Pac-12 Preview: Three Keys To The Pac-12 South

October 27, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Taylor Kelly (10) against the UCLA Bruins at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

ARIZONA WILDCATS

1. Channel The Swarm

In five losses, the Arizona defense gave up a whopping 248 points — one two-point conversion shy of 50 points per game. In only two of those losses — at Oregon and at UCLA — did UA score less than 34 points. Typically, such high totals mean wins. Turn the 35 points scored against Oregon State, 34 against Arizona State and 48 against Stanford into wins, and UA is a 10-win playing for the conference championship.

To call the defense porous would be akin to calling an August day in Tucson a little warm. Jeff Casteel’s unit isn’t without talent, but sorely lacked depth. The Wildcats need to channel some of the tenacity that defined past UA defenses if they are to seriously contend for a Pac-12 South and league title.

2. Ride The Run

If you rolled out the Jump To Conclusions mat when Arizona hired Rich Rodriguez (guilty), you assumed he would bring an almost exclusively run-based offense. But opening the playbook for Matt Scott to use his arm added a whole new dimension to the spread offense that made UA particularly difficult to defend.

Scott’s gone, and who will replace him remains unclear. Fortunately for UA, the nation’s leading rusher is in the backfield. Ka’Deem Carey came just short of the 2000-yard mark in 2012. He gives the offense a foundation, while returning Daniel Jenkins provides a change-of-pace and depth. As the Wildcats find an identity behind a new quarterback early, they will rely heavily on the rush.

3. Hit The Road Running

UA won just one road conference, knocking off Utah late in the season. The Wildcats were much different in the confines of Arizona Stadium than away from it. Two of the Wildcats’ more noteworthy wins a season ago were against conference contenders they face on the road this year: USC and Washington. The Territorial Cup rematch against Arizona State is also away from Tucson.

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

1. Survive The Gauntlet

Arizona State faces arguably the single most difficult four-game stretch of any team in the nation:

• Sept. 14 vs. Wisconsin

• Sept. 21 at Stanford

• Sept. 28 vs. USC

• Oct. 5 vs. Notre Dame in Cowboys Stadium

Just two of those four contests have bearing on the Pac-12 race, but such a challenging period can rattle a team’s confidence and derail its season. A 2-2 record in that stretch, given one win is over a conference foe, keeps the Pac-12 South title within reach.

2. Win A Biggie

ASU finished 8-5 in 2012, but just two of those wins came against FBS teams with a record over .500. Granted, those two wins were significant: the Territorial Cup and the bowl game. Still, if the 2013 Sun Devils are to be legitimate Pac-12 contenders, they must find ways to win games against opponents like USC, UCLA or Oregon State. All three knocked off the Sun Devils a year ago.

Washington and Stanford are also on the docket. Add the season finale Duel in the Desert, and A-State is looking at a six-game stretch of conference match-ups in which it can go no worse than 4-2 if it has any shot of reaching the Pac-12 title game. And even 4-2 is being generous.

3. Dictate Tempo

The Sun Devils were at their best when stepping on the gas of Mike Norvell’s high octane offense. In eight wins, ASU scored 37 or more points seven times. Compare that with the Sun Devils’ five losses, four of which they failed to score more than 21.

ASU boasts an excellent defense capable of forcing opponents off the field quickly. In the Territorial Cup, the Sun Devils parlayed turnovers and forced punts into points. Losses to Missouri and Oregon State saw ASU squander opportunities. Even in its defeat against Oregon, the Sun Devils had early chances that they could not cash in. The offense’s ability to capitalize on the ensuing possessions is paramount to victory.

COLORADO BUFFALOES

1. Build Confidence

Losing is a self-perpetuating problem. Mounting losses rob teams of their confidence, which manifests in more losses. Colorado’s season got off to the wrong start when the Buffs dropped very winnable games to Colorado State and Sacramento State.

CU opens 2013 with a similar slate, against CSU and Central Arkansas. Week 3 brings co-Mountain West champion Fresno State, which annihilated the Buffs last year. Welcoming the Bulldogs to Folsom Field with a 2-0 record could turn the tables in CU’s favor; Boulder is a much different environment than the Valley. With some belief, and a distinct advantage, who knows? Maybe CU can start its new era 3-0 heading into conference play.

2. Mile High Edge

Boulder’s elevation can be a major home field advantage, but only if the Buffs can capitalize. Christian Powell’s return to the backfield gives Mike MacIntyre a solid foundation for establishing a consistent ground game. Hit defenses with a steady dose of Powell’s power, while introducing the change-of-pace speed Tony Jones provides, and CU can establish some ball control. Keep opposing defenses on the field and gasping for that thin air can translate into a few stolen wins in conference play.

3. Baby Steps

Colorado did not go from college football powerhouse to the worst season in program history overnight. CU began a gradual decline that began after the 2002 Fiesta Bowl. Certainly the Dan Hawkins and Jon Embree eras accelerated the process, which last year hit rock bottom, but it was still a decade-long process.

MacIntyre won’t turn a 1-11 team into a conference championship contender in his first year. But he does have a track record for working minor miracles, turning a San Jose State program on the brink of extinction into a top 25 finisher. SJSU built confidence through moral victories early on, playing UCLA, Nevada, Utah State and Louisiana Tech close. The Spartans then cashed in with two wins over Fresno State and Navy to close out the year. The momentum carried over into 2012.

UCLA BRUINS

1. Run The Table Before Oct. 19 and After Oct. 26

UCLA faces a treacherous schedule, including back-to-back road trips to Stanford and Oregon on Oct. 19 and Oct. 26. Should the Bruins lose those two, which many Pac-12 teams before them have, a third conference championship game appearance is still feasible; realistic even.

Should the Bruins handle business against Pac-12 South opponents Arizona, Arizona State and USC — all of which UCLA beat in 2012 — Jim Mora’s team is looking good. The possible kicker is a mid-November, Friday night match-up with Washington in the Rose Bowl.

2. Platoon for Franklin

Johnathan Franklin was a Doak Walker Award finalist in 2012 and catalyst of the Bruin offense. He stood out in a Pac-12 flush with running back talent, thus expecting just one Bruin to seamlessly replace his production isn’t necessarily realistic.

UCLA does have a bevy of candidates to take on the 282 carries Franklin made a season ago, including Jordon James, Paul Perkins and, if he recuperates from injury, Damien Thigpen. The Bruins’ best bet for replicating Franklin’s presence is cycling through a platoon of ball carriers.

3. Hundley for Heisman

As Brett Hundley, so go the Bruins. That will be the theme of 2013, as the redshirt sophomore quarterback settles into his second year running Noel Mazzone’s offense. Hundley is a talented, two-way play maker and could take on a bigger role with Franklin out of the lineup.

Carrying a heftier workload means Hundley will be expected to put up big numbers. If UCLA is winning, Hundley will be in the thick of the Heisman race. Key for him is staying upright; he was one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the nation.

USC TROJANS
Apr 13, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans receiver Marqise Lee (9) carries the ball in the spring game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1. Finish

The Sun Bowl debacle notwithstanding, USC was within 11 points of each of its five regular season losses. The Trojans were outscored in the fourth quarter of three of those defeats (Stanford, Oregon, Arizona), and were either tied or leading going into the final 15 minutes of two (Arizona and Stanford). Combine those circumstances with the missed opportunities in the Notre Dame loss, and USC is teetering oh-so-close to winning 9 or 10 regular season games and playing in the Pac-12 championship.

2. Don’t Become One-Dimensional

Marqise Lee was outstanding in 2012 and deserving of the Heisman Trophy consideration he was given. Even so, the Trojans were better in 2011 when Matt Barkley was spreading the wealth with Lee and Robert Woods, while Curtis McNeal was providing a spark out of the backfield.

Barkley’s replacement could easily use the talented Lee as a crutch, especially with Woods gone. But involving Nelson Algholor to spread out defenses is vital to freeing up space for Silas Redd.

3. Avoid Distraction

Last season devolved into a circus for USC. Driving the clown car was Lane Kiffin, whose various public gaffes exacerbated criticisms of a disappointing team. The Trojans will not be preseason No. 1; that certainly helps dim the spotlight somewhat.

Still, USC is USC. This is one of the most storied programs in college football, located in the world’s media epicenter. Attention is going to come, but it’s crucial to avoid the silly, avoidable attention that accentuated the disastrous 2012 campaign.

UTAH UTES

1. Trust In Travis

Quarterback instability has plagued Utah each of the last couple seasons. Jordan Wynn’s abrupt retirement and the continued struggles of Jon Hays forced Travis Wilson into the starting job earlier than expected, but Wilson showed glimpses of being the answer eluding UU since Brian Johnson’s departure.

Performances against UCLA and Arizona proved Wilson can play with the division’s better teams. The addition of Dennis Erickson to the staff should bring out more of Wilson’s abilities. He’s similarly skilled as Erickson’s last quarterback at Arizona State, Brock Osweiler.

2. Capitalize

Utah often struggled to score points. Yet, examining box scores shows in losses to UCLA, Arizona and USC, the Utes were not without opportunities.

Take the UCLA loss. UU gained 319 total yards, Travis Wilson completed 23-of-33 passes, the Utes turned it over just once…and all the had to show for it were 14 points. Against USC, the Ute defense played a solid first three quarters, but failed to exploit early opportunities.

With the team’s bowl aspirations slipping away in late November, Arizona came to town. The Wildcats gave up 449 total yards, but Utah could muster just 21 points.

It’s a simple concept: put the ball in the end zone. And it’s the key for Utah turning around.

3. Steal Some at Home

Five of the seven teams visiting Rice-Eccles Stadium in 2013 won at least eight games: Utah State, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State and Oregon State. Of those five, all but the Cardinal beat Utah in 2012; because the two didn’t play each other.

Returning to the postseason has to be the Utes’ goal in this pivotal, third Pac-12 season. In order to do so, it’s imperative Utah wins no fewer than four home games.