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College Football Betting: Three best bets for Week 4

By Nate Jacobson

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The best bets for the Week 4 slate of games across college football sees a potential upset special with a MAC team knocking off a team that nearly won their division in the Big Ten last year.

Last week I had a 4-1 week to improve my season record to 7-5-1. Louisville played a really poor game but covered on a fourth quarter kick return for a touchdown.

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Notre Dame and Stanford won straight up as underdogs, and stormed Texas stormed back to get within the point spread against California. My only loss was my lone favorite pick in Alabama, and they had no shot at covering the spread against Ole Miss.

I had some trouble picking games this week especially with a few teams on bye as they prepare for the conference season. I was able to find three games that I really like. I will likely pick more than three games each week the rest of the season but I wanted to be very selective with a smaller slate of game. I will start with a MAC team I think can win the game outright against a Big Ten team in Minnesota:

Ohio at Minnesota (-10.5)

When: Saturday at 3:30 ET

The line for this game opened at 13 points and money on the underdog has brought the spread to Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. I still like Ohio even though the best number is gone.

Ohio started the season 3-0, including a 21-10 win against Marshall that was sandwiched between victories over Southeastern Louisiana. The offense has been serviceable led by quarterback Derrius Vick and the defense has played well this season despite not playing the best competition.

This play is more of a pick against Minnesota. Their offense hasn’t showed anything that makes me want to pick them as a double-digit favorite. They needed overtime to scored 23 points and beat Colorado State in Week 2. Last week they only defeated Kent State 10-7. It’s the same Kent State team that gave up 52 points to Illinois in Week 1. Quarterback Mitch Leidner hasn’t been impressive at all this season and Minnesota is only gaining 3.5 yards per rush. The team clearly misses running back David Cobb and tight end Maxx Williams who are in the NFL.

Minnesota also might be looking ahead to their conference opener against ranked Northwestern next week. The spread is too high in this game and I can see Ohio winning straight up.

Pick: Ohio (+10.5)

Middle Tennessee State at Illinois (-6)

When: Saturday at 4:00 ET

One team is in the Big Ten and the other is in Conference-USA but the talent level may be close to the same.

Middle Tennessee State has already scored 70 points in two games this season. The games were against Jacksonville State and Charlotte but still impressive showings from the offense led by quarterback

. The game in between those two blowouts was a 37-10 loss to Alabama. The Blue Raiders didn’t score much but they did gain 275 yards and points would’ve been there if they didn’t turn the ball over four times.

Illinois’ talent level is low because of the poor job Tim Beckman did before he was fired in Champaign. The team responded well opening the season 2-0 after Beckman was dismissed. Then last week Illinois was overmatched by North Carolina in a 48-14 rout that was never close.

Middle Tennessee State will take this game very seriously against a Power Five school and think this one will be decided by a field goal.

Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+6)

Missouri at Kentucky (-2.5)

When: Saturday at 7:30 ET

It’s never easy to bet under 44.5 points in any college football game. A few turnovers or a return touchdown could end any hopes of winning the bet. However, when you have two bad offenses facing each other it’s a little more comforting. I see a real struggle for point when Missouri travels to Kentucky and the first to 21 will win this game.

Kentucky is coming off a 14-9 loss to Florida. The Gators have a great defense but the Wildcats offensive numbers were ugly. Quarterback Patrick Towles was 8-for-24 for 126 yards and two interceptions. Towles’ completion percentage is just over 50 percent this season and he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.

Missouri had an even worse game on the offensive side of the ball in their 9-6 win over UConn last week. One touchdown and 270 yards against one of the worst AAC teams isn’t good enough now with SEC play underway. Maty Mauk has struggled at quarterback and the inexperienced wide receiver group hasn’t done him any favors. Missouri is expected to get running back Russell Hansbrough back from injury but the offensive line will need to greatly improve to bolster the running game.

I don’t know who will win this game so that’s why I am going with the under. Kentucky is a favorite because they are at home but Missouri has won 11 straight true road games. The strength for both of these teams is their defense and this point total will stay low.

Pick: Under 44.5

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