SEC Preview: What Constitutes Success – SEC West
In college football, managing expectations is everything for coaches. An 8-4 season for a first-year coach can inspire optimism and create a rush to buy season tickets the next season. It can also leave fans convinced that their coach is the wrong person to guide the program to the next level or that the coach has lost his touch.
Of course, the unfairness is that coaches rarely can slow the uptick of said expectations. Exceed where your team was supposed to be and those surrounding the program seek more the next year. Fall below that mark and, well, you won’t be around much longer.
Today we take a look at what constitutes success for each program in the SEC West.
A successful season for Arkansas would be to make a low-level bowl game and reenergize crowds enough to fill Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium with optimism for the future. Mandatory Credit: Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports
Alabama
2012: 13-1, 7-1 SEC; Won BCS National Championship
Even when the Crimson Tide is down, success is defined by sculpting new statues outside Bryant-Denny Stadium. Those statues, of course, are built for coaches who win national championships. This year is no different.
Alabama has won three BCS National Championships in four seasons and has the talent to win a fourth. There are certainly major contributors who must be replaced, but key players such as QB A.J. McCarron and RB T.J. Yeldon remain.
The season sets up nicely for the Tide after the first two games – a neutral-field tilt against Virginia Tech in Atlanta and a road game at Texas A&M. Coach Nick Saban might mention a time or two that only a loss to the Aggies kept Alabama from an undefeated season in 2012.
Potentially tough games against Ole Miss and LSU will both be played at home. Alabama’s only road games after the game at Kyle Field are at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn. None of those will leave Alabama faithful panicking.
What constitutes a successful season? Nothing short of a BCS National Championship. Even an SEC championship with a BCS bowl victory will not be considered a success for Alabama if the season doesn’t end in a confetti shower in Pasadena.
Arkansas
2012: 4-8, 2-6 SEC; No bowl game
This is a great example of one season resetting expectations. Before former coach Bobby Petrino decided to play Sons of Anarchy with a young-20-something he hired to be part of the football support staff on the back of his bike, Arkansas had gone 21-5 over the previous two seasons. Those years ended with a trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Cotton Bowl victory.
With QB Tyler Wilson returning, there were talks of Arkansas finally breaking through in the SEC West. Instead, Petrino’s personal issues led to his dismissal and the program’s unraveling. Interim coach John L. Smith never steadied the ship and the Razorbacks stumbled to a 4-8 season – their worst winning percentage since 1990.
The talent level, specifically on the offensive side of the ball, doesn’t justify high expectations. However, first-year coach Bret Bielema is a great fit to help turn the program around quickly. He built Wisconsin around hard-nosed defenses and physical run games. Arkansas has the ability to live off of those two aspects this season and it might have to do so.
The Razorbacks have four very difficult road games in 2013 – Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. Home games against Texas A&M and South Carolina are certainly no gimmes either, nor is a non-conference game at Rutgers.
What constitutes a successful season? With a difficult schedule, anything above 7-5 during Bielema’s first campaign in Fayetteville should be considered a major success. An above-.500 regular season teamed with a bowl victory would give Arkansas reason to believe the program is trending in the right direction.
Auburn
2012: 3-9, 0-8 SEC; No bowl game
Talk about lowered expectations. Auburn entered 2012 hoping to build off the momentum created during a Chick-fil-A Bowl win over Virginia the previous season. Instead, the Tigers managed an overtime win over Louisiana-Monroe and victories against New Mexico State and Alabama A&M.
There is still some talent on the Plains – some of which was recruited by first-year coach Gus Malzahn when he was Auburn’s offensive coordinator. The first thing Malzahn must do is determine who will be his starting quarterback after the Tigers started three last season.
Not only was Auburn horrible in 2012, it wasn’t even competitive in six of eight SEC losses.
The non-conference slate features potentially tricky games against Washington State and Arkansas State. Auburn should be favored to win both, though. Home games against the two Misisssippi schools, Alabama and Georgia mean not even the league games at Jordan-Hare Stadium will be easy – not that anything is in the SEC West.
What constitutes a successful season? A 7-5 season with a win in a lower-tier bowl game would go a long way toward restoring faith in the Auburn program. Malzahn’s offense is the X-factor here. Gene Chizik’s decision to move to a pro-style offense obviously backfired, largely because the talent in place was recruited for Malzahn’s system. If a quarterback emerges and experienced defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson performs his usual magic (as an assistant, anyway), Auburn could fare as well as 8-4. Of course, simply beating Alabama might also qualify as a success – regardless of record.
LSU
2012: 10-3, 6-2 SEC; Lost Chick-fil-A Bowl
The Tigers have consistently been a top-10 team over the past three years. That isn’t enough in Baton Rouge any more, courtesy of former coach Nick Saban and current coach Les Miles.
When the season starts, LSU fans are ready to accept one outcome – another BCS National Championship. Miles already has one to his credit as well as two additional BCS bids, including a second trip to the BCS National Championship Game.
LSU basically lost an NFL team worth of defensive talent, but the program has proven it reloads instead of rebuilding. A strong run game and QB Zach Mettenberger, with a full year of experience under his belt, can ease any pressure on the defense while the talent eases into new roles.
A tough neutral-field game against TCU (in Arlington, Texas) to start the season won’t be easy. The four-game stretch with road games at Georgia, Mississippi State and Ole Miss with a home game against Florida in the middle will go a long way toward determining the Tigers’ championship dreams. LSU also faces Alabama on the road and Texas A&M at home.
What constitutes a successful season? LSU faithful will settle for nothing less than a BCS national championship. However, with a great deal of turnover and a daunting schedule, 10-2 and an upper-tier bowl game – such as the Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl or Cotton Bowl – would be a relative success. The Tigers could be a very good team and lose three games.
Mississippi State
2012: 8-5, 4-4 SEC; Lost Gator Bowl
Dan Mullen’s team got off to a great start last season and raised expectations by leading the Bulldogs to wins in their first seven games. They then proceeded to lose five of their last six.
This is QB Tyler Russell’s last chance to pull out wins over some of the league’s elite teams. RB LaDarius Perkins should take some weight off Russell’s shoulders and could be one of the best tailbacks in the conference.
A strong defensive line – and especially a good pass rush – will give State a chance to be competitive on the defensive line.
The season opener in Houston against Oklahoma State will present the Bulldogs with a tough task. State gets Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss in Starkville this season, but still has tough road games at South Carolina and at Texas A&M.
What constitutes a successful season? Mississippi State took a step forward last year by beating Auburn and jumping over both the Tigers and Arkansas in the SEC West standings. Of course, no team’s fan base is pleased with standing still. The next step up for the Bulldogs is to beat one of the big three in the division – Texas A&M, LSU or Alabama. A successful season would be a 9-3 record – which put the team in position for a bowl such as the Chick-fil-A Bowl – with a win over one of the big three in the division and a victory over Ole Miss.
Ole Miss
2012: 7-6, 3-5 SEC; Won BBVA Compass Bowl
Hugh Freeze turning in a winning season during his first year was a major improvement for Ole Miss in 2012. Freeze’s offense stole the spotlight and justifiably considering the Rebels averaged more than 30 point per game.
QB Bo Wallace enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2012 and is back to build on the success.
With four of the first five games on the road, the beginning stretch of the Ole Miss schedule will go a long way toward determining the program’s success. Those road games aren’t exactly either, with the Rebels playing at Vanderbilt, Texas, Alabama and Auburn all by the second week of October. Waiting on the other side of that road stretch are home games against Texas A&M and LSU.
If Ole Miss can survive that tough seven-game stretch to start the season, it will have a chance to make up ground during the final five.
What constitutes a successful season? A 7-5 regular season with a win over Mississippi State would be a strong season for the Rebels. With the brutal seven-game stretch to start, Ole Miss could improve and tread water with its record. If Ole Miss plays in a low-level bowl game (think: Liberty Bowl) and has a few big SEC West wins, it would have to be considered a strong season.
Texas A&M
2012: 11-2, 6-2 SEC; Won Cotton Bowl
In one remarkable season, Texas A&M went from having limited expectations in a new conference to wild aspirations during its sophomore year in the SEC.
Heisman Trophy-winning QB Johnny Manziel is back and has already shown a tremendous ability to run coach Kevin Sumlin’s system. The Aggies return a ton of talent on offense as well.
The bigger concern comes on defense, where the entire front seven is a concern headed into 2013.
Of SEC West teams, Texas A&M faces the easiest non-conference slate. The Aggies host Rice, Sam Houston State, SMU and UTEP in games they should win by several touchdowns.
The conference schedule, of course, isn’t as easy. Still, the Aggies get Alabama at home. Their toughest road game comes toward the end of November when A&M travels to LSU.
What constitutes a successful season? Finishing first or second in the SEC West would be the next reasonable step forward. That is easier said than done with a defense in transition. A Week 2 win over Alabama would lead to increased chatter about a division title. An 11-1 or 10-2 season with a trip to a BCS game, the Cotton Bowl or the Capital One Bowl should all be considered successes.