Three Teams That Must Win Saturday: Iowa, Cal and Illinois

Sep 22, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans tailback Curtis McNeal (22) breaks free from California Golden Bears defensive back Josh Hill (23) for a 62-yard gain in the first quarter at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC defeated California 27-9. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Cal, Iowa and Illinois are all in must-win situations Saturday. That might seem a hasty, if not outright ridiculous assertion to make before September’s even over, but none of the three is above .500, with the most challenging stretch of their schedules still ahead. Each has a winnable game awaiting it that if dropped might doom their bowl prospects.

Road games at Ohio State and USC were easily penciled in as losses for Cal before the season, so neither defeat has that much bearing on the Golden Bears’ postseason aspirations. But losing at home to Nevada in Week 1 puts the Fightin’ Tedfords in an unexpected hole, with Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, a road trip to Utah and of course the Big Game all ahead. Navigating such a stretch 4-2 is a tall order, but precisely what would face Cal should it lose to Arizona State.

Conversely, the Sun Devils are off to a strong, 3-1 start and just a few points shy of unbeaten.

Cal took it to ASU in last November’s regular season finale at Sun Devil Stadium. However, no game was more indicative of the failings of the Dennis Erickson era than the 47-38 Cal win, which saw ASU flagged 11 times for 121 yards: many came from linebacker Vontaze Burfict.

Burfict’s gone, and so is the prevailing attitude that made ASU college football’s most penalized team.

Cal’s struggled finding an offensive rhythm. Against Ohio State, the Bears broke off some big plays but sputtered with opportunities to capture the lead. A great defensive effort much of the way against USC last week had Cal in striking distance in the second half, but the offense couldn’t sustain drives. ASU has been good about stepping on opponents early, jumping on Illinois and Utah both before halftime en route to lopsided wins. Cal cannot withstand a sluggish start like it had at Ohio State.

Speaking of Arizona State, the Sun Devils pounded Illinois on its trip to Tempe two weeks. The Fighting Illini are 2-2, but its two losses are by a combined 59 points. Last week, Louisiana Tech came into Champaign and hung 52 on a defense that once ranked among the nation’s elite statistically.

Meanwhile the offense has struggled with the instability of quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase disappearing and reappearing from the lineup with injury. A healthy Scheelhaase could challenge the Penn State defense much like Ohio’s Tyler Tettleton in Week 1. Reilly O’Toole played much of the way against Louisiana Tech and the Illini offense looked lost. Such has been Illinois’ problem dating back at least to last season and the six-game skid on which Ron Zook ended his tenure.

Several unfortunate undercurrents exist beneath Saturday’s game vs. Penn State. The last contest Joe Paterno ever coached was the Oct. 29 Penn State – Illinois meeting in which Paterno claimed his since-redacted 409^th career victory. The scandal that became public knowledge a week later leveled the old Penn State program to the ground and left the new incarnation Bill O’Brien leads on Saturday.

From a purely football standpoint, the fallout made PSU susceptible to defeat, thinning out the numbers off the bench and redirecting possible recruits.

New Illini head coach Tim Beckman did little to curry favor with conference mate O’Brien. After the NCAA declared open season on Nittany Lion players, Beckman reportedly has as many as eight assistants staked out about State College. How much possible hostilities factor into this game is an intriguing sub-plot.

September 22, 2012; Iowa City, IA, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes fullback Mark Weisman (45) runs the ball in the first half of the game against the Central Michigan Chippewas at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE
Iowa is 2-2 and a late rally against Northern Illinois shy of 1-3. The natives of Iowa City are restless, boisterously voicing their complaints about Kirk Ferentz’s astronomical contract. Minnesota comes to town unbeaten, but largely untested. The Gophers needed overtime in Week 1 to knock off 1-3 UNLV, and last Saturday edged out 1-3 Syracuse in a defensive struggle.

Minnesota is also playing without its starting quarterback, MarQueis Gray, who is still nursing an ankle sprain. Max Shortell led the Gophers last week against Syracuse, though his final stat line was underwhelming.

The Gophers have been solid defensively, especially against the pass. Last week, Minnesota contained Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib. Nassib came in among the most prolific passers in the nation, but finished with just 228 yards and was intercepted twice. Such an opposing defense might have spelled a doomsday scenario for Iowa two weeks ago, when the depleted Hawkeye backfield meant James Vandenberg was throwing almost as often as an air raid quarterback. But against Central Michigan, Mark Weisman broke out for three touchdowns and over 200 yards.

Thus far, he’s been the sole reliable rushing option, but needs to come through for Iowa to start Big Ten play 1-0.

This game is perhaps less meaningful in the scope of the 2012 season, than it is for overall perception of Hawkeye football. The Golden Gophers have won each of the last two against Iowa. A third straight season of the Gophers bringing the Floyd of Rosedale back to Minneapolis might send Iowa’s fan base into an apoplectic rage.