’s biggest surprise?
It would be easy to pick my national champion Michigan as my biggest surprise but, instead, I’m going to go to the completely other end of the spectrum. I think New Mexico is going to be a big surprise coming out of the Mountain West. Does that mean I expect them to be ranked at the end of the season and playing in a bowl game? Hahaha…no. Who are we kidding, we’re talking about a Lobo team that has won just three games in the past three seasons.

As I wrote yesterday, however, the contagious energy of a new head coach can have a pretty significant impact on the success of a football team. In only for this first year under new head coach Bob Davie, I see the Lobos winning three or four games this season (their best bets are Southern University, New Mexico State, Texas State, Hawaii and Colorado State). Anything more than one win for this team would definitely surprise many.

– be this year’s biggest bust?
Based purely off the success they’ve had in recent years and the continually lofty expectations that come with each additional season outside a BCS conference, the Boise State Broncos are going to be the biggest bust this year. They open the season ranked No. 24 but that’s primarily based on the reputation developed behind Kellen Moore. The biggest question on this Bronco team is at the most important position: quarterback.

The second and last year for Boise State in the Mountain West conference is expected to end in a conference championship and yet that’s without their top passer, rusher and receiver from a year ago as Moore, Martin and Tyler Shoemaker are all gone.

Anything more than two losses for Boise State is disappointing and if they reach my projected three losses (Michigan State, BYU and Nevada) then that would qualify as a bust, in my opinion.

Brandon Folsom

It’s too bad West Virginia isn’t still in the Big East because they would have been my favorite to win this BCS National Championship this season. There’s too much newness this season in the Big XII for them to win it all now, but this year I like Wisconsin over Georgia to win the crystal ball.

I like Michigan’s duel-threat quarterback Denard Robinson to win the September Heisman, but Georgia’s QB Aaron Murray to win the real thing. I’ve heard Murray, right now, is leaps and bounds ahead of where Matthew Stafford was entering his junior year.

This year’s surprise team is going to be Penn State. I’m not buying the hype surrounding Nebraska and Purdue enough to give them the nod. Bill O’Brien is going to win some games this year.

It’s a two-way tie for this year’s biggest bust team. Florida State gets the nod by default because no matter how immaculate the program’s recruiting class is, the Seminoles can never put it all together in a meaningful fashion. 1b goes to Oregon. Chip Kelly has a quarterback controversy on his hands and I’m not even sure he realizes it yet.

Rich Lynch

BCS Championship
USC versus the SEC(LSU, Alabama or Georgia). USC wins.

Heisman
Matt Barkley.

Biggest Surprise
Team: Georgia. Easy schedule without LSU or Alabama. Aaron Murray is the most underrated player in college football.

Player: James White, running back from Wisconsin. White shared rushing attempts with Montee Ball last season, but has had Ball some off-field issues. White will get more attempts this season and produce behind the Wisconsin offensive line.

Biggest Bust
Team: Arizona State, where Todd Graham is the new head coach. Everyone who goes to Arizona State thinks that he can make the program successful. Sorry, it is not happening Todd.

Player: Montee Ball. I like Wisconsin. I think Ball is a GOOD player. He has the most potential to be a bust though, with the off-field incident and head injuries he sustained as a result.