Heisman Top 25: No. 13 Ka’Deem Carey

November 10, 2012; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats running back Ka

Only 76 players in the history of college football have earned the designation of Heisman Trophy winners. First awarded in 1935, the Heisman Trophy is considered the sport’s pinnacle of individual achievement.

SaturdayBlitz.com is tracking the race to the 78th Heisman Trophy throughout the 2013 college football season via the Heisman Top 25. Every week throughout the season, we are tracking the progress of the contenders, both their on-field impact and media presence.

Last July at Pac-12 Media Day, I asked Rich Rodriguez to identify the potential breakout stars of his first season as Arizona Wildcats head coach. Without hesitation, the first name he mentioned was running back Ka’Deem Carey.

The sophomore-to-be was a major recruiting coup for then-head coach Mike Stoops. Carey was a standout at nearby Canyon del Oro High School, but keeping highly touted, local prospects in Tucson was long a struggle. Former USC offensive lineman Kris O’Dowd comes to mind.

Carey saw opportunities in his true freshman campaign, though they were limited. He spent much of the 2011 season as a third and sometimes fourth option, behind senior Keola Antolin, Daniel Jenkins and H-back Taimi Tutogi.

Rodriguez came to Tucson and saw Carey as a perfect fit for the coach’s uptempo offense. He called Carey a breakout star with such conviction on that July day in Hollywood, it was hard not to believe him. But just how much of a star turn Carey would have certainly didn’t occur to me.

Few could have predicted that he would become the first Arizona player to lead the nation in rushing since Art Luppino in the mid-1950s, flirting with the 2000-yard mark in the process. Carey returns for a third season as the undisputed focal point of the Wildcat offense — an offense that averaged better than 38 points per game a season ago.

How Ka’Deem Carey Wins The Heisman

Rodriguez’s system is conducive to gaudy numbers. The offense worked so fluidly last season in large part because of the veteran savvy of fifth-year senior Matt Scott. He’s gone, leaving UA to break in a new quarterback. That might seem like an opportunity for defenses to load up on Carey, but the Wildcats’ new snap-taker gets a three-game introductory period of FCS Northern Arizona, UNLV and UT-San Antonio then a bye week before jumping into Pac-12 play at Washington.

Once UA enters the conference slate, the quarterback should be up to speed, which keeps opposing defenses honest and opens more opportunities for Carey. Last season, he was spectacular against Pac-12 competition, averaging 157 yards per game in the league for a little over 1400 yards. If he can either enter league play with 500 yards against a soft non-conference schedule, or improve his Pac-12 output by about 20 yards per game, Carey has a legitimate shot of reaching 2,000 yards.

There have been just 14 2000-yard rushers in college football. Carey’s 1929 last season is the closest any have come since Donald Brown in 2008, and a trio of Ray Rice, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith in 2007. Interestingly, none of the four were Heisman finalists, let alone recipients. But all four were from conferences held in lower regard than the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 or Pac-12.

And, excluding the more recent entries into the 2,000-Yard Club, five of the remaining 10 won the Heisman (Rashaan Salaam, Barry Sanders, Ricky Williams, Mike Rozier, Marcus Allen). Of the rest, all (Troy Davis, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson) but Texas Tech’s Byron Hanspard were finalists.

So 2,000 is Carey’s magic number, but precedent says that to win, his team must meet a certain win threshold. The last two winners have done so without reaching BCS bowls, but Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel played for teams that won nine and 10 regular season games. Assuming nine is the minimum — the bare minimum — that would mark UA’s single season win high since 1998.

Statistical Overview

2012 statistics

• 1929 yards/303 carries (6.4 ypc)

• 23 touchdowns

• 36 receptions/303 yards

• 1 receiving touchdown

Compared To Past Heisman Winners

Ricky Williams, 1998: The 1998 season is once again relevant to Carey’s Heisman candidacy, as it was in that campaign Williams became the last 2000-yard rusher to also win the Heisman Trophy. That points to a decided shift in voter trends, as quarterbacks have dominated the Heisman Trophy in the last decade-plus. That certainly works against Carey.

But, Carey has shown an ability to take on a hefty workload as Williams did in ’98. He has a similar downhill rushing style, and is an effective receiver. Williams surpassed the century mark on his way to the Heisman; Carey reached 300 yards in the passing game last year.

Mike Rozier, 1983: The Nebraska Cornhuskers star gained admission to both the Heisman House and 2,000-Yard Club in ’83, breaking off a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry. Rozier flourished in Tom Osborne’s option offense, much in the same way Carey thrives in Rodriguez’s. Now, averaging nearly 8 yards per carry is an impossibly high bar to set — of the nation’s elite rushers, Dri Archer was the only running back to surpass 7 ypc.

And Carey presumably won’t have a Heisman candidate quarterback off to which, as Rozier had in Turner Gill. Still, Rodriguez’s offense is predicated on the quarterback making plays. If Scott’s replacement can adequately draw defensive attention away from Carey, the gains he’ll make are substantial.

Highlights