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Illinois Fighting Illini Football: 2015 Season Preview and Prediction

By Patrick Schmidt

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Will Illinois Fighting Illini head coach be able to quiet his critics and lead his team to a second straight bowl game and get off the hot seat?

Illinois head coach Tim Beckman has come under fire for his lack of success on the field (12 wins in three years) but allegations of misuse of power from a former player this offseason has put more heat him to win in a big way this year.

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The Illini have improved each year under Beckman with two wins in his first year, four in the second and six in his third, including a berth in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Will Beckman continue that progression and win eight games this year? If he does, he will likely be in the running for the Coach of the Year and guarantee himself at least one more year in Champaign.

Offensive Outlook

The offense was supposed to be okay last year with Oklahoma State transfer quarterback, Wes Lunt leading the Illini offense, but he was injured and had to miss five games and the offense struggled without him. Lunt completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,763 yards for 14 touchdowns to only three interceptions so if he can get through this season unscathed, he should put up pretty strong passing numbers.

Lunt will be challenged without his top receiver, Mike Dudek, who was the team’s biggest surprise of last year when the freshman caught 76 balls for 1,038 yards for six touchdowns. Dudek led the team in all receiving categories but he tore his ACL in spring workouts and will be out for at least the first half of the season, and that may be optimistic.

Geronimo Allison will have to step up as the No. 1 option after 41 receptions for 598 and five touchdowns last year and Malik Turner has to take the next step in his development after having 25 receptions for 256 yards and a score last year as a freshman.

The rushing offense was the real sore spot for this unit, finishing 114th in the nation and 13th in the Big Ten with an average of 117.5 yards per game, but senior running back Josh Ferguson is arguably the team’s best player. He had 735 yards, averaging five yards per carry and eight touchdowns and added 50 catches for 427 yards and two touchdowns. His dual-threat ability out of the backfield will be tested this year as defenses key on him with Dudek out of the lineup.

Ted Karras anchors the offensive line, although he’s recovering from surgery that kept him out of spring practice and sees tackles Christian DiLauro and Austin Schmidt serving as bookends on a line that has to stay healthy with depth a concern.

Defensive Outlook

There’s no Dana Howard, Kevin Hardy or Simeon Rice on this unit. Not even close after finishing last in total, scoring and rush defense in the Big Ten last year. The Illini ranked 109th nationally with an average of 34 point allowed, so there’s plenty of room for improvement for this unit, but the roster may not offer that opportunity.

Defensive end Jihad Ward is the leading returning sacker after having three last year when he also had 8.5 tackles for loss, also the most among returning players. Rob Bain and Jarrod Clements offer run support but depth is a concern here where players like Teko Powell and Paul James will have to play big roles.

Linebacker is a position of pride for the Illini Mason Monheim is the best at the position after leading the team with 111 tackles last year and could be a candidate to be an All-Big Ten performer this year. He also had two interceptions, 6.5 tackles for loss, one sack and forced four fumbles last year. T.J. Neal, Dawuane Smoot, Eric Finney and LaKeith Walls support Monheim in middle of the defense that will be tested often this year.

In the secondary, Taylor Barton returns after making 100 tackles last year and is joined by Eaton Spence, V’Angelo Bentley, JeVaris Little and Clayton Fejedelem, but the Illini only had three interceptions from this group last year.

Prediction

Illinois started 3-1 last year before Lunt was hurt and the Illini limped to a 3-6 record the rest of the way. A similar hot start could be in the works this year with Kent State, Western Illinois and Middle Tennessee State all games they should win in September. A road date to North Carolina will be tough to get a win, but wouldn’t be shocking to see them get a win against another team who has underachieved in recent years, but a 3-1 start is most likely.

Illinois’ conference wins last year were a home upset against Minnesota by four points, a home upset against Penn State by two points and a road win at Northwestern by 14 points, the team’s biggest win of the year. I don’t think Illinois wins at Minnesota or Penn State this year, but a win vs. Northwestern is very possible. Which means Illinois will have to win at Purdue, a team they lost by 11 at home last year, and hope for a win either at Iowa or at home vs Nebraska or Wisconsin, because they’re not beating Ohio State.

Illinois won’t be favored in either of those three games so they’ll need at least one upset this year to get to a bowl game for the second year in a row. I think they fall short with a 5-7 record in what could be Beckman’s last season with the Fighting Illini.

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