College Football Playoff Projections Week 12: Two-Loss Teams In the Mix
Nov 8, 2014; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall (14) and quarterback Jeremy Johnson (6) walk off the field after the game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Jordan Hare Stadium. Texas A&M won 41-38. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
Teams that Have an Outside Chance at the College Football Playoff but Need Lots of Help
1. Auburn Tigers, 7-2
Even with the loss to Texas A&M, Auburn still has a chance. Picture Alabama beating Mississippi State and losing to Auburn and Mississippi State losing to Ole Miss along with Alabama while the Tigers and Rebels win out. If you need to know, that would create a four-way tie with Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State all at 6-2. Based on head-to-head and strength of schedule against non-division opponents, Auburn would have a great chance to win that. And if they do and win the SEC Championship, then they would be a two-loss SEC team that should vault the one-loss teams from other conferences. The Tigers are still very much in the race because of that. They just need a little help.
2. Ole Miss Rebels, 8-2
Like the Auburn Tigers, the Ole Miss Rebels still have a chance to win the division as well. And they could win it straight up. If Mississippi State loses to Alabama , Auburn then loses to Georgia and beats Alabama, and Ole Miss wins out, which includes beating Mississippi State, they would be caught in a three-way 6-2 tie with Alabama and Mississippi State. And they would have the head to head, so they go to the SEC Championship game. If they won that, then again, like Auburn, it would be a two-loss SEC team that needs to be vaulted into the College Football Playoff. If they aren’t every member of the Selection Committee should be fired.
3. Duke Blue Devils, 8-1
They may be ranked very low now, but they won’t be if they win out. We’re forgetting something: Duke winning out would mean they get to 12-1, win the ACC championship, and beat Florida State. That’s more than enough to vault them into the College Football Playoff discussion, so technically, Duke is very close to controlling its own destiny. They would obviously vault Florida State, so that’s one obstacle. Then, no more than two of these four scenarios is needed for them to get into the playoff: No Big 12 teams with less than two losses, no Big Ten teams with less than two losses, no Pac-12 teams with less than two losses, no SEC teams with less than two losses. Pretty simple, and very possible.
4. UCLA Bruins, 8-2
Picture this scenario: UCLA wins out, Arizona beats Arizona State, vaulting the Bruins into the Pac-12 Championship game, and the Bruins then beat Oregon. As a conference champion, despite two losses, they would jump ahead of all Pac-12 teams in the rankings and be behind no more than two SEC teams. But they would still need a lot of help to get into the playoff. It would require two of these four things to happen: No Big 12 teams with less than two losses, No Big Ten teams with less than two losses, no more than one SEC team with less than two losses, Florida State loses twice. That’s an unlikely scenario, but it’s very plausible.
5. Arizona Wildcats, 8-2
Guess what: the Wildcats could be in the same situation as UCLA. Imagine the Bruins losing to USC and Arizona beating Arizona State. Then, the Sun Devils, Trojans, and Wildcats would be all caught in a three-way tie. The Pac-12 tiebreaker is very complicated, so it could be very tough to determine who goes at that point. But Arizona could slip into the Pac-12 title game and then beat Oregon again. It’s a long shot, but the same scenario that applied to UCLA would then be applied to Arizona, so these guys have an outside shot at still reaching the College Football Playoff.
6. Kansas State Wildcats, 7-2
Yes, despite losing on Saturday, Kansas State still has a shot. Imagine if they beat Baylor and TCU somehow lost to Texas, or maybe even Iowa State or Kansas. Technically, the Wildcats would then win the Big 12 if they won out. Unfortunately, they would need all of the scenarios presented to UCLA and Arizona, but three of the four would have to happen. However unlikely that is, these guys still have a crazy shot to reach the College Football Playoff, so don’t ignore that fact.