FCS Roundtable: Reevaluating Contenders & Top Performers

September 1, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Youngstown State Penguins wide receiver Andre Stubbs (4) runs into the end zone to score a 13 yard touchdown against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. The Youngstown State Penguins won 31-17. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

Week 6 approaches, which marks the midway(ish) point of the season for the Championship Subdivision. The FCS plays 11 regular season games with one bye, so by the end of Saturday every program will have at least five appearances under its belt.

With that landmark approaching, the Roundtable panelists reevaluated championship expectations.

SoCon John

Right now, I think my mid-season contenders for a run at the national title are North Dakota State and Youngstown State from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, Georgia Southern and Wofford from the SoCon, Eastern Washington and Montana State from the Big Sky, James Madison from the CAA, and for my darkhorse teams this season is McNeese State out of the Southland and Northern Arizona out of the Big Sky.

I like how Zach Bauman is running the football right now for the Lumberjacks, and NAU has one of the more balanced attacks in the Big Sky. Bauman’s performance against Montana a few weeks ago was solid against a Grizzlies defensive line that I saw look dominant at times against Appalachian State earlier this season.

A team that will play the spoiler role down the stretch is Furman. They will knock off either Wofford, Georgia Southern or Appalachian State down the stretch this season, and while the Paladins probably won’t make the postseason, this is a team that will be back in the SoCon title hunt next fall.

As far as the Walter Payton Award, maybe I am a bit biased, but it’s hard to argue with what Eric Breitenstein has been able to do through the early portion of the schedule for Wofford. He enters this week’s matchup against Furman coming off a 321-yard rushing performance against Elon, which is a Southern Conference regular-season record.

Joe Suhoski, VBR Productions

For the most part, the contenders I expect to be atop the standings are coming through, with one exception. At 2-2, Sam Houston State has already lost more games this year than they did all of last year. Their Week Two loss at Baylor was not surprising, but following that with a loss at Central Arkansas dropped the team to 1-2 at the time. It’s very possible that the team will win out the rest of their games, but seeing a team that breezed through the Southland last year lose its conference opener this year was a surprise.

The CAA squads that have looked the most impressive are Old Dominion and James Madison, which is consistent with where I thought they’d be. I do want to give myself a pat on the back for my preseason expectations of Villanova. In the first FCS Rountable, I suggested that they might have a surprising season if several things came together. They’re currently 4-1 (the loss was to Temple) and are undefeated in conference-play. These four wins are already double what they achieved last year, and three more CAA wins should get them to the playoffs.

As far as teams that could slide, I am interested to see how Towson handles the next several weeks. Four of their next five opponents are: at James Madison; home against Old Dominion; then consecutive road games at Villanova and Delaware. They currently sit at 2-2 (1-0) with their two losses coming against FBS programs. Their season ends at New Hampshire, which played well at Old Dominion and against Delaware. It will take a Herculian effort to go 5-2 to reach seven wins with such a tough stretch in the middle of their season.

I’m going for a homer pick and calling Taylor Heinicke my MVP. Entering the season as a true sophomore with less than ten starts, he has mastered Coach Bobby Wilder’s spread offense and taken it to record-breaking production. During the 24-point comeback against New Hampshire, he asserted himself on the sidelines to rally the team more vocally than he had previously. While he deflected credit to his performance to his line, receivers, and coaches, that comeback would not have happened without his 792 yards of total offense. Other CAA MVP candidates include QB John Robertson (Villanova); QB Justin Thorpe (James Madison); WR RJ Harris (New Hampshire); and LB Paul Worrilow (Delaware).

Kyle McGough, Yosef’s Cabin

At the midpoint of the season there have been a few surprises as to how the season is plodding along. Let’s first look at how my initial predictions are doing:

National Champ Contenders:
Sam Houston State (2-2)
North Dakota State (4-0)
Georgia Southern (3-1)
James Madison (3-1)
Youngstown State (4-0)

Dark Horse:
Chattanooga (2-3)

I think it’s quite easy to say (looking at the list) I was pretty safe in the picks that I made. My dark horse has turned out to be lame unfortunately and QB/coach drama has put the Mocs on the outside looking in at this point in the season. I’m not sure they’ll turn it around in time to be the dark horse I imagined they might be. With that said, I do have a few changes in my expectations for the championship. I’m going to refrain from jumping on the Montana State bandwagon here, because quite frankly, I’m not sure they’ve really played much of anyone. They’re 5-0, but 3 of those wins came against programs with losing records at this point in the season, another win was against a mediocre 3-2 Drake team, and Chadron State is a Div-II school. So while they have been able to climb the polls to number 2, I expect them to falter as they get deeper into Big Sky conference play. North Dakota State’s still up in my favorite to win it all list. They were able to knock off Colorado State (which may not be top-notch but it is BCS) and a good Northern Iowa team.

Sep 15, 2012; Iowa City, IA, USA; Northern Iowa Panthers running back David Johnson (7) is tackled by Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back B.J. Lowery (19) during the game at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Purdy/The Des Moines Register via US PRESSWIRE
Speaking of Northern Iowa, they get my vote for toughest schedule played to date and I hope to see more schedules like this, although it hasn’t been too kind to them. They are only 1-4 with their lone win coming against a D-II program, but they’ve played well against two BCS teams in Wisconsin and Iowa, and then came to the FCS and played the current #1 North Dakota State and #3 Youngstown State. I think Northern Iowa is going to be hard pressed to make the playoffs this year even if they win out, but I love seeing a team that is not afraid to go out and play tough competition.

I’m going to take a bit of a cop out on my favorite at this point to win the title with North Dakota State playing Youngstown State. My favorite to win the title will be the winner of this game. The Montana vs Appalachian State game got lots of great press due to the weekend that it was on (and the lack of quality BCS matchups), but the NDSU vs. YSU game is going to have a bigger impact on the FCS this season and may very well be a preview of the national title game.

I also think Illinois State has been doing some great work and may be getting YSU at a good time, right after the YSU vs NDSU game. Illinois State has somewhat quietly moved up to #11 and I believe they are underrated. The teams they’ve played haven’t been overly impressive but this Illinois State team has been able to start the season 5-0. They have a few big hurdles to go though, with YSU, NDSU, and NIU still on their plate. The shift in power in the FCS has been moving towards the MVC as of late so it will be interesting to see if that shift continues.

As far as teams sliding into obscurity? I’m looking at you Sam Houston. You have done nothing to really impress us this far in the season. Running the table in your conference may help you crack the top 5 again, but you’re going to have to earn it. Oddly enough, my new dark horse that I’ll be riding comes from your division and already has a win over you. Central Arkansas has been playing fairly well and while they still have a couple of tough contests left (McNeese State and Eastern Illinois), they could be a sleeper to enter the playoffs this year if they can can pull of a few more upsets.

Russell Varner, Southern Pigskin

Ok, first off, how are we already at the midway point of the season? Slow down football season! You just started!

Onto the actual talking points themselves. First off, yes my expectations for the championship have changed a little. North Dakota State is still on top of the FCS world, to the surprise of none, but after them is a mix of traditional powerhouses and new up-and-comers – teams like Montana State, Youngstown State, Old Dominion and Wofford – some of which I will admit I did not expect to compete for a national title. I honestly believe you can make a case for all five of the aforementioned teams as national championship contenders, but if I had to pick two leaders, I would say that North Dakota State (I say they beat Youngstown State this weekend) and Montana State would be the front runners right now (yeah I know. Really going out on a limb by picked the teams ranked No. 1 and 2 in the FCS and TSN polls).

I do believe that Old Dominion and Wofford to need to be careful though – both have some tricky conference games left. ODU has yet to face Villanova, Towson and James Madison – the later two road games – while Wofford’s remaining conference schedule is as follows: vs. Furman, at Georgia Southern, at Appalachian State, vs. The Citadel, at Samford, vs. Chattanooga. Good luck surviving that unscathed.

Who is the midseason MVP? I’d like to see someone make a case for someone other than ODU’s Taylor Heinicke. Through five games, he has thrown for nearly 2,300 yards with 21 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes. He is averaging 456 yards per game. You know what kind of season he is on pace for? 5,016 yards, 46 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Where would the Monarchs be without Heinicke putting up numbers to rival Geno Smith? Easy midseason MVP pick here.

Todd Davis, JMU Sports Blog
Sept. 8, 2012; Pullman, WA, USA; Eastern Washington Eagles quarterback Kyle Padron (2) gestures against the Washington State Cougars during the first half at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-US PRESSWIRE
THE leading contender is whoever wins this weekend’s YSU/NDSU matchup. EWU looks tough out west again after a title-hangover last year and of course Montana State and Danarius McGhee. Not sure anyone from the CAA or SoCon has truly asserted themselves yet despite some impressive records and numbers. One thing to really watch out for as the season moves along, especially with some of the Southland and OVC teams, is the “less than 6 D1 wins may place a team in jeopardy” provision. No one has ever made the field with less than 6 D1 wins, including some very solid contenders like last year’s Delaware squad, and there are a bunch of quality teams or name programs with D2 wins and/or multiple FBS losses on their resumes already in danger.

It may pain us to say it, but the mid-season MVP is without a doubt Taylor Heinicke of Old Dominion. The numbers are simply staggering and his performance against New Hampshire transcended FCS, something that’s good for everyone at this level. Like West Virginia’s Geno Smith, it will be interesting to see if their unique talents at the head of prolific offenses can outgun the tougher teams on their schedules without any assistance from the other side of the ball.

Ben Moore, PanterTalk.com

I have readjusted my expectations a bit as we are starting to see some suprise team emerge like New Hampshire who spanked #6 Delaware last Saturday. The Wildcats are very balanced offensively and have found a very good QB in Vailas.

Another team that I’ve been impressed with is Illinois State. They are one of the 8 teams who registered a win over an FBS program and utilized that momentum to streak out to a 5-0 start.

My contenders remain North Dakota State and Old Dominion but look out for the aforementioned Illinois State.

We’ve had discussions on our site about a potential disappointment for the Southern Conference as historical powers App State and Georgia Southern have already accumulated losses.

My mid-season MVP should not be a stretch as it’s Old Dominion’s Sophomore QB Taylor Heinicke. The kid has lived up to the hype and has ODU as high as #5 in some polls. He’s putting on an aerial assault every Saturday and I believe that continues this weekend vs. Villanova.