FCS Roundtable: Must-Win and High Alert Week 9 Games

September 29, 2012; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Towson Tigers quarterback Grant Enders (14) and running back Terrance West (28) celebrate a touchdown run by West during the fourth quarter of a game against the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Towson 38-22. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Better late than never, a truncated FCS Roundtable installment this week examines the must-win games that highlight Week 9. Were the NCAA Playoffs to commence today, there would be 20 teams in — and 20 or so teams with legitimate beef for being left out. The coming weeks will bounce several of the also-rans from contention, which makes these games the differentiating factors determining pretender and contender.

Joe Suhoski, VBR Productions

I’d like to start on the opposite end of the spectrum for this question, because I don’t think New Hampshire has gotten the credit it deserves. Had they not blown an 18-point lead against Old Dominion, they’d be 7-1 (5-0) in the CAA right now with their lone loss at Minnesota. While no conference game is a “gimme,” their remaining schedule is lighter than most (at Rhode Island, followed by home games against William and Mary and Towson). If things fall their way, they may get a first round bye in the playoffs, and it starts against a winless URI squad.

Having played two FBS teams (and lost), Towson has already reached the four-loss plateau. Without checking years of results, I don’t believe a five-loss FCS team has ever received an at-large bid to the playoffs. They need to win out their last four games, starting on the road against the surging Villanvoa Wildcats. The Tigers will need Terrance West this week to have any chance; the sophomore was held out of the game (coach’s decision).

An important MEAC matchup this weekend is Bethune-Cookman hosting North Carolina Central. Both teams are 5-2 and undefeated in the conference. Considering at-large bids are rarely granted to MEAC teams, the loser of this game puts itself more behind the eight for reaching the playoffs – despite being near the top of the conference.

Todd Davis, JMU Sports Blog

First, we should state this is shaping up to be a year where not a single 7-4 team may get in. 8-3 looks to be the floor this year, so teams better step on the gas.

YSU @ SDSU – Must-win for both teams. Had high hopes for YSU early, but they’re 4-3 and facing a 5-2 SDSU team that still has to play NDSU.

GSU @ Chattanooga – Mocs are 4-3 and if they could pull this one off at home, they really only have a banged-up Wofford team in the way from here on.

Citadel @ Wofford – Citadel has big wins and head-scratching losses in their 4-3 record and will be on the outside looking in unless they take advantage of an injured Terriers team now.

Cal Poly @ Sacramento St. – Could be the only thing between Cal Poly and an undefeated season and a seed in the dance. Sacramento St. is 5-3 with a trip to Bozeman still to come so this is crunch time.

Central Arkansas @ SE Louisiana – Interesting game. SELA is 3-4 overall, but 3-0 in the Southland. With a win, they could be a major bracket-buster for power conference teams with at-large hopes. Probably better for the Southland’s multi-bid hopes if UCA establishes itself here though.

Russell Varner, SouthernPigskin.com

I look at this weekend’s schedule and five teams in particular jump out at me. We will start in the conference I know best, the Southern Conference. Both the Citadel (4-3, 3-2 SoCon) and Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1) find themselves in must-win situations on Saturday. Remember when the Bulldogs were the hottest team in the nation, coming off of upsets of Georgia Southern and Appalachian State? Well the team has fallen on hard times since then, going 1-3 since. They take on Wofford with a chance to go 3-0 against the SoCon’s big three and jumpstart their conference and playoff hopes. The Mocs are the opposite of the Citadel after starting 1-3, they have won their last three contests by an average of two touchdowns. They are now third in the conference – two games back of Georgia Southern –and need as many wins as possible for their playoff hopes, since one came against Division II Glenville State.

As for teams from other conferences, how about Youngstown State (4-3, 1-3 MVFC), who have lost their last three games and dropping from No. 3 to No. 22 in the Sports Network poll. Worst of all, the three losses have come to conference opponents. They need a win in the worst way against South Dakota State.

The next two teams come from the CAA: Towson (3-4, 2-2 CAA) and Delaware (5-2, 2-2). Coming off of their breakthrough season last year, the Tigers have not played up to expectations and their tough schedule now has them fighting for their playoff lives. A win against Villanova would be ideal for the Tigers to try to turn their season around. The Blue Hens’ may only have two losses, but both have come in conference play, which has the team 2.5 games back of first place Villanova and New Hampshire. For Delaware to turn around their conference title hopes, they need a victory against Old Dominion on Saturday.