Betting the 2014 Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs USC

Now we’re getting somewhere. After a flood of empty seat bowl games with less than stellar names, we finally get to wave some cash to a bowl of substance. A bowl of traditional powerhouses with millions of fans to their credit. National Championships and Heisman Winners crowd the trophy rooms of these two fine institutions in Nebraska and USC and on Saturday night the two square off in the 2014 Holiday Bowl and usher in the 2nd tier of Bowl games that culminates in crowning a national champion. Not to take anything away from the previous bowls, even the ones from this Saturday, but this one has a number that just stands out amongst all the other lines from the day, and your money should follow suit.

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The Game: 2014 National University Holiday Bowl

The Venue: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

The Weather: Clear and 59 Degrees at kick

The Time: 8:00pm ET, ESPN

The Line: USC (-7.5) Over/Under 62 points

Let’s get to the Brass Tacks that could effect this game. The elephant in the room is of course the Nebraska Firing of Bo Pelini on November 30th, leaving only an interim band of assistants to coach on the sidelines. Even if Pelini was on the sideline, it might not effect the spread of this game, which sits at (-7.5) for most books. The latest info is that the general public is betting heavy on the Trojans at about an 80% clip, which means the ‘sharp’ money (professional gamblers) has either yet to come in, or they’re just waiting for that number to rise maybe to (-8) or above to lay the points on Nebraska.

On the USC side of things, it should feel like a home game for the Trojans, as their campus is but a short 2 hour drive from San Diego. Nebraska travels as the best college football team in the nation however so there should be an equal, if not 60% representation of Husker fans in attendance.

The Numbers: Stat Line Nebraska

Nebraska comes in (9-3) on the year with a 5-0 start to begin the season. Late in the year saw them lose to Minnesota and Wisconsin, with the Badgers handing them their worst loss on the year 59-24. The Huskers rank 17th nationally in rushing at 148 yards a game and 13th in points scored at 37 per game. The offensive line has to produce if Nebraska is to have success on the ground with Running Back Ameer Abdullah getting the bulk of the carries. He had over 2300 yards on the year and was considered a Heisman contender early in the season. Defensively, Nebraska allows about 24 points per game, which puts them in the middle of the road. Will the players come through for themselves or show the Bo Pelini loyalty or put in the face of the Nebraska Administration and fan base by not showing up at all?

The Numbers: Stat Line USC

USC had high hopes for the year. Started the college football season as a #9. Ended the year with 4 losses. Had a great win at then 13th ranked Stanford in the 2nd game of the year, lost the following week at Boston College 37-31. It started a precipice that USC just hasn’t come out of yet. Remember the Hail Mary last second play against Arizona State? All they had to do was bat it away. Sun Devils win 38-34. Cody Cessler has the Trojans ranked 15th in the nation with passing yardage and USC ranks 27th in points scored with over 35 a game while holding their opponents to 24.

The Bottom Line and Pick:

The Blitz likes the USC spread, but not that really. If it were at USC (-5.5) then I’d pounce on the spread. The real number lies with the total. The Holiday Bowl will be hard hitting and hard scoring with a lot of 3 and outs or abandoned drives with 1st downs coming at a premium. Nebraska’s players will show, as will their fans. The total of 62 points suggests a shootout of sorts but we think the defenses are going to show up and turn it into an 80’s type defensive classic.

Take the UNDER 62 points and watch a 24-13 type game.

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