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College Football Playoff Projections Week 14: Did Mississippi State Stay In?

By Caleb Calhoun

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Nov 22, 2014; Knoxville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers wide receiver DeSean Blair (17) celebrates after the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. Missouri won 29 to 21. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Two-Loss Teams Still In the College Football Playoff Race

1. Missouri Tigers, 9-2

Yes, that’s right, the Missouri Tigers have the best chance of anybody to get to the College Football Playoff with two losses. It sounds crazy, but the Tigers control their own destiny to win the East. And if they win the East and the SEC Championship game, it would vault them over both SEC teams right there. That’s right, the Tigers have a chance to leapfrog two of the teams already in the College Football Playoff. Then, they would have a strong case to be in regardless of what the other teams do. But if they weren’t in, they would be one of the first two teams out. That means it would only take a loss from two of the teams among Florida State, Oregon, Baylor, Ohio State, or TCU to get them in, and that’s assuming they don’t already have a strong case.

2. UCLA Bruins, 9-2

The UCLA Bruins need a lot more help than the Missouri Tigers to get in, but like the Tigers, they control their own destiny to knock one team out. If they win out and were to beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, they would clearly be the highest ranked Pac-12 team. And regardless of whether or not one or two SEC teams get in, they would have an extremely strong case to be one of the teams in the College Football Playoff. Only Florida State, TCU, and Ohio State would have decent cases as one-loss teams. But they could jump Baylor. For argument’s sake, let’s say they don’t. Then, all they would need is two losses among Florida State, Ohio State, TCU, Baylor, and either Mississippi State or Alabama and Missouri.

3. Georgia Bulldogs, 9-2

The Georgia Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Missouri Tigers to possibly squeak into the College Football Playoff. Unlike the Tigers, however, they don’t control their own destiny to win the SEC East. So they need Missouri to lose to have a chance to be in that race, and there is only one final opportunity for that to happen: a loss by Missouri to Arkansas. It seems highly unlikely, but it’s still possible, and it would vault the Dawgs right back into the race. They could then knock off one of the teams in the College Football Playoff and jump ahead of both SEC teams. But there is a major piece of help they need to get there that’s not facing UCLA or Missouri, which is why we have them down here.

4. Arizona Wildcats, 9-2 and Arizona State Sun Devils, 9-2

Both of these teams are in the same boat. They play each other this weekend, and each of them needs a win and a UCLA loss to get to the Pac-12 Championship game. So, essentially, they are in the same boat as UCLA except they need UCLA to lose, which is why we have them at No. 4 on our list and tied for the spot. The winner of this game following a UCLA loss would have the chance to upset Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game, and at that point they would have a strong case to get into the College Football Playoff with two losses as well. They would need the same breaks we listed for UCLA above. Just like the SEC, the Pac-12 has four teams still very much in the College Football Playoff race, and a lot of things could happen over the next two weeks to affect that outcome.

6. Kansas State Wildcats, 8-2

The Kansas State Wildcats need some help to win the Big 12, but if that happens, they have a very good shot at making the College Football Playoff. First, they have to win out, which would eliminate Baylor from contention. Then, they need to have TCU lose, which is most possible on the road against Texas. After that, they could win the Big 12 and knock two teams out of the College Football Playoff race. Despite all of these teams ahead of them, their only focus needs to be on that first, because not all of these teams could jump them at once with the other teams staying in the race. So if they get to the top of the Big 12, then really they’ll be in the position Ohio State is in but needing two teams among the Buckeyes, Pac-12 champion, SEC Champion or either Mississippi State or Alabama, and Florida State to lose.

6. Wisconsin Badgers, 9-2

The Wisconsin Badgers also control their own destiny to win the Big Ten Championship and jump over one team who is in the College Football Playoff race. But then, they need lots and lots of help. With four SEC teams and four Pac-12 teams in the mix, at least one team from each conference is almost certainly making the playoff. So they would need losses from Florida State and TCU or Baylor, or both. There are a few ways they could sneak into the College Football Playoff, but the SEC race has to be narrowed down to one team as well, so there are many things working against the Badgers right now before we can honestly put them in there.

7. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 9-2

The Georgia tech Yellow Jackets would appear to have no shot, but if they beat Georgia and Florida State, then they would leapfrog a team in the College Football Playoff as well. But that would likely just eliminate the ACC team from the playoff because the SEC and Pac-12 are almost assured teams in the playoff, the SEC could have two, the Big Ten has two teams in the race that would both have to lose, and the Big 12 has two teams in the race that would both have to lose. All of that happening is incredibly unlikely. But the Yellow Jackets are at least in the race, technically.

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