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Saturday Blitz Top 25 Week 13: Alabama, Mississippi St. are Top 2; Florida St. Doesn’t Deserve to be No. 1

By Caleb Calhoun

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As the season winds down, here’s what a weekend of upsets this past Saturday meant in the College Football Playoff picture: almost nothing.

Oh sure, Arizona State is likely out of it now with its second loss, and Nebraska is certainly out of it. But Alabama’s win over Mississippi State has created chaos in opening back up the SEC West race and the possibility of two SEC teams in the playoff.

About the only thing the weekend did do was making it easier for us to bring you our Top 25. And this week, it got a little tricky. It would seem obvious to put Florida State back at No. 1 after beating Miami on the road.

But then again, they still haven’t beaten anybody that great.

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And honestly, Mississippi State should not fall that far down after a loss like that to Alabama.

So we did the only thing we could reasonably do as objective observers. We put the two SEC powers at the top of our Week 13 Top 25 Poll. And we have no regrets about doing that whatsoever.

Remember, our rankings are not based on eye test. They are based solely on record with emphasis on schedule strength, and head-to-head is a tiebreaker between two teams with the same record regardless of schedule strength.

With all of that in mind, see why we didn’t put Florida State at No. 1 and where we put everybody else in our Week 13 Top 25 below.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide, 9-1

Alabama now has solid wins against West Virginia, Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, even Tennessee and Florida, and a huge win against Mississippi State. Their only loss is to a very good Ole Miss team. That means they’ve played two teams currently ranked, which is two more than Florida State has played. And the other six teams are in great position to make a bowl game. That’s an unmatched resume that will only be added to if they beat Auburn and win the SEC championship. This is the best defense in college football, the offense is turning it on, and the win over Mississippi State is the best win any team has had this year. They belong at No. 1.

2. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 9-1

With Alabama at No. 1, we had to pull up the Mississippi State Bulldogs resume next. Their only loss is now to our No. 1 team in the country and the polls’ No. 2 team in the country on the road, and they still have great wins against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Texas A&M. We’re still taking that resume over Florida State’s by a long shot. The loss to Alabama did nothing to prove that this isn’t an elite team and possibly the best team in the country still. There’s no shame in losing to Alabama on the road in November. And given the teams they have already beaten and their schedule strength, they still belong in the Top 2.

3. Florida State Seminoles, 10-0

This knock on Florida State has nothing to do with the way it keeps barely squeaking by to get wins. Honest. It has everything to do with their resume. They have played a bunch of teams with winning records in Oklahoma State, Clemson, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Miami. But how many of those teams are truly elite teams? Not one of them. None of them are in the Top 25 right now, and at least two of those teams have no business even being considered winning teams when you consider their schedules.

Florida State has been squeaking by a cupcake schedule that’s borderline on the level of Marshall’s schedule. They’re lucky to be here.

4. Oregon Ducks, 9-1

We have officially decided to bump the Oregon Ducks over the Big 12 teams into this No. 4 spot. Please note that this has nothing to do with the fact that TCU struggled to beat Kansas over the weekend. For context, we had Baylor over TCU because we had TCU over Oregon based on schedule strength, and Baylor had the head-to-head vs. TCU. But the game against Kansas has dropped TCU’s schedule strength below Oregon. And Baylor’s schedule strength is the most pathetic of all. So that was enough for us to vault the Ducks to No. 4 without playing for right now.

5. Ole Miss Rebels

Based on the strength of schedule criteria that the college basketball RPI uses, the Ole Miss Rebels have the No. 4 ranked strength of schedule. All of the one-loss teams anybody would try to make an argument for putting ahead of them, outside of Oregon, would have a strength of schedule outside of the Top 50. Sorry, but we’re not giving credence to that. And honestly, we’re barely putting Oregon ahead of the Rebels. These guys are back in the SEC West race and the College Football Playoff race. We’re not going to judge these guys too harshly because they have two tough losses to very good teams.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes, 9-1

All of a sudden, the Ohio State Buckeyes, just like the Oregon Ducks, have squeaked by TCU technically based on schedule strength. A huge win against Minnesota that followed the big road win against Michigan State has done that. Yes, we do factor in bad losses, but that was so early in the season, and they have so many other good wins since then, that they belong back in the Top 5. With Indiana and Michigan on the schedule going forward, it’s unlikely for this to stay. But for right now, they certainly belong here. We can’t put them ahead of Ole Miss, though, because their schedule doesn’t come close to Ole Miss’s.

7. Baylor Bears, 8-1

It honestly is inherently wrong that we have to have Baylor in the Top 10 with that No. 113 ranked strength of schedule. But since they beat TCU, who does belong in the Top 10, and both teams have the same record, we have to give the head-to-head to the Bears. It’s only fair, even if they got the head-to-head by holding on at home and riding the wave of the refs to that victory. This team is still at the top of the Big 12 and in control to win the Big 12 championship, so it’s enough for us to put them in the Top 10. But in reality they don’t deserve it.

8. TCU Horned Frogs, 9-1

TCU took a huge hit in our Top 25 not by struggling with Kansas but by simply playing Kansas. The Jayhawks are a terrible team and knocked the schedule strength for these guys down to No. 60. With Iowa State and Texas up next, it will probably stay at this level. And with Baylor still first in the Big 12, TCU likely needs some help over these next two weeks to squeak into the College Football Playoff. It’s sad because these guys should be undefeated right now. But college football is great because of that. It’s not about fair. It’s about forcing you to play every down of every game.

9. UCLA Bruins, 8-2

And just like that, the UCLA Bruins are back in control of their own destiny to win the Pac-12 South. And they could be in for a lot more if things bounce their way. Keep in mind that any of the teams ahead of them could lose, and there’s a very strong off-chance that they sneak into the College Football Playoff if they keep winning. Outside of Ole Miss, they have the best schedule strength of any 2-loss team, and they could have a strong case for being ahead of Ohio State, Baylor, and TCU as well. We’ll keep them here for now, but that could change in a couple of weeks.

10. Georgia Bulldogs, 8-2

The quality win against Auburn alone was enough to put this team back in the Top 10. South Carolina and Florida are not good losses, but those are two teams that could still make a bowl game, and Missouri is now obviously a quality win. Clemson and Arkansas are obviously looking like quality wins, and Tennessee is a decent win. Factoring all that into play, crazy enough, this team is back in the College Football Playoff race. Imagine if they win out and win the SEC Championship. That would include two more quality wins against Georgia Tech and one of the elite SEC West teams. For right now, their quality wins are enough to put them in the Top 10.

11. Michigan State Spartans, 8-2

The Michigan State Spartans are unfortunately in no College Football Playoff race because there is almost no way they can win the Big Ten at this point. But they have the No. 3 best strength of schedule, believe it or not, of any 2-loss team. So it obviously makes sense to put them here. With Ohio State and Oregon as their only losses, they really don’t have anything to be ashamed of as a football team, even if making the College Football Playoff was a goal this year. This team has had a very tough road and still is very good. Winning on the road at Maryland isn’t anything to scoff at.

12. Auburn Tigers, 7-3

It seems crazy to put the Auburn Tigers this high in our rankings with no SEC Championship or College Football Playoff race to play for. But while they are 7-3, they have the No. 2 ranked strength of schedule. So they belong over other 2-loss teams in college football right now, particularly Kansas State, whom they beat on the road earlier this year. Despite the blowout, this is still a Top 15 team. And also, don’t forget that we don’t take margin of victory into account. The Tigers are still one of the best teams in college football.

13. Kansas State Wildcats, 8-2

Speaking of the Kansas State Wildcats, they are still a Top 15 team as well despite the losses to TCU and Auburn. And they also still have a chance to win the Big 12 if TCU slips up somewhere and they win out, which would include beating Baylor. This team is also likely out of the College Football Playoff race, but there is still lots to play for. And they still are a very good football team.

14. Missouri Tigers, 8-2

It’s highly offensive that the Missouri Tigers have not been considered a worthy 2-loss team up to this point. Yes, they have a bad loss to Indiana and an embarrassing blowout loss to Georgia. This team still has the No. 54 ranked strength of schedule, which is better than any of the other 2-loss teams we have left on here. And they still control their own destiny for the SEC East championship. That’s enough to keep them in the Top 25 for right now.

15. Arizona Wildcats, 8-2

The Arizona Wildcats have honestly played a pretty soft schedule, softer than some of the other 2-loss teams below them. But the losses to USC and UCLA are not bad losses, and obviously, the win against Oregon stands out as a quality win that other teams don’t have. It’s enough for them to be at No. 14 right now and ahead of some of the other Pac-12 teams, including…

16. Arizona State Sun Devils, 8-2

Technically, Arizona State doesn’t have a great strength of schedule, either and the loss to Oregon State is a bad loss. But looking at it analytically, USC and Notre Dame, regardless of how overrated they have proven to be, are still better wins than some of the other wins 2-loss teams have. And the loss to UCLA is certainly not a bad loss. So this is still a pretty good 8-2 team that is just barely outside of the Top 15.

17. Wisconsin Badgers, 8-2

Wisconsin is clearly a Top 25 team that is playing as well as anybody right now in college football with the way it has blown out people. But even 500 yards from Melvin Gordon would not change that No. 81 ranked strength of schedule they have. Yes, Nebraska is a quality win, and yes, they played LSU at the beginning of the season. But outside of that, Maryland and Rutgers are just mediocre wins, and they still have to explain that bad loss to Northwestern. This is a good team that has to do more to move up in our book.

18. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 8-2

Yes, despite that embarrassing blowout the Wisconsin Badgers gave the Nebraska Cornhuskers, we are not going to drop the Cornhuskers too far below the Badgers. Based on eye test, Nebraska’s star, Ameer Abdullah, was far more dinged up than Melvin Gordon, and it was in Wisconsin. Style points aside, Nebraska is still and 8-2 Big Ten team, and that’s got to count for something. We’re going to take that into account.

19. Utah Utes, 7-3

At 7-3, the Utah Utes really don’t have that much to be ashamed of outside of a loss to Washington State they never should have had earlier in the year. Still, losses to Arizona State and Oregon are not bad losses, and wins against Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA, and USC are all good wins. They have a good enough resume with their strength of schedule to be ranked ahead of 2-loss teams from the ACC and non-Power Five conferences.

20. Duke Blue Devils, 8-2

We’re calling this the Baylor effect. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets belong in the Top 25 with their resume, but they are in the same division and have the same record as the Duke Blue Devils. And Duke beat them. Therefore, we are going to put Duke ahead of them, despite a terrible strength of schedule and questionable losses to Miami and Virginia Tech. They are still first in the ACC Coastal. Don’t forget that.

21. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 9-2

Technically, Georgia Tech has a tougher strength of schedule than Wisconsin, but they have played only three quality teams all year in our book in Miami, Duke, and Clemson. And none of those teams are that great. They are simply good teams that are nice wins for the Yellow Jackets. And they still have those losses to Duke and North Carolina. Duke belongs ahead of them for that, and the UNC loss is just embarrassing. Still, this is a Top 25 team, so we have them here.

22. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-3 

A win over Texas Tech shouldn’t mean that much, but at 7-3 and with the No. 32 strength of schedule, Oklahoma has a lot more to show for its resume than Colorado State or Marshall at this point. As a result, we are going to put this team in the Top 25 right now despite having absolutely nothing to play for. It’s still a good team that has played a pretty tough schedule so far this year, only losing to the three elite teams of the Big 12: TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor.

23. Clemson Tigers, 7-3

Okay, so Clemson is still in our Top 25, but barely. I guess you could count that as a win for Florida State and Georgia Tech. To be fair, these guys do belong here because they have played a lot of people this year, and having South Carolina still on the schedule won’t hurt it. A 3-loss team with Clemson’s schedule is more than enough to have them in the Top 25 at this point in the year.

24. Colorado State Rams, 9-1

We caved and decided to put the Colorado State Rams in the Top 25 despite a terrible strength of schedule. With a 9-1 record this late in the season as an FBS team, what they’ve done can’t be ignored, and their schedule strength is closer to those of Duke and Baylor than you might think. This team won’t beat anybody significant, but they at least belong in the Top 25.

25. Marshall Thundering Herd, 10-0

And as we have been doing all year for Doc Holliday’s team, the Marshall Thundering Herd get a spot in our Top 25 automatically by being undefeated this late in the season. With a schedule strength worse than that of more than 100 FCS teams, we could make a strong case to keep them out. But we are going to be nice and give them the benefit of the doubt for right now.

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