Mountain West Predictions: Week 1 picks against the spread

Picking the Mountain West games for Week 1 against the spread.

The last time Boise State played its season opener against Washington (2013), it did not end well. The Broncos were crushed 38-6 in Seattle as the Huskies handed then-coach Chris Petersen his worst loss.

Peterson returns to Boise this Friday for a terrific season opener between the Huskies and No. 24 Boise State, who have all the weapons in place for another run at a major bowl game.

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The Washington-Boise State game is the marquee game involving Mountain West teams for the opening week, but there are 11 other games on the schedule. Starting this week, we’ll offer our predictions for every game on the league schedule and track how we do against the spread. We begin with five Thursday kickoffs:

Thursday, Sept. 3

Abilene Christian at Fresno State (No Line) – Two years after Derek Carr’s departure, the Bulldogs are still looking for a reliable signal-caller. Next up is sophomore Zack Greenlee, who struggled in his one start against Wyoming last season. The Bulldogs have plenty of question marks, but running back Marteze Waller should be enough to roll past the Wildcats, who were picked to finish seventh in the Southland Conference.

Prediction: Fresno State 27, Abilene Christian 15

UC Davis at Nevada (No Line) – Nevada was picked to finish third in the West Division behind San Diego State and Fresno State, but the Wolfpack could leapfrog both teams if quarterback Tyler Stewart proves to be a solid replacement for Cody Fajardo, who accounted for 31 touchdowns last year. The defensive line is a strength, but there are questions in the young secondary. Nevada rolled past UC Davis 36-7 in 2013 and should do the same on Thursday.

Prediction: Nevada 34, UC Davis 14.

New Hampshire at San José State (No Line) – New Hampshire is one of the top FCS teams in the country and could easily give the Spartans a scare in San Jose on Thursday. The Spartans are still deciding on a starting quarterback (senior Joe Gray or junior Kenny Potter), and their offense failed to impress the beat writers during training camp. San Jose State closed last season with six straight losses but should be able to escape here at home.

Prediction: San José State 21, New Hampshire 17

Southern Utah at Utah State (No Line) – Expectations are high at Utah State, which is among the most experienced teams in the nation and could make a run at a major bowl if quarterback Chuckie Keeton can stay healthy. The Aggies have won nine straight home games and should have little trouble against Southern Utah, which was picked to finish eighth in the Big Sky.

Prediction: Utah State 44, Southern Utah 9

Colorado (-7.5) at Hawai‘i — New quarterback Max Wittek starts for Hawai‘i, but the Rainbows will need a stellar effort from the USC transfer to topple the Buffaloes. Colorado finished ninth in the Pac-12 in rushing last season but have made that area a priority during training camp. The late kickoff (11 p.m. Colorado time) won’t stop the Buffaloes from making a strong start.

Prediction: Colorado 27, Hawai’i 17

Friday, September 4

Washington at #24 Boise State (-11.5) – Second-year coach Bryan Harsin went 12-2 last season and has history on his side heading into Friday’s contest. The Broncos have won 19 straight home non-conference games, and they’re 91-11 as a ranked team. That doesn’t bode well for Washington, which won’t announce its starting quarterback until just before game time.

Prediction: Boise State 34, Washington 21

Saturday, September 5

Morgan State at Air Force (No Line) – Air Force bounced back last year with a 10-3 record after going 2-10 in 2013. The Falcons should finish in between those two marks this year, and they’ll start with a convincing win over Morgan State. Jacobi Owens averaged 105.4 rushing yards last season for Air Force, which has won eight straight season openers.

Prediction: Air Force 30, Morgan State 10

Savannah State at Colorado State (No Line) – Coach Mike Bobo makes his debut for Colorado State, which was picked to finish third in the Mountain Division. Wide receiver Rashard Higgins was picked as the preseason offensive player of the year and should put up huge numbers in the opener against Savannah State.

Prediction: Colorado State 41, Savannah State 13

North Dakota at Wyoming (No Line) – Indiana transfer Cameron Coffman takes over at quarterback for Wyoming, which has just eight seniors on its roster. The Cowboys are facing an experienced North Dakota squad but has enough firepower on defense to escape with the home victory.

Prediction: Wyoming 41, North Dakota 13

San Diego at San Diego State (No Line) – Jim Harbaugh began his head coaching career at San Diego, which could use his maniacal energy this Friday against San Diego State. Aztecs running back Donnel Pumphrey is an all-around talent who should run wild against the Toreros. Pumphrey won’t win the Heisman, but he belongs on the radar.

Prediction: San Diego State 31, San Diego State 12

Mississippi Valley State at New Mexico (No Line) – The Lobos were picked to finish sixth in the Mountain Division, which might be a little generous. The Lobos are giving both Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca time at quarterback in the opener, but both could struggle behind an unsettled offensive line. The Lobos have enough to get past the Delta Devils, though.

Prediction: New Mexico 17, Mississippi Valley State 10

UNLV at Northern Illinois (-21) – If you caught our preseason look at UNLV, you know we’re buying what Tony Sanchez is selling. We’re just not willing to buy an upset in the season opener against Northern Illinois, who return 15 starters from last year’s MAC title team. We’ll call Sanchez’s debut a success if the Rebels cover the spread, but we’re not optimistic.

Prediction: Northern Illinois 37, UNLV 13

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