Pac-12: Week four predictions, previews, and picks against the spread

Sep 19, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal guard Johnny Caspers (57) and long snapper C.J. Kelle r(68) celebrate after the game against the Southern California Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Stanford defeated USC 41-31. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers

Corvallis, Oregon

The Line: Stanford -15

Not surprising the line is this high given the emotional victory that head coach David Shaw’s Cardinal earned against the preseason Pac-12 darlings, the USC Trojans. Stanford finally opened up the offense and senior quarterback Kevin Hogan responded by completing 18 of 23 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns.

The punishing rushing game also picked up the pace, gaining 195 yards on 49 carries, brutalized the Trojan front line. On the other sideline will be an Oregon State squad that responded to a complete thrashing in week two by the Michigan Wolverines by running all over, around, and through a bad San Jose State squad. Watch the game on Fox Sports One, Friday at 6:00PM mountain time.

Keys To The Game:

Against the Wolverines, Oregon State was helpless against the power running game preferred by Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan ran the ball 48 times for 225 yards, or 4.7 yards per carry. That is not going to get it done against anyone, and especially not against a team like the Cardinal. Harbaugh is trying to recreate in the Midwest what he started in Palo Alto, California.

Stanford loves to be physical and to run the ball. If the Beavers cannot stop the Cardinal rushing attack, this game will be over quickly. On defense, Oregon State is trying to develop a similar power running scheme, but right now with a struggling freshman quarterback in Seth Collins, Stanford can load up the box and stuff the run game. Collins and company will have to go to the air early and have success if they expect to have any chance of pulling the upset.

The Prediction:

Oregon State was my surprise pick in the Pac-12 North this year, not to win it but to be much improved. It is clear now that this program is still a year or two away. Collins is just not ready to play against top competition and the Beavers’ defensive line will not be up the task of stopping the physically dominant Stanford offense.

Look for the Cardinal to run over the Beavers, and while Shaw will do his best to keep Oregon State in the game, the talent level will eventually win out. However, 15 points is more than I’m willing to give a conservative head coach with a history of playing poorly against bad teams.

Final score: Stanford 27, Oregon State 13.

Next: Nicholls State at Colorado