Big Ten Preview: Three Keys To Success In The Leaders Division
By Kyle Kensing
Nov 17, 2012; University Park, PA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Cameron Coffman (2) rolls out of the pocket in front of Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Deion Barnes (18) during the second quarter at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
1. Keep the momentum going
Penn State opened 2012 and a four-year era of NCAA sanctions with an ominous tone, dropping consecutive games to Ohio and Virginia. After settling in though, the Nittany Lions finished 8-2, capping the season by knocking off eventual Rose Bowl participant Wisconsin.
The UW win had the feel of a bowl game for PSU, and coaches often tout the value of a bowl win for building to the next season. Bill O’Brien has given the Lion faithful reason to believe, both on the field and the recruiting trail.
Carrying that over into the next two seasons is critical to the post-sanction era.
2. Reestablish the run
For as good as Matt McGloin proved to be under O’Brien, a concerning statistic for the Penn State offense was its run game regression. The Nittany Lions averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and ranked No. 83 on the ground nationally. Obviously the departure of Silas Redd negatively impacted the Lion ground attack, but the two-man backfield of Zach Zwinak and Akeel Lynch is capable of picking up the slack.
3. Steal wins
Penn State scored some impressive wins last season in a spoiler role. Many dismissed the program, particularly after an 0-2 start. No longer does O’Brien’s program have the element of surprise. Penn State is still a big-time opponent for most in the Big Ten, particularly the conference championship contenders.
PSU draws an unfavorable slate, seeing Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road in the division, with Michigan, Nebraska and Minnesota comprising its Legends crossovers. Matching last season’s six-win threshold will be an uphill climb. The Lions must steal a win or two in a game that they will be underdogs.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
1. Avoid the mid-game letdown
Purdue outscored opponents in first and fourth quarters last season. Start strong, end strong; seems like a recipe for success, right? Well, not when the second and third quarters are as hard on a team as they on the Boilers.
Opponents outscored Purdue by a combined 49 points in the middle frames. In seven losses, that total was 81 points, more than 11 per game.
2. Hunting for an Archer
November 3, 2012; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Purdue Boilermakers running back Akeem Hunt (11) runs with the ball in the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ross Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports
Last season at Kent State, Darrell Hazell won 11 games and came mere plays from winning the MAC championship. Driving the Golden Flashes’ astounding turnaround was do-everything back Dri Archer. Archer averaged nearly a first down every time he carried the ball, was a vital component of the KSU passing game and a terror to opposing return defenses.
Hazell has a potential Dri Archer at Purdue in Akeem Hunt. He was Purdue’s No. 2 rushing option behind departed Akeem Shavers, but ripped off an impressive 8 yards per carry when his number was called. Hunt was also used some as a receiver, averaging a reception a game and scoring two touchdowns.
To complete the package, he was an effective kick returner. Hunt brought one back to the house, giving him the rare trifecta of scoring methods. Quarterback Rob Henry will likely have to rely on Hunt heavily with Shavers and Antavian Edison gone.
3. Stay afloat in the season’s first half
Purdue plays three of its four home, conference games after Halloween. The Boilermakers also see their most navigable stretch in the season’s final month, taking on Iowa, Illinois and Indiana teams that combined for just 10 wins in 2012. They also host an Ohio State that they have given fits in recent years during that run.
A strong finish booked Purdue a bowl game last season — it won three straight to close out the season — and a similar conclusion is likely necessary to reach the postseason in Hazell’s debut campaign. The home stretch is only for a bowl if Purdue can steal some from a murderer’s row early. Here’s Purdue’s opening month-and-a-half:
Aug. 31, at Cincinnati (10-game winner, co-Big East champion in 2012)
Sept. 14, vs. Notre Dame (12-game winner, BCS runner-up)
Sept. 21, at Wisconsin (Big Ten champion)
Sept. 28, vs. Northern Illinois (12-game winner, Orange Bowl participant)
That’s three opponents coming off BCS bowl appearances before the campaign is even a month old. Then the Boilers get Nebraska, Michigan State and Ohio State to follow. Amid their opening eight games, the Boilermakers must find ways to steal three games.
WISCONSIN BADGERS
Dec 1, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Melvin Gordon (25) runs by Nebraska Cornhuskers safety Daimion Stafford (3) during the Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
1. Don’t hold back on the uppercut
Like a boxer delivering punishing jabs to set up the devastating uppercut, Wisconsin was particularly adept at using its multifaceted and unrelenting running game to soften up opponents. Then, passing scores were delivered like an uppercut that KO’d defenses.
Scott Tolzien was adept at delivering a big blow at just the right moment. Russell Wilson did that and more in his one season in Madison. The Badger offense struggled last season without a quarterback who could fill that role. Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien did not pan out, Joel Stave dealt with injuries and Curt Phillips had to shake off the rust of missing more than a year of action.
New head coach Gary Andersen hired journeyman offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, a move that under most circumstances I wouldn’t like. But Ludwig’s conservative style could actually play well in Madison, given how flush the Badger roster is with great running backs. James White and Melvin Gordon will jab away. It’s up to Stave and Phillips to throw the timely haymaker, and Ludwig to know the right time to call it.
2. Give the defense run support
In six losses last season, Wisconsin’s defense allowed just 20.1 points per game. Take away the 30 points it gave up to Nebraska, and the Badgers surrendered all of 15.2 points per game. In losses.
To put into perspective of just how remarkable that is, those five games would have ranked UW No. 7 nationally in scoring defense — coincidentally just ahead of Andersen’s Utah State team — yet the Badgers would have been 0-5. To use another analogy from a different support, the Badger defense was a pitcher throwing a two-hit, one-run game but the offense was batting sub-Mendoza Line.
Key No. 1, regaining its passing touch, ties into the above.
3. Avoid the upset
Wisconsin’s three straight Rose Bowl appearances may be something of an afterthought with Bret Bielema gone and Ohio State boasting such an impressive roster. Nevertheless, a fourth is not out of the question. UW faces perhaps the easiest road to the Big Ten championship game of any team in the conference.
The Badgers avoid Michigan and Nebraska out of the Legends Division and get Penn State and Northwestern at home. Win those games in Camp Randall and pull off the upset of Ohio State, and Andersen has a clear road map for Indianapolis — assuming UW doesn’t slip up in road games against Illinois, Iowa or Minnesota.