Pac-12 Preview: What Constitutes a Successful Season – Pac-12 South
Utah and QB Travis Wilson hope to return to the postseason in 2013 after missing a bowl game last year. Find out what constitutes a winning season in our Pac-12 Preview. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
After watching superstar program USC slip to the middle of the Pac(-12), a successful season for the entire Pac-12 South would be shifting at least some of the balance of power back from the North.
Four of the six teams – and arguably a fifth depending on how you feel about Utah – are legitimate contenders in the division. The question is does that mean parity or across-the-board mediocrity?
Arizona
2012: 8-5, 4-5 Pac-12; Won New Mexico Bowl
Year 1 under coach Rich Rodriguez brought along pleasant surprises for a program that had just two eight-win seasons since 1998. Everything that went wrong with his offense at Michigan went right immediately in Tucson. QB Matt Scott and RB Ka’Deem Carey emerged among the best in the Pac-12 at their respective positions and propelled the Wildcats to surprising victories over USC, Washington and Oklahoma State.
Now we find out if Arizona can take the next step under Rodriguez a year later. Carey returns, but the Wildcats must find Scott’s replacement – an incomplete task with spring ball in the rearview mirror. Oh, and finding a defense to stop somebody wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
The 2012 Arizona Wildcats will not be remembered as a consistent bunch. It was a team that could drop some better teams – like Oklahoma State – and then lose 49-0 while looking lifeless at Oregon or 66-10 in the debacle at UCLA. This is also a unit that forced overtime at Stanford and nearly took down Oregon State.
This year’s bunch gets a frontloaded conference schedule after three pushovers in the non-conference slate. Four of the Wildcats’ first five Pac-12 games are on the road, including challenging games at Washington and USC that could determine the validity of their “contender” status.
What constitutes a successful season? Certainly Arizona would like to picture itself as a Pac-12 South frontrunner. Remember, though, that this is not a team familiar with that position. A strong first season from Rodriguez means expectations of simply reaching a bowl game have dissipated, but going to a BCS bowl is a bit much of an ask as well. Being in the running for a divisional title on the final day of the season and qualifying for a higher-tier bowl – perhaps the Holiday Bowl – should be viewed as a strong year for this group. Anything else is a bonus.
Arizona State
2012: 8-5, 5-4 Pac-12; Won Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
A brutal four-game stretch in October and November sunk the Sun Devils’ chances at a Pac-12 championship in 2012. Now QB Taylor Kelly has a year of experience and the entire offense has an increased familiarity with second-year coach Todd Graham’s system. Greater expectations should ensue.
In addition to Kelly – and the offense returning top RBs Marion Grice and D.J. Foster – Arizona State boasts one of the league’s top defensive lines, anchored by DT Will Sutton. If this defense, which also features LB Carl Bradford and his 11.5 sacks from a year ago, can live up to expectations, this could be a formidable team and – arguably – the best in the division.
A tough non-conference schedule that includes a home contest against Wisconsin and a neutral-field game against Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas adds difficulty to an already tricky schedule. The Sun Devils also open the Pac-12 slate with a game at league favorite Stanford and another against USC. Arizona State does, however, play two of its three top divisional threats in Tempe. A Nov. 23 road game at UCLA looms as a potentially landscape-shifting matchup.
What constitutes a successful season? Much like rival Arizona, the Sun Devils would love to end their season in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Also like the Wildcats, Arizona State should be happy to step forward in the conference this season. With many key contributors returning, it is reasonable to think Graham could lead his team to the Pac-12 South crown. It shouldn’t be considered a massive disappointment if he falls short. Tying for the league title – regardless of tie-breaker situations – with nine regular-season wins should be considered a successful season.
Colorado
2012: 1-11, 1-8 Pac-12; No bowl game
Well, it can’t get a lot worse for Colorado after a 1-11 campaign in 2012. Then again, that’s what the fans told themselves after Dan Hawkins got fired. Then Jon Embree got his disastrous two-year shot. Only a huge comeback win over Washington State enabled the Buffaloes to avoid a winless season – one that included a loss to FCS team Sacramento State.
Blowout losses in eight of the last 10 games showed Colorado was not making progress and ultimately led to Embree’s dismissal. The Buffaloes beat Washington State by one point and hung within seven points of Utah. Aside from those two games, their closest conference contest came in a 25-point beating at Arizona.
Colorado is certainly capable of losing non-conference games to Colorado State and Fresno State. There is not a single guaranteed conference win on the Buffaloes’ schedule.
What constitutes a successful season? You know how nobody wants to follow a legend? How nobody wants to be the man who follows Tom Osborne or Bear Bryant or (one day) Nick Saban? What Mike MacIntyre faces in Boulder is the antithesis of that phenomenon. Sad as it may be, staying competitive in games would be a step in the right direction. Sure, the Buffaloes would love to get back to a bowl game in 2013. They would also gladly take an embarrassment-free 3-9 or 4-8 record with a few conference victories.
UCLA
2012: 9-5, 6-3 Pac-12; Lost Holiday Bowl
Few believed Jim L. Mora when he entered Los Angeles saying he would help the Bruins recapture the city. Cross-town USC opened the season as the top-ranked team (yay, preseason rankings!) and UCLA hoped simply just to get back to .500.
Mora, with the help of QB Brett Hundley, RB Johnathan Franklin and company on offense, exceeded expectations on his way to guiding UCLA to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Some will point out that the Bruins made the title game the year before under Rick Neuheisel and they would be correct. It should be pointed out, though, that they did so as a 6-6 program with USC ineligible for the division title. The Pac-12 South, minus the Trojans, was a putrid division capable of going toe-to-toe with, say, the now-defunct WAC.
The Bruins should be reasonably strong on defense again, but will need to rely on Hundley and the offense – and hopefully an improved offensive line – to repeat atop the division.
The season doesn’t start easy for UCLA, which opens with a challenging game against Nevada and a tough road test at Nebraska. Back-to-back road games at conference favorites Stanford and Oregon – and a home game against Washington – mean the Bruins play three of the best four teams in the loaded Pac-12 North. The tilts against the Cardinal and Ducks, especially, loom large for UCLA’s title hopes. The Bruins also play at divisional foes Arizona and USC.
What constitutes a successful season? After making it to the Pac-12 Championship Game last year, expectations will continue to increase. A brutal schedule could make repeating the feat especially challenging. Still, with a talented roster featuring a Heisman-level talent in Hundley, UCLA has a chance to continue its assent. Another Pac-12 Championship Game appearance – teamed with a win over hated USC – would be a success, though fans might eye a “neutral-field” home game for the Rose Bowl.
USC
2012: 7-6, 5-4 Pac-12; Lost Sun Bowl
Nobody is more excited to put 2012 behind them than coach Lane Kiffin. Not only did the Trojans start the season as the No. 1 team in the nation and end up losing the Sun Bowl, Kiffin also had to essentially fire his father – noted NFL defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin – in the aftermath. USC AD Pat Haden can say what he likes, but it makes sense to strongly suspect that Kiffin starts the season on the hottest of seats.
The Trojans will have some help on the offensive side of the ball, returning both WR Marqise Lee and RB Silas Redd. Lee is probably the best receiver in the nation. He might need to practice throwing the ball to himself. USC’s quarterback situation is not settled after spring ball. The leading returning triggerman, Max Wittek, has a big-time arm but makes decisions like Lindsay Lohan in her personal life.
The defense should be much better this year. It might need to be, at least early.
USC’s non-conference schedule includes a tougher-than-it-looks game against Utah State and a trip to South Bend to play Notre Dame. The Trojans get Arizona, Stanford and UCLA at home. This is among the more manageable conference schedules in the Pac-12 South. If USC takes advantage, a trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game is certainly possible.
What constitutes a successful season? Expectations never drop too low at USC. Even with scholarship reductions and a tremendously disappointing 2012 season, getting back to the top of the Pac-12 will be on the mind of Trojans fans. That’s probably a bit unrealistic, but they can certainly win the Pac-12 South. Getting into the title game means a one-game shot to become king of league again. It certainly couldn’t come at a better time for Kiffin. USC doesn’t have to win the league to have a strong season, but it needs to win the division – and recapture the Crosstown Gauntlet.
Utah
2012: 5-7, 3-6 Pac-12; No bowl game
Losing seasons and bowl-less winters have not been part of Utah’s blueprint for the last decade. Yet that’s where the Utes found themselves in 2012, largely because of major turmoil at the quarterback position. They should take significant strides back to normal on offense this year, but lose gobs of talent on defense – especially on the defensive line.
In addition to the losses on defense, Utah must replace RB John White with one of many unproven commodities. At least the offensive line appears to be a strength this season.
As usual, the Utes’ schedule includes familiar in-state foes BYU and Utah State. They split the two games last year. Tough home games to start the conference slate – Utah hosts Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford – could determine the team’s fate. The Utes also play Arizona State at home and have road tests at Arizona, USC and Oregon.
What constitutes a successful season? In order to return to the postseason, Utah will need to steal some wins. It is in good position to do so with a few key games in Salt Lake City. Sweeping the fellow Beehive State programs would go a long way toward getting the Utes back into a bowl game. A proud program, it’s hard to say 6-6 with a bowl win is a success. A seven- or eight-win regular season, however, would be a tremendous step forward and should be viewed as a strong season.