Red River Showdown, Auburn at Mississippi State Highlights Week 7 College Football Vegas Bets and Spread Advice


Now that is what I call a college football weekend! With so many upsets on Saturday, the underdogs were cashing in big time not only in the spread but winning straight up. So much so that Vegas is taking notice about where and when an upset might occur in both a rivalry game and a higher ranked team going into a hostile environment and coming out unscathed. In the new Playoff Era, Final Four Preseason Favorites like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Oregon don’t have the luxury of losing another game and hoping that the committee looks their way. Expect those teams, whose lofty expectations might have come down a bit, to come out in the next few weeks with fire and intensity and a little Vegas Value. And those that beat them: Ole Miss, TCU, and Arizona, to have a little wedded bliss hangover. Or should I say, Wedded Blitz Hangover? Did you like the Upset Special in its Inaugural Saturday? We scoured the World Wide Web in search of one analyst who didn’t say, ‘The Tide are going to crush the Rebels Saturday afternoon.’ 1-0 Upset Special. It’s why we’re staying in Mississippi this week on that pick. The Blitz is currently at 20-15 on the year and 6-4 last week but more importantly, 13-7 in the last 2 weeks. With that in mind the Blitz did find some soft lines that may be appealing to you. Take what you can from our college football Vegas bets and spread advice this week.

Saturday Morning Winners

11 Oklahoma vs Texas at Texas State Fair

You know the rivalry. The hatred. All set against the back drop of the Texas State Fair in Dallas. Half the Cotton Bowl in burnt orange, half in crimson. Oklahoma’s undefeated season came to a screeching halt in Fort Worth last week against TCU while Texas has been struggling to find an offensive rhythm of any sorts that has seen them go to 2-3 on the year. A defeat for the Sooners would likely knock them out of the Playoff race and most likely out of Big 12 contention since I don’t believe Baylor is losing twice in conference this year. A loss for the Horns, with road games at Kansas State and Texas Tech coming up, would have them fighting for a bowl spot at 6 wins for the remainder of the year. This line started at (-14.5) for Oklahoma and has remained steady. Let’s be clear here: OU QB Trevor Knight is in Identity Crisis. Is he a running QB? Is he a drop back passer? Either way they were exposed last week by the Horned Frogs but on the flip side of the field, Texas has no offense. Where does that lead? (-14.5) is a lot of points in a rivalry game but I think Oklahoma will revert back to an eclectic style of offense in order to keep its status quo in the 1st half. It has to.

The Pick? Oklahoma (-8) 1st Half

13 Georgia at 23 Missouri

Georgia begins a road stretch in Columbia, Missouri which has them not seeing any home games in Athens for 42 days when Auburn comes to town on November 15th. Georgia has lost their last 4 games on the road against ranked opponents and stumbled mightily the last time they were in Columbia…South Carolina against the Gamecocks. But it’s a different scene in Mizzou land, one where the last time the Tigers took the field at home saw them lose to a Big Ten team in the Indiana Hoosiers. So with those two issues in mind: Georgia’s inability to win against ranked opponents on the road and Missouri’s suspect appearance at home makes us look at the total in this game over the spread, which has Georgia as a (-3) favorite. With both teams looking for a foothold in the SEC East, this one could come down to the defensive stops, which will employ the punter even more so for field position. I see both teams in the 20’s, maybe a 28-24 game, which has this contest going under with a stated Total of 62.

The Pick? Under 62

Undervalued Dog

USC at 10 Arizona

USC isn’t ranked. The Trojans lost to Arizona State last Saturday on a Hail Mary in which none of the USC players attempted to knock down the Sun Devils’ pass. 38-34. They’ve looked lackluster in 3 out of 5 games and still won against Stanford but mailed in a loss at Boston College, who lost to Colorado State. Arizona on the other hand has learned to win tight ball games, is 5-0 and 2-0 in conference, but more importantly, 1-0 in games decided by Hail Mary’s in their vic over California. The last time the Wildcats took the field they dismantled the #2 Oregon Ducks in Eugene as (+23) underdogs, winning straight up 31-24. So much to dismay and disarray did I have to go to 2 separate sites to see that yes, USC is actually favored in this game, even though it’s at Arizona. Why no love to AZ Vegas? This line actually started at (-2.5) and has gone up to (-3) in the Trojans favor. Now I do think it’ll be a one score game, but in Arizona’s favor.

The Pick?

Arizona (+3)

Afternoon Winner

9 TCU at 5 Baylor

After coming off their biggest win ever in their Big 12 era over Oklahoma, Coach Gary Patterson’s TCU Horned Frogs roll into Waco Saturday afternoon with aspirations of flipping the script on the Bears. The Frogs want that 5 ranking that Baylor has. The spotlight that has so far eluded them vaulted them from a fringe Top 25 team, squarely into the Top 10 in just one week. But is it too soon to start making reservations for the Playoffs or even a Big 12 Title? Was Baylor a little underwhelming last week in Austin even though they won 28-7, covering the (-14.5) bestowed upon them? For the most part TCU looks like the menace that it should be. Frightening on defense and true duel threat Trevone Boykin on offense, this TCU team has loftier goals than to just beat Oklahoma. But Baylor has seen this before, heck their defense sees it every practice when QB Bryce Petty goes from the shotgun. The crowd and the fact that TCU might be suffering from that aforementioned Wedded Blitz Hangover from the week before after a big victory has our decision skewed in Baylor’s favor. This line started at (-11) Baylor but has gone down significantly in the past day to TCU’s favor with the Frogs getting (+8.5) love. Look to Baylor to get up by 2 to 3 TD’s and stay there throughout the game.

The Pick? Baylor (-8.5)

The Primetime Pick

3 Ole Miss at 14 Texas A&M

Speaking of underwhelming performances a week after having their greatest defeat in Alabama, Ole Miss travels to College Station in what probably will be one of the biggest games in recent memory for the Aggies fans. Ole Miss comes in hot, A&M not. After getting manhandled by Mississippi State in Starkville last Saturday, QB Kenny ‘Trill’ Hill and his teammates have something to prove. After hearing that their South Carolina road win has been overvalued and that they’re overrated all week long, you’d think Vegas would have shown them more respect than to just have them as a (-3) favorite right? If you’ve ever been to College Station, you know it’s home of the 12th Man and where high ranking teams go to die. The night crowd will most definitely be in it, disrupting Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace as they make their way through the SEC West. Now that they’re number 3, the Rebels have a huge bullseye on their back. Can they sustain it? If they do then they’re more than just a One Hit Wonder who beat Bama. This line started at (-2.5) in A&M’s favor but has gone up to (-3). Look for Texas A&M to score early and often, deflating the Ole Miss team with an easy victory.

The Pick? Texas A&M (-3)

Upset Special of the Week

2 Auburn at 3 Mississippi State

Are you not entertained? It should be the phrase amongst by which all Saturdays from here on out be shouted from the rooftops. Auburn and Miss. State. College Gameday is going to be there, just like last week. What that crowd at The Grove did was remarkable in Oxford. They were fired up as they should be. One week later the #2 team in Auburn comes to their in state rival Mississippi State in Starkville. After what the Bulldogs did to the Aggies of Texas A&M it should be no surprise if Miss. State gets it done here. Yet even as the #3 team in the country at home, with wins AT LSU and the destruction of A&M, Mississippi State opens up as a (+3) underdog. If there ever was an Upset Special that defines the true nature, then this would be it. Auburn comes in with Playoffs written all over them. If A&M came in with a whimper, then the Tigers will keep it close but one or more turnovers will spell doom for one of these teams and we think it will be Auburn. As said before in last week’s post, this Mississippi State team is for real. I like them by at least 10, with a 2-1 chance that the goal posts come down and the crowd storms the field.

The Pick?

Mississippi State Money Line +125

Miscellaneous Picks

Penn State (+1.5)

LSU (-2.5)

East Carolina/South Florida Over 58

Arkansas (+10)