Not-Quite-Predictions, Part Three: Ohio State Will Not Stay In The Top 5

Nov 17, 2012; Madison, WI, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes defensive lineman Jonathan Hankins (52) and wide receiver Michael Thomas (83) celebrate their overtime victory over the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Ohio State defeated Wisconsin 21-14. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

It wouldn’t be August without the yearly commentator predictions. However redundant or nonsensical the analysis coming across the airwaves or plethora of online content, the massive guessing game does hold importance each season. For starters, it gives fans a bit of an idea on where teams sit against the rest of the country. It’s a bit of a who’s who exercise of the college football world.

No matter how far-fetched some prophecies sound, it has always been a fun, gearing-up tool for the upcoming season. The prognoses within this series may or may not come true, and there might be some of you who completely disagree, but that is the beauty of watching the weeks unfold. All is unknown at this point. Here is part two in a five-part series to get you ready for Saturdays in the fall.

 Part One on Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd.

 Part Two on Alabama’s three-peat chances .

OHIO STATE WILL NOT STAY IN THE TOP 5

The Ohio State Buckeyes had a sloppy yet undefeated season in 2012. With wins over Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan by a combined 23 points, sloppy may not even be the proper description. A postseason ban rendered the Buckeyes’ undefeated run somewhat moot, but they were able to stay in the national spotlight with the addition of head coach Urban Meyer.

A No. 2 ranking in the AP preseason Top 25 was inevitable. Ohio State has the prior head SEC king in charge, and with a 12-0 2012 to its credit, certain writers are just dying to push the Nick Saban-Urban Meyer BCS championship narrative. OSU will more than likely be hyped as national title contenders each year Meyer has the reins, but can we at least wait a couple of years for a proven track record before claiming it’s at championship level?

Urban Meyer has wrangled up back-to-back top five recruiting classes, and his impact on the program already is undeniable. Immediately, Meyer found himself as the center of attention even among coaches in the Big 10, and hasn’t done much since to secure a spot in a social gathering of other coaches within the conference. Back in February, Meyer said, “Our whole conversation [at the Big Ten coaches meeting] needs to be about ‘how do we recruit?’

Translation: Hey Big 10, step your game up.
Aug 2, 2013; Canton, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer during the 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinement at Fawcett Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
As long as Meyer is in Columbus, we will have plenty of time to see his Buckeyes at the top. It just won’t be in 2013. Going back to last year, needing overtime at home to beat a 6-7 Purdue, and getting involved in a shootout with Indiana doesn’t scream championship contender. Factor in the 4.6 average win margin against conference foes Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan and the ugliness is on full display.

All that matters is the win, but does that argument hold water when the Big 10 is considered so weak top to bottom?

The defensive unit was ranked No. 6 in total defense, No. 11 in passing defense and No. 6 in scoring defense within the conference. They did a great job at stopping the run in particular, but giving up a bit over 29 points a game to ranked opponents will not propel them to elite status. The defense as a whole is a big question mark with a young corps replacing the entire front four. Now, this is where the strength of Meyer’s recruiting will shine in the near future, but it is hard to put much stock in a defense that was inconsistent last year and has to replace much of the unit.

The offense was certainly unpolished, but still accomplished being 10th in the nation in rushing, and Heisman candidate Braxton Miller returns for what we expect to be another big season, so the firepower is there offensively. This unit might be near the top in the nation. An extremely deep backfield, behind an experienced line spells disaster for the Big 10.

There are potentially three losses on the conference schedule. Two road games against Northwestern and Michigan, along with a home game against Wisconsin could trip up the undefeated title hopes. The bottom line is the Buckeyes should win 10 games and make a Rose Bowl appearance this season, but the national championship talk is a bit premature.

This Buckeyes’ defense will causes plenty of nightmares in the coming years and the offense should be at the top nationally in 2013. However, with a prediction that just about every other preseason top 10 team will finish with stronger resumes than OSU, this will not be a top 5 finish in 2013.