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Mountain West Predictions: Picks against the spread for Week 3

By Doug Carey

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Making predictions against the spread for every game in the Mountain West this week.

Think you had a bad week? Try comparing it to the Mountain West, which went 0-11 in Week 2 non-conference games, including 10 losses by double digits. Ouch.

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The only victory belonged to Air Force, which had the good fortune of facing another Mountain West team, San Jose State. The Falcons topped the Spartans 37-16 for the conference’s lone victory of the week. We’ll never be confused with the top Mountain West historians — do any exist? — but it sure felt like the worst week in league history.

Fortunately, things can only get better. Unfortunately, the Week 3 slate doesn’t offer much of a reprieve. We’d like to be optimistic, but it looks ugly out there, folks.

Results
Last week: 5-6 ATS. Overall: 6-8 ATS
Note: Games involving FCS teams had no line and weren’t included in ATS picks in Week 1.

New Mexico at Arizona State (-28): Lobos are seeking their first win over a Pac-12 foe in seven years, but it won’t come on Friday in Tempe. Sun Devils are due for a breakout performance after two lackluster efforts to start the season. Looking for a ray of hope for the Lobos? They’ve won four of their last five non-conference road games. Pick: Arizona State -28

Idaho State at Boise State (no line): No line here, but we’ll go with Boise in a big way. Broncos have won 15 straight at home.

Wyoming (+24) at Washington State: Hate to pile on at this point, but Wyoming is awful. The Cowboys just might be the worst team in the FBS. Maybe last week’s loss to lowly Eastern Michigan was the low point? We’re afraid it gets real ugly here, with Wazzu looking to build on its comeback win over Rutgers. Pick: Washington State -24

Utah (-14.5) at Fresno State: We know the Bulldogs are 18-2 at home under coach Tim DeRuyter. But most of that was accomplished with Derek Carr at quarterback. Utah will likely be without QB Travis Wilson, but it won’t matter here. The Utes will gear up for their Pac-12 opener at Oregon with a dominant effort. Pick: Utah -14.5

UC Davis at Hawaii: No line, but we sure like Hawaii a lot more than we did a week ago. Have to give Norm Chow’s squad a ton of credit for hanging with the Buckeyes into the fourth quarter last week. Hawaii wins big at home.

UNLV at Michigan (-34): Wolverines are feeling good after a dominant second half against Oregon State, while Rebels will probably be without QB Blake Decker. Rebels are 2-12 against Big Ten teams, and there’s no reason to think they’ll pull the upset here. The Wolverines aren’t a high-scoring squad, though, so take the points. Pick: UNLV +34

Air Force at Michigan State (-26.5): Falcons were in for an uphill battle even with QB Nate Romine, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. Michigan State looked like a playoff team last week and should cruise to the home victory here against the overmatched Falcons. Pick: Michigan State -26.5

Nevada at Texas A&M (-34): Who setup this Mountain West schedule, anyway? Just brutal. Nevada looked flat against Arizona, leading coach Brian Polian to melt down at least twice. Things don’t get any easier against the Aggies, who have won 19 straight non-conference home games. Make it 20. Pick: Texas A&M -34

San Jose State (+7.5) at Oregon State: Spartans were outscored 21-0 in fourth quarter against Air Force and can’t seem to decide on a quarterback. Beavers have a good one in freshman Seth Collins, who started strong against Michigan before fading in the second half. We like the Beavers to cover at home. Pick: Oregon State -7.5

Colorado (-4) at Colorado State: Rams have won two of the last three games in the series and should be able bounce back from its disappointing overtime loss to Minnesota. We really like Colorado State if star wideout Rashard Higgins (ankle) is cleared to play. Pick: Colorado State +4

South Alabama at San Diego State (-17.5): Aztecs were a huge disappointment against California, and there’s legitimate reason to worry about their quarterback situation. They were probably a bit overrated coming into the season, but they’ll have enough to roll past the Jaguars, who have lost four straight road games. Pick: San Diego State -17.5

Utah State (+5.5) at Washington: Huskies routed Sacramento State 49-0 as freshman QB Jake Browning put up huge numbers. Aggies have struggled in their first two games and need a complete effort to upset Washington. We’re just not liking the vibe in Logan right now, so we’ll go with the Huskies. Pick: Washington -5.5

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