Pac-12: Week four predictions, previews, and picks against the spread

Sep 19, 2015; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Taylor Alie (12) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Georgia State Panthers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks

Eugene, Oregon

The Line: Oregon -11.5

The Oregon Ducks got back on the winning track in week three with a cupcake game against FCS Georgia State, although they still allowed 28 points. Utah ground out another win, 45-24, over Fresno State. Utah is a fine team, but they have had trouble, historically, with these fast paced, up-tempo offenses like Oregon. Last year the Utes got clobbered at home, 51-27, and then followed up two weeks later by losing to another up tempo team in Arizona, 42-10. You can watch this one on Fox at 4:30PM, pacific time on Saturday.

Keys To The Game:

This is a bad match-up for the Utes, as the speed of the Oregon Ducks and teams like them has given the Utes trouble. However, with the dominant defense and a ball hawking secondary, maybe this year will be different. The Utes have picked off opposing quarterbacks five times in the first three weeks, with only Cal having more picks in the conference(7).

Teams try to throw on Utah and not test a front seven that is giving up just 3.5 yards per carry so far on the year, good for second in the conference behind Washington. Oregon has the second best rushing offense in the Pac-12, but is eighth in passing. On paper, this looks like the Utes should have a chance, but history does say otherwise.

The Prediction:

The Utah offense is just not good enough to keep up with even this year’s watered down version of the Oregon blur. The Ducks manage to find enough space in the Utah defense to run out to an early lead, forcing the Utes to put the ball in the air. Utah plays hard, but their offense just cannot keep up and eventually Oregon wears down that defense.

Final score: Oregon 42, Utah 24.

Next: USC At Arizona State