The Wednesday Rewind: Five Bold Predictions from the Initial BCS Rankings

Oct 13, 2012; Ames, Iowa, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein (7) celebrates with teammates Travis Tannahill (80) and Chris Harper (3) after scoring a touchdown against the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The second 2012 Presidential Debate was last night, pitting incumbent President Barack Obama against wily competitor Mitt Romney. Most analysts declared Romney the winner of the first debate, so Obama was expected to step his game up last night because you do NOT want to go down 0-2 in Presidential debates. In honor of the upcoming election and last night’s debate, I wanted to use this week’s Wednesday Rewind to discuss polls.

Don’t worry; I’m not talking about Gallup polls or anything having to do with politics. No, instead I want to discuss one of the most-important polls in college football, the initial BCS Rankings.

Last Sunday, the first BCS rankings of the 2012 season were released and Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame are all 6-0 and ranked one-through-five. LSU, South Carolina, Oregon State, Oklahoma and USC round out the rest of the top 10 (six-through-10, in order) with Oregon State as the only one of the five without a loss.

The BCS Rankings are usually released in week 8 or week 9 after most of the teams have played half of their games. Unlike the preseason AP poll, which is considered one of the most important polls in college football, the first BCS rankings carry more weight as the BCS rankings will actually determine who plays for the BCS Championship.

I looked back on the past eight seasons of initial BCS rankings and compared them to the final BCS rankings before the bowl games. For the sake of today’s discussion, the “final” rankings refer to the final rankings before the bowl games because, let’s be honest, nobody really cares about rankings after the season ends.

Based purely off where teams are ranked, their current record, and the history of the first and last BCS rankings for the past eight seasons, I will make five bold predictions about what we can expect between now and the end of the season.

Bold prediction number 1: Alabama or Florida will play for the BCS Championship.

Since 2004, at least one of the top-2 teams in the initial BCS rankings has gone on to play for the BCS Championship. On three occasions have the rankings remained unchanged. Therefore Alabama and Florida have to feel pretty good about their positioning, ranked No. 1 and No. 2 respectively. If both teams can win the rest of their games, they should be able to maintain their current rankings.

However, with the Gators and the Crimson Tide on opposite sides of the SEC, one of these two teams is bound to lose a game before the season ends – most likely to the other in the SEC Championship. We did see last year that it’s possible for the No. 2 team to lose to No. 1 team in the SEC Championship and still maintain its No. 2 ranking. However, since Alabama and Florida haven’t necessarily distanced themselves from their competitors the way LSU and Alabama did a year ago, I only see one of these teams playing for the BCS Championship.

History would indicate that Alabama would be the team to play in the title game as the 2008 Texas Longhorns are the only team since 2004 that held the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll the same week the first BCS rankings but did not play in for the BCS Championship.

Bold prediction number 2: USC will NOT play for the BCS Championship.

In the preseason AP Poll, USC was ranked No. 1. This lofty ranking brings with it equally-lofty expectations and in the past five seasons, a preseason No. 1 ranking has been almost a death sentence to a team’s hopes to play for a national title.

In 2004 and 2005, USC opened the season ranked No. 1 and held that ranking through the end of the season. in 2006, Ohio State did the same thing. But only once in the past five seasons has the AP preseason No. 1 held the same position in the first BCS rankings. And not since 2006 has the preseason No. 1 team finished the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the AP Poll or the BCS rankings.

The preseason AP Poll is considered one of the most important polls in college football because it provides the first set of rankings and slots teams based on potential and expectations. But in eight seasons, 50 percent of the teams ranked in the preseason AP top-10 were out of the top-10 by midseason.

In the preliminary BCS Rankings, the Trojans are ranked No. 10. They have upcoming games against No. 3 Oregon, No. 5 Notre Dame and a potential Pac-12 Championship game which will most likely also be against a top-10 team. Even if USC can win the rest of its games, it probably won’t be enough to get them into the top-2. Only twice since 2004 has the No. 10 ranked team in the initial BCS standings climbed into the final top-5, in 2011 when Oregon ascended from No. 10 to No. 5 and in 2008 when Florida finished No. 2.

Bold Prediction No. 3: Kansas State will play either Florida or Alabama for the BCS Championship.

You’d assume that with Alabama or Florida losing a game, the team with the next best chance to play for the BCS Championship would be No. 3 Oregon. However, only twice in the past eight seasons has the initial No. 3-ranked team played for the BCS Championship, in 2009 (Texas) and 2004 (Oklahoma) – both teams lost.

Kansas State, on the other hand, is ranked No. 4 and is hoping to become the third team initially ranked No. 4 in the BCS standings to win the championship. Auburn accomplished the feat in 2010 and LSU in 2007. The Wildcats clearly have a lot of work left to do, with games against No. 13 West Virginia this week, No. 17 Texas Tech next week and No. 23 TCU on November 10. But, they now know that if they can win all of those games, they should be ranked as one of the top-2 teams in the country.

Bold Prediction No. 4: There will be at least two undefeated teams in the BCS top-10 at the end of the season and at least three teams with two losses.

There are currently six unbeaten teams in the BCS top-10 and Mississippi State (12), Rutgers and Louisville (15 and 16 respectively) and Cincinnati (21) are the other four undefeated, ranked teams. In six of the past eight seasons, the final BCS rankings have featured at least two undefeated teams and 2007 and 2008 are the only years in which both the final No. 1 and No.2 were not undefeated.

Last season, despite eight unbeaten, top-10 teams in the initial BCS Rankings, only one team was unbeaten at the end and five top-10 teams had two losses. 2010, 2008 and 2004 are the only three years in which fewer than three top-10 teams had two losses.

That means for teams like LSU, South Carolina, Oklahoma and USC, all with one loss and all in the top-10, a second loss doesn’t kill their chances of remaining in the top-10, so long as the loss comes against a quality opponent.
Oct. 13, 2012; Provo, UT, USA; Oregon State Beavers head coach Mike Riley celebrates after beating the Brigham Young Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas C. Pizac-US PRESSWIRE

Bold Prediction No. 5: There will be some adjustments in the rankings but at least six of the current top-10 teams will remain in the top-10 by season’s end.

Earlier, I mentioned that 50 percent of teams ranked in the preseason top-10 were out of the top-10 by mid-season. For the BCS rankings, the odds of staying in the top-10 are a little better greater. In eight seasons, nearly 63 percent of teams ranked in the initial BCS top-10 were also ranked in the top-10 at the end of the season.

2007 featured the most turnover in the top-10 rankings when only four teams maintained a top-10 ranking. That season also saw only four teams undefeated in the top-10 and the only undefeated team in the final rankings was No. 10 Hawaii.

Looking at the current BCS top-10, I would put money on USC, South Carolina and Oklahoma all falling out of the top-10 before the end of the season with Oregon St. also potentially dropping in the rankings.

This weekend, South Carolina faces off against No. 2 Florida and plays No. 19 Clemson on November 24. If South Carolina loses its second game in as many weeks against Florida, it could send the Gamecocks on a downward spiral ad they host SEC foes Tennessee and Arkansas the next two weeks.

Oklahoma travels to South Bend next weekend for a showdown with No. 5 Notre Dame and even if they can upset the Fighting Irish, they still have future matchups against Iowa State, West Virginia and TCU.

I’d expect USC to lose to Oregon, which could hurt the Trojans chances to play for the Pac-12 Championship and if they don’t play in and win that game, I don’t see them staying in the top-10 after a second loss.

Oregon State is the biggest mystery of all the top-10 teams. They have only played five games this season and if they can get past Oregon and get into the Pac-12 Championship, that game still won’t be the regular season finale for the Beavers. Because of Hurricane Isaac, Oregon State’s first game of the season against Nichols State was postponed and is currently schedule for the week after the Pac-12 Championship. If the Beavers lose their conference championship, the game against Nichols State could prove challenging.