What We Know – Missouri
November 3, 2012; Gainesville FL, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback James Franklin (1) throws the ball during the first quarter against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Over the next few weeks, we will start taking a look at the SEC teams and discuss the apparent strengths and weaknesses of them as the 2013 season nears.
The idea is to identify what we “know” – as much as we can “know” anything about a season that has yet to start. We will also examine what we think we know, what we don’t know and when we might have answers to the biggest questions.
Missouri Tigers
What We Know
Coach Gary Pinkel’s fate is tied to the play of QB James Franklin – Two years ago, this would have fallen far more in the “Know” category. We “knew” coming into last year that Franklin had the legs to prolong plays and did enough with his arm to make defenses pay. That is, until he saw SEC defenses. Granted, Franklin spent most of last season injured, hurt or both. Still, his play suffered and devolved to the point that he didn’t officially “win” the rights to QB1 until last week. In the end, Pinkel still knew Franklin gave him the best chance to win – and likely to save his job. Franklin, now healthy, still has the versatility to be dangerous as a runner or to simply keep plays alive. His accuracy has never been overly impressive, but perhaps two years as a starter have helped him gain a better gauge on how to make specific throws. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a senior quarterback took tremendous steps forward in his last go-around. Pinkel needs to hope his pupil can be the version that led Missouri to an 8-5 record in 2011 – or a better version. The second-longest-tenured coach in the SEC enters the 2013 season on the hottest seat in the conference. A 6-6 season could be enough, but not if the Tigers don’t show significant steps forward toward the teams holding them down in the SEC East. Pinkel built the Missouri program around cultivating talented quarterbacks and riding them to higher expectations at a place that traditionally had none. He became known for producing strong players at the position, such as Brad Smith, Chase Daniel and Blaine Gabbert. It seems fitting that Pinkel’s career hinges on the position once more.
What We Think We Know
The return of RB Henry Josey could give the Tigers an even stronger ground game than they had last year – Nearly two years after suffering a truly gruesome knee, Josey is back. Early indications are that he will be at full speed, which is a true indication about just how spectacular modern medicine has become. Josey rushed for 1,168 yards while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in 2011. He also scored 9 TDs two seasons ago. When he tore up his knee in a game against Texas, Josey led the Big 12 in rushing and ranked fifth nationally. Josey gave Franklin a perfect partner in the read-option and hopes to serve that role again after fighting so hard to get back on the field. RB Kendial Lawrence finished as a 1,000-yard rusher last season, though the offense never truly got on track. Lawrence is gone now and Josey returns, looking to pick up where he left off.
This year’s offensive line will be far more battle-tested – “Battle-tested,” yes. Better? We will see. Pinkel made the decision to limit physicality in practices because of how beaten up his team – specifically his offensive line – was even before the season began last year. Still, four players who made regular starts return. The line needs to be a better version of the one that sometimes seemed overmatched in the SEC. Considering how often Missouri runs its offense out of the shotgun, the biggest concern comes at center. Evan Boehm has been inconsistent with his snaps, having good days and bad days. In the SEC, bad days in the snap exchange mean terrible days on the scoreboard. Missouri is not a good enough team to give away plays – much less possessions. The Tigers need to show more toughness along the line than they did a year ago. The program isn’t likely to ever be a ground-and-pound team under Pinkel, but it needs to be capable of running at teams more so than it has been in the recent past.
What We Don’t Know
How can the Tigers replace the production of DT Sheldon Richardson? – Considering programs and what else they had/have at the position, this might be one of the biggest losses in the conference. Richardson’s play earned him all-SEC honors a year ago because he absolutely dominated at times in his lone season in Columbia. Someone will man his position, but it’s unlikely anyone will “replace” Richardson. DT Matt Hoch started opposite him all season, though he doesn’t possess the God-given ability Richardson had. Hoch enjoyed a decent season, but needs to be even bigger this season. Lucas Vincent seems the leading contender to take over Richardson’s spot. The Columbia Tribune’s David Morrison noted after a scrimmage this week that freshman Josh Augusta might be ready to help immediately. The best bet to fill some of the statistical void left by Richardson is likely DE Kony Ealy, a talented player off the edge who seems destined to take the next step this season. When Will We Know? Put down “Vanderbilt” for this one. If the Tigers can go toe-to-toe with the Commodores in the trenches on the road, they will earn some respect league-wide.
Can the Missouri WRs – led by Dorial Green-Beckham – live up to their considerable hype this season? – T.J. Moe is gone, but the Tigers return plenty of talent. This is an interesting year for Green-Beckham in particular. Remember, he was the No. 1 prospect coming out of high school according to numerous scouting services. Green-Beckham played well at times last year but was inconsistent – as are most true freshmen. The unfortunate part about getting such great publicity coming out of high school is that it comes with enormous expectation. Fair or not, anything shy of a “good” season in 2013 would likely start the “bust” conversation – especially if the drops that have emerged during the preseason continue. DGB has all the tools to be a star, but it would be nice to see him deliver on them the way Maryland WR Stefon Diggs did immediately. It shouldn’t just be Green-Beckham in the spotlight, though. Several talented receivers give Franklin options. Marcus Lucas, who led the team in receptions and yardage last season, is the best of the bunch. L’Damian Washington, another experienced player, was the big receiving star in the most recent scrimmage. Darius White is also capable of making big plays, though he has been inconsistent through August camp. When Will We Know? It will be obvious who is and is not ready to take the next step by the time the Tigers emerge from their amazingly blah non-conference schedule. Missouri opens with four consecutive non-conference games before playing eight straight SEC opponents.
Will the defense make enough plays to put the Tigers back into a bowl game? – It could all hinge on CB E.J. Gaines, arguably the most important player on the entire team. Gaines has proven himself to be solid, but not the absolute game-changer he likely needs to be for the defense. The defensive line, as noted above, is a huge question mark aside from Ealy and, on the whole, the Tigers must fill five defensive positions, including two thirds of its linebackers. LB Andrew Wilson will have to shoulder a heavy burden as the Tigers go through what could be some early growing pains at the position. On paper, the secondary replaces two starters, but “new” starters S Matt White and CB Randy Ponder actually do have experience. When Will We Know? The best bet would be after the Vanderbilt game. If the Tigers win that game after starting out 4-0 – only a deceivingly tricky game at Indiana should realistically play a threat to that – then they should be well on their way to the postseason again.